It's Thursday, November 8th and We have lost the WH

[Laura PourMeADrink]

And the first votes haven't even been cast. Plain and simple. Men won't vote for her (WSJ 53-39 Against HCR). Rudy has closed the gap (WSJ 46-45). For everyone who said months ago that it didn't matter that half the people hate her - are you still saying that now?

Elect-ability. Elect-ability. Elect-ability. Every other Dem candidate should be screaming this every day before Iowa!

And the brilliance of nominating a governor - Rudy? You can't pin any of B*'s mess on him:
* Heating Oil Record high
* GM record loss
* Dollar record low
* Uninsured record high
* Gas prices rising
* Trade deficit record high
* National debt record high
* 1 in 4 homeless are Vets !
* Outsourcing.
* Katrina travesty.

So what issues can she beat him on? Perhaps torture (Although being mayor over the city that got hit - may give him a pass to spin the emotions). Perhaps where he said he would preemptively nuke Iran. (Although being against this won't woo over many redneck men and she's quite the Iran hawk) Perhaps health care (and she failed last time on this). That's all I can think of.

Depressing as it is, the only hope in hell we have now is to get 70 Democratic Senators

[Birthmark]

1. I agree completely.

Fat lot of good that'll do, though. :)

[Laura PourMeADrink]

5. It's like you see a train wreck coming and you can't stop it ! I guess

the only things we could do would be to give money to another candidate and go to Iowa and beg people not to vote for her. But then, you are between a rock and a hard place - if you trash her too much - you hurt her chances against Rudy even more.

[Birthmark]

7. I've decided to not watch.

I'm gonna find some frolicking puppies to look at instead. Puppies are good. :)

[Laura PourMeADrink]

9. I'm with you. Like why do something that

will deliberately break your heart - again !

[Birthmark]

16. See?

Those two will never break your heart...unless it's by doing something heartbreakingly cute. And even if they do break your heart, they have puppy breath? Can Rudy or Hillary say that? Nope.

[pamela]

29. What kind of puppies are they?

Sorry for the off topic post.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

36. I don't know - but I saw the pic yesterday and made it my screensaver

you are so right about dogs never breaking your heart - except a while ago, I went downstairs and found my dog, Larry, had pulled everything out of purse and was chewing on it. :>)

[aquart]

2. Rudy is NOT carrying New York.

And as for California, nobody disses a fireman in California. Firefighters hate Rudy's guts.

Now what the rest of the country will do, I can't say. But that's two big states that will not vote for him.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

10. You are right - she will probably take NY and CA for sure. But,

so did Kerry. I suppose the fraud apparatus is still in place in FLA - write that state off. She's still got a lead in Ohio.

What about CA voting to split their electoral votes? Has that happened yet?

[Le Taz Hot]

32. We thought it was dead for awhile

but they've resurrected it. The good news is that there's not a lot of popular support for it. But then again, there's not been a lot of media coverage about it either.

CA will, most likely, go to Clinton but I think it might be VERY close. People out here just don't seem to like her much. CA also may very well have a low voter turnout due to: a) we have no Senators running in 2008 and b) I don't believe that either R or D candidate will be overly-popular.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

37. see post #35 - 47% support and GOP on the case !

[Le Taz Hot]

42. Then I stand corrected.

I just haven't heard much talk about it so, except for those carrying the agenda, it's not much of a hot topic here -- yet.

If they succeed in getting it on the ballot it may very well have a good chance of passing. I don't need to remind everyone that the fine people of my great state of California elected the Gropenator -- twice. We're not known for looking too deeply at issues. We seem to be real impressed with shiny things and famous people. :eyes:

[Laura PourMeADrink]

47. I wonder how does it work? A ballot initiative? Is it total number

of people in the state who vote for it all added together. If that's the case it probably won't win.

[Le Taz Hot]

55. The ballot initiative, or Proposition,

is California's way of getting around its own state legislature. An initiative must have x-number of verifiable, valid signatures in order to qualify to be on the ballot. Once it's on the ballot, the proposition is an up/down, yes/no vote -- all that's needed to pass or fail is a plurality on one side or the other.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

49. BTW, did you see Jon Stewart on your Gov? hillarious..nt

[PetrusMonsFormicarum]

3. The People never had the WH

The last president to "give" the White House to the American People was stabbed in the back by a kindly old man who used to make movies with a chimpanzee co-star. And then EVERYBODY took a turn twisting that blade, especially the military/industrial complex that was already envisioning today's chimpish douchebaq dictator. We miss you, Jimmy.

IMO neither "The-fish-was-thaaaaaaaat-big" Guiliani or HRC deserve the WH, and if they are indeed the choices we have, we all should get used to four more years of more of the same old shit. Unless the candidate has used the following phrase "immediate pullout" he or she will not get my vote.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

11. You are right. That's why I like Edwards. But so much for that

We in the left won't go out in droves for HRC - and the hard right won't go out in droves for Rudy. so that will be a wash - and then it will be close and then they'll rig it again.

No wonder AssHat is so confident that he will "fix" it to make us have to stay in Iraq forever. All Rudy had to promise was - stay in Iraq and appoint conservative judges and the prize is yours.

[rodeodance]

4. so if your speculation is carried to election, we can blame MEN?

[Birthmark]

6. Yes, I think that will be very helpful.

sarcasm

[Laura PourMeADrink]

8. No - It just so happens that most of the people who don't like her

are men. You can't really blame anyone since no one can control the way people will vote. It is what it is, plain and simple. She does not have the likeability to win. The only thing that can be done is for everyone else who is running - or elder statesmen - to speak out about the inevitability of a loss.

[rasputin1952]

12. Oh for Pete's sake...a year before the election, no one even

knows who the candidates will be and for all we know, the current regime could destroy life as we know it.

Ghouliani is a pinhead. It is simply far too early to even think about worrying about this.

Add to that, the basic reality that for us D's to lose this election, our future candidate would have to be incredibly inept, (possible, but highly unlikely considering what the R's have), and the speculation is unfouonded.

I don't think the Ghoul will be the R candiate anyway, he is essentially despised by almost everyone, even the terror stricken sheep on the Right think he little more than a lot of hot air.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

14. It's called destiny. Unless something dramatically changes -

Rudy and HRC will be the candidates. The fix is in - at least on the Repuke side - there is absolutely no other way to explain Pat Robertson supporting Rudy. Sure, a lot of people hate Rudy - but they're mostly concentrated in NY which they will concede to Hillary.

And you are right the election is a year away. But Super Tuesday is not and that's when it will be over.

[rasputin1952]

23. I don't agree, there may be a few problems with how things

are done, but "destiny", no way.

We create the future, there is no established "destiny", we far too often, forget that we truly do have the power to get things done.

I cannot fall into a CT yipe thing about how things are "meant to be". I don't even have a candidate yet, I think from what I've seen so far, they are all pretty shallow, and the one I might lean toward is getting no support at all.

I figure it this way, each one of them is just one gaffe away from being history. The ghoul isn't worth a tinkers dam, and everyone knows it. Hillary has a LOT of baggage, not the least of which is the very real shudder people should feel about a bush, Clinton, bush, Clinton scenario. I have nothing against Hillary, but the whole "dynasty thing is really disturbing to me.

ANYTHING can happen, one of the candidates could get seriously ill, one could die, another might just drop out, or someone might jump in, (unlikely, but possible).

As far as Pat Robertson....his backing spells the kiss of death to whomever receives such a "blessing". The majority of Americans are finally viewing the "religious Right" in a dim light. They have helped to put bush and others in power, people don't like that, and even the RR's membership is fractured.

It ain't over till it's over. I won't lay down and speak of inevitability, doesn't suit me...:)

[Laura PourMeADrink]

39. Well maybe destiny was the wrong word - certain, probable

may be more descriptive. Destiny implies it is meant to be.

What it "CT"? Connecticut ?

I agree, anything can happen -- love your line "just one gaffe away from being history". But shit - we only have til Super Tuesday for her to make that gaffe. And she's too smart to do that. Then we are stuck.

I do wonder though. If you were a Rudy supporter, would you suddenly say, no way, if Robertson likes him too? Can't see it, sorry. His support and influence to the nutcases probably weighs more. And all he has to do is tell them that Rudy will appoint a conservative judge who will overturn Roe v Wade.

[rasputin1952]

73. If I were a Rudy supporter....

I'd sit in the dark and probably accept Robertson's choice...:scared:

As for "CT', sorry, really a little odd there on my part, it is for "Conspiracy Theory". I always think that when I hear/read things out of the "it has to be mold"...:blush:

Anyway, I don't think Rudy will be the nominee, and oddly enough, I don't Hillary will be either. Between the two of them, they have enough bagge to overload Ellis Island at the height of Immigration.

I'm not sure what will happen, and while I don't have a candidate chosen yet, Rudy and Hillary aren't even in the running for me. I have yet to hear Hillary come up w/anything of substance or answer a direct question...as for Rudy, I wouldn't vote for an R if he/she were running as the best head of lettuce...:)

[Clark2008]

75. You don't speak to the American people very often, do you?

Dems are perceived as weak to the average Joe and Jane Independent - they'll lean Republian no matter what they say they'll do. The only thing that would lean them left is for the Dems in Congress to do something to help them - pass SOMETHING that would help the middle class - ANYTHING.

Seriously, most Americans, by virtue of the corporate media they believe to be "liberally" biased, think Republicans are just naturally better than Democrats. It takes a lot to switch that perception.

[sampsonblk]

13. Yes, I am still saying that now. No question.

All the major GOP candidates have huge flaws - real ones - which will prevent them from getting the numbers they need to win a general election.

Fundies are probably going to sit this one out. Romney and Giuliani will find it nearly impossible to get the type of fundie support they'll need.

There more of us than there are of them. The GOP needs either a miracle or another poorly-run campaign. All we need to do is pick someone who can actually campaign, and we'll win handily.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

18. I bet they are working on the fundies as we speak... Like:

Look Bush fucked everything up - we have to go with someone more moderate - but don't worry we've got him to promise to appoint right-wing judges - only way to eventually eliminate abortion.

AND - you know how many of them think that women should not be in positions of authority and be subjugated by men. That may fuel them up - got to stop the woman !

[sampsonblk]

28. Ummm... these aren't people you can talk to

There's a picture of Rudy in drag. Plus marriage issues.
Romney's a mormon. Changes positions more than a porn star.

Lipstick isn't going to change those facts. Fundies are not good at listening.

[riverdeep]

15. First off, it's a year away.

Assuming these two are our candidates in the first place. Second, Hillary absolutely can beat Rudy. Polling even right now is 4 points (avg.) in favor of Hillary.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_giuliani_vs_clinton-227.html

Rudy has a lot of things going against him. One, the things that come out of his mouth. Two, he's physically hideous. Don't discount that. Along a similar line, he has a speech impediment. Laugh if you want, but our electorate is deeply influenced by stuff like this. Three, the Bush years WILL stick to Rudy, simply by him being a Republican. Fourth, the Clinton campaign team is way better than Rudy's and she's got more money. When the defense industry is throwing more money to the dem candidate than the pub, this thing is most assuredly not in the bag for Rudy.

Also, don't discount Hillary's ability to win people over. She's a good speaker and good campaigner. I don't want Hillary as my first choice, but let's not slit our wrists just yet if she turns out to be.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

19. OMG - LOL - " he's physically hideous" - Today WSJ 46-45 HRC...

[riverdeep]

27. Take a look at that link.

That's the closest of any poll. Gallup has +6 for Clinton, Newsweek has +4 for Clinton. +1 is an outlier.

And yes, Rudy 'Nosferatu' Giuliani IS hideous. We may differ on how much it will mean, but come on.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

30. Yep, what stuck me so badly this morning was that I had been

watching the polls and felt she would win - based on the numbers that you cite. But, this WSJ poll is new and it shows a downward trend starting.

Crazy as it sounds, it would be good if it was even worse so that people could see it before Iowa.

Oh, I agree with you on Rudy. He is hideous ! And very mean spirited. But there's not much stark difference in her demeanor to me. Actually, if she softened up a tad, it might help.

[EFerrari]

17. Yesterday, an editor at Politico was on Washington Journal

and he said the Republicans were desperate for the Democrats to run HRC because she mobilizes their base. Now, people here have said the same thing but this was the first time I heard anyone else say it. It was after one of those Republics called and frothed at the mouth about Vince Foster and the rest of the cr@p about the Clintons.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

20. sure - many of them don't even think women should be allowed to

decide what time to have dinner let alone that they should be running a country. Men rule, not women.

[leftchick]

22. why in the world did rupert throw her a fundraiser?

one would have to be a moran to not see the writing on the wall. Hillary is a win win for the neocons...

[FreeStateDemocrat]

21. Hillary's coronation is the only chance the pukes have in 2008 & corp money will buy it for them.

[Lyric]

26. Yes, because we all know that corporations just hate Senator Clinton.

Why, every single day GD is just chock *full* of posts about the deep division between Hillary and corporate America. :sarcasm:

One minute she's a corporate hound, the next minute she's a corporate enemy to be defeated.
Can this knee-jerk reactionary bashing get any more ridiculous? :eyes:

[pamela]

24. She's not the nominee yet. I still have hope.

No one thought Kerry would be the nominee at this stage of the game in 2003. Or Clinton in 91 or Carter in 75. I still have hopes (albeit, diminishing) that Obama or Edwards will be the nominee.

[WilliamPitt]

25. Disagree

A lot of the GOP base will stay home if they nominate Rudy, 12-15% at a guess, and Republicans don't win without their whole base turning out.

Senator Clinton has a solid chance of winning most, if not all, of the Gore states. Her campaign has infrastructure in swing states like AK and MO going back to her husband's victories in '92 and '96, which may prove crucial if Gore2000 states like PA and WI get wobbly. She could very well be honored with unprecedented Black voter turnout nationally if the name "Clinton" is as popular as it used to be among that part of the Dem base...

...and New Hampshire has gone Blue, having voted Dem in '04 for the first time since Truman and having bounced long-time GOP Rep. Charlie Bass for Paul Hodes in '06...

...and if Gore had won NH in 2000, Florida would have been a footnote. Clinton will probably win NH in '08, because there are 26,000 Democrats in Cheshire County who will vote for her, and that'll be enough.

Math: Gore states + NH = win. Nothing is certain of course, but the numbers are favorable, buttressed again by Dem turnout for all those Senate races. Add the MO and AK wrinkles, plus W-VA maybe going Dem again after absorbing Bush's mortal screwing of the coalminers...

Nothing is certain except this: you're wrong, we've lost nothing yet.

[Tyler Durden]

33. Don't know if I agree with you on the GOP base staying home, Will.

Remember: WE are the party of the non-herded cats.

George Bush didn't say ONE WORD about opposing abortion, and the base "assumed" he did. He's said plenty since then, but then he was trying look "Moderate."

I think that, as usual, the GOP base would vote for Satan Himself if he ran as a registered Republican.

[DinahMoeHum]

34. Will, could you list us the "Gore states" to refresh our memory?

Also, there are other states trending Democratic such as the Rocky Mountain states, Virginia, and Kentucky.

:kick:

[WilliamPitt]

44. In blue

[Laura PourMeADrink]

35. Don't count on MO - Rudy's ahead of her there and PA will be

very wobbily indeed. What you say might work if: (1) there was not the insurmountable FACT that half the people say they will NEVER vote for her, and (2) we had cleaned up the election system. Someone like Rudy would probably not blink an eye to some "help" with the results.

And don't forget the initiative in CA to split electoral votes they are priming for a June ballot referendum:
http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-na-electoral23oct23,1,1709924.story

And:
Poll Shows Potential Support For California Vote-Splitting Initiative
By Eric Kleefeld - November 6, 2007, 9:11AM
A SurveyUSA poll released yesterday shows plurality support for splitting the state's electoral votes, with 47% in favor to 34% against. Some of the state's Republicans, such as Congressman Darrell Issa, are currently working to bring just such a measure up as a voter initiative, which if passed would deliver about 20 electors to the GOP.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

57. If They Split Cali's EC Votes It Probably Doesn't Matter Who We Nominate ; For A Generation

That being said the meaure is unconstitutional...See Artricle ll Section 1... I doubt the Democratic Secretary of State would certify the results. I also doubt the intitiative ever gets on the ballot...


She's leading Rudi in MO


http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReportEmail.aspx?g=85f5230e-01f6-4d1b-8cbe-7d3c130373dd


and PA


http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1327.xml?ReleaseID=1117

[lonestarnot]

31. We do not matter, so where does the we come in exactly?

:shrug:

[La Lioness Priyanka]

38. the desperation to attack hillary on du is hillarious. cant find any substance resort to drama. nt

[Laura PourMeADrink]

41. Hope you find it just as hillarious when Rudy's in the WH

[lukasahero]

62. Are you planning to vote for Rudy?

You can only control your vote and you can work to sway the minds of others.

Unless you have a crystal ball, you don't know what's going to happen but it sure sounds like you're not going to do anything to improve anyone's chances to take the WH - except maybe Rudy's....

[Laura PourMeADrink]

74. Are you freakin kidding - vote for Rudy? pulleeeze.

[spanone]

40. she can beat him on the issue that she's not a fucking right wing bat-shit crazy wacko

[onelittleindian]

48. spanone

I think rudy is not a bat shit right wing wacko, that is why he is close. If you consider him right wing you must have your head in the sand. Many do not like hillary but would support john edwards.

[Clark2008]

76. Men would not support Edwards either.

He's seen as too metro-sexual in the South, Great Plains and mid-West.

Try again.

[SlowDownFast]

43. Run, Al, Run!!!

Run, Al, Run!!!

[Laura PourMeADrink]

51. Yep. He's starting to piss me off. Guess this is his "fuck you" to

the nation that took away the election from him.

[cali]

45. Bwahahahahahah

:rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

you folks with your crystal balls sure are feckless. You count on no one remembering your dozens of bad predictions.

Bookmarked.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

50. Yikes. I would right now bet you a million dollars that Rudy and

Hillary will be the nominees - and that Rudy will win. I hate it - I hate it like crazy. But my intuition is so strong on this - I would bet the farm on it. You just can not elect someone who half the people hate. It's mathematically impossible - no crystal balls needed.

[cali]

53. Anything can happen

It's a three way race in Iowa. Bernie Kerik is being indicted tomorrow. There are simply too many variables to make those kinds of predictions.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

54. Well, I hope you are right Cali. I will gladly pay you the million:>)

It just doesn't seem like it should be this way. With all the mess the Idiot has made - we should be waltzing in there with no competition. And here we are neck and neck. It's enormously frustrating.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

58. Half The People Don't Hate Her...

http://www.pollingreport.com/C2.htm#Hillary

[Laura PourMeADrink]

59. Right - Maybe not hate - but would NEVER vote for her.

Poll: Half of Americans would 'never' vote for Sen. Clinton RAW STORY
Published: Sunday October 21, 2007

Bad news for New York's junior senator.

While Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY) has won broad support in national tracking polls in her quest for the presidency, the former first lady is steeped in negative attitudes, according to a Zogby International poll released Sunday.

Half of likely voters nationwide said they would never vote for New York Sen. Hillary Clinton, in a poll Zogby conducted Oct. 11-15, 2007, with a margin of error of +/– 1.0 percentage point.

"This is up from 46% who said they could never vote for Clinton in a Zogby International telephone survey conducted in early March,"

[DemocratSinceBirth]

60. Cherry Picking Polls Is Intellectually Dishonest

Your turn.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

63. And While We're At It The Poll You Cited In Your OP Showed

And while we're at it the poll you cited in your op showed Rudi running well against Obama and Edwards and actually beating Gore by a point...

HRC is a fixed entity...Folks knows her her weaknesses and strengths... Folks only know Rudi's strengths...He is portrayed as a twenty first century Winston Churchill because he showed up at disaster scene... The truth is much more complex and that will be revealed in the fullness of time...

[Laura PourMeADrink]

67. But don't you see? Obama and Edwards and Gore are NOT

in the mix anymore. It doesn't matter how Rudy polls against them. I merely mention the electability subject as their only hope to pull this out.

I do agree - about what you say on Rudy - there's potential there to bring out many weaknesses. Especially about a pre-emptive nuke strike.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

70. That's One Poll

If you look at all the polls HRC is running four or so points ahead of Rudi...

In any case


Folks have heard only good things about Obama and Rudi but they are essentially tied (in this poll)...


Folks have heard only good things about Edwards and Rudi but they are essentially tied (in this poll)...


Folks have heard good things and bad thing about Hillary and only good things about Rudi but they are essentially tied (in this poll)...

One can infer from that set of facts HRC is in the best position among the top three and Rudi's position is the most tenuous...

[Laura PourMeADrink]

64. How about being wise enough to look at the worst case scenario

poll?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

66. The Worst Case

Dukakis blew a seventeen point convention lead so anything could happen...

I look at (all) the evidence... Polling, past elections, political environment, and strengths and weaknesses of candidates and don't see Rudi beating Hillary... I think The Hill holds all the Kerry states and wins FL and OH ...

51-47- 2 pop votes

>300 EC Votes...

[Laura PourMeADrink]

68. Wing and a prayer. Factor in the fraud quotient and we're doomed again.

[mdmc]

46. No one will ever be able to beat the Clintons, no matter how many

dirty tricks they play.

If Bigdog can keep from cheatin on HRC, the dems will have the white house again.

[Raine]

52. Agree

with Hillary the nominee we're doomed. :-(

[DemocratSinceBirth]

56. Respectfully, You Omitted Certain Facts

From the poll (you) cited HRC runs as well* against Rudi as John Edwards and Barack Obama and better than Al Gore who actually loses against Rudi:

http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/wsjnbcpoll20071108.pdf




Clinton 46%

Rudi 45%


Edwards 45%

Rudi 44%


Obama 44%

Rudi 42%

Rudi 47%

Gore 46%


However when you look at all the polls HRC is beating Rudi by a slightly more comfortable margin:

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh08gen.htm




http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/national.html

[Laura PourMeADrink]

61. My only point from this WSJ poll was that it's trending badly - for her to beat him.

I've been watching these numbers for months. Just a couple months ago Edwards was beating Rudy like crazy. And in just that short amount of time it miraculously shifted.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

65. Here's Literally Dozens Of Polls

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/national.html

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh08gen.htm


The fact she has any lead at all after her week from Hell indicates the depth of her support...


You said you would bet a million dollars on Rudi...I would literally bet my life on the Hill...

She's smarter, tougher, more shrewd, and meaner whe she has to be than Rudi...

[Laura PourMeADrink]

69. Wow now that's amazing. The last time I bet my life was when

I became convinced B* rigged Florida. I'm going to stick with the million (I don't have) for the time being.:>)

Funny that you praise her meanness/shrewdness = that's what I hate about her.

Hope you are right - don't want you to die ! Besides, want a Dem to win (even if I have to hold my nose through the whole process)

[DemocratSinceBirth]

71. I Don't Have A Problem With Being Mean To Those Who Deserve It

By rewarding good and punishing evil we encourage more of the former and less of the latter... That being said I don't like people who are gratuitously mean... I don't think HRC's worst enemies would day she's gratuitously mean...

[KingFlorez]

72. It's a little early to be conceding the election

And besides, Guiliani isn't all that great of a candidate, most of the conservative base doesn't even like him and most centrist liberals see him as a complete phony. We don't have to pin Bush's mess on him, Guiliani has a record of his own that's not too good.