The U.S. neoconservative agenda to Sacrifice the Fifth Fleet - The New Pearl Harbor

[kpete]

The U.S. neoconservative agenda to Sacrifice the Fifth Fleet - The New Pearl Harbor

Neoconservatives within the Bush administration are willing to sacrifice much or all of the U.S. Fifth Fleet by militarily provoking Iran to launch its anti-ship cruise missile arsenal in order to justify 'total war' against Iran, and force regime change.

by Michael E. Salla, M.A., Ph.D.



The Bush administration has covered up and ignored dissenting Pentagon war games analysis that suggests an attack on Iran's nuclear or military facilities will lead directly to the annihilation of the Navy's Fifth Fleet now stationed in the Persian Gulf. Lt. General Paul Van Riper led a hypothetical Persian Gulf state in the 2002 Millennium Challenge war games that resulted in the destruction of the Fifth Fleet. His experience and conclusions regarding the vulnerability of the Fifth Fleet to an asymmetrical military conflict and the implications for a war against Iran have been ignored. Neoconservatives within the Bush administration are currently aggressively promoting a range of military actions against Iran that will culminate in it attacking the U.S. Navy's Fifth Fleet with sophisticated cruise anti-ship missiles. They are ignoring Van Riper's experiences in the Millennium Challenge and how it applies to the current nuclear conflict with Iran.

Iran has sufficient quantities of cruise missiles to destroy much or all of the Fifth Fleet which is within range of Iran's mobile missile launchers strategically located along its mountainous terrain overlooking the Persian Gulf. The Bush administration is deliberately downplaying the vulnerability of the Fifth Fleet to Iran's advanced missile technology which has been purchased from Russia and China since the late 1990's. The most sophisticated of Iran's cruise missiles are the 'Sunburn' and 'Yakhonts'. These are missiles against which U.S. military experts conclude modern warships have no effective defence. By deliberately provoking an Iranian retaliation to U.S. military actions, the neoconservatives will knowingly sacrifice much or all of the Fifth Fleet. This will culminate in a new Pearl Harbor that will create the right political environment for total war against Iran, and expanded military actions in the Persian Gulf region.

.............

Conclusions

The above scenario is very plausible given the military capacities of Iran's anti-ship cruise missiles and the U.S. Navy's vulnerability to these while operating in the Persian Gulf. The Bush administration has hidden from the American public the full extent of the Fifth Fleet's vulnerability, and how it could be trapped and destroyed in a full scale conflict with Iran. This is best evidenced by the controversial decision to downplay the real results of the Millennium Challenge war games and the dissenting views of Lt. General Van Riper over the lessons to be learned. This culminated in General Van Riper joining a group of retired generals in calling for the resignation of Donald Rumsfeld.

Neo-conservatives within the Bush administration are fully aware of the vulnerability of the Fifth Fleet, yet have at times tried to place up to three carrier groups in the Persian Gulf which would only augment U.S. losses in any war with Iran. Yet the Bush administration has still attempted to move forward with plans for nuclear, conventional and/or covert attacks on Iran which would precipitate much of the terrible scenario described above.


MUCH more at:
http://www.agoracosmopolitan.com/home/Frontpage/2007/11/08/01932.html

[Captain Hilts]

1. Don't fuck with the 5th fleet. They can take car of themselves, thank you very much. nt

[nadinbrzezinski]

7. Look at a map

we will loose ships

they have the capabiltiies

[Captain Hilts]

21. In Gulf War I they put the oldest carrier in the fleet closest in.

They're trained to deal with this stuff.

I don't like what's going on, but that's what the navy's supposed to be able to do. Only one carrier in Norfolk when I left on Tuesday.

[Selatius]

50. Saddam had nothing comparable to Russian Sunburn missiles.

Apples and oranges, I fear. Unfortunately, Iran has been buying Sunburns from Russia for a while. If a war comes, I would think the fleet admiral would make sure the fleet is in the Arabian Sea, not the Persian Gulf, to avoid the missile barrage.

[Jacobin]

36. General Custer?

Is that you?

[Captain Hilts]

37. No, just someone who grew up on Navy bases and in Navy housing. nt

[lonestarnot]

43. That's Cluster, Cluster Fuck.

[Richard Steele]

40. What part of "no effective defense" are you not getting?

QUOTE:
"The most sophisticated of Iran's cruise missiles
are the 'Sunburn' and 'Yakhonts'. These are missiles
against which U.S. military experts conclude modern
warships have no effective defence (sic)."


Against these weapons, our ships CANNOT "take care of themselves".
And the people sending them over there KNOW that.

[DrBlix]

45. Anti Ship Sunburn Missiles

They KNOW about these missiles and just don't CARE.
=====
QUOTE:
"The most sophisticated of Iran's cruise missiles are the 'Sunburn' and 'Yakhonts'.
.
These are missiles against which U.S. military experts conclude modern warships have no effective defence (sic)."
.
Against these weapons, our ships CANNOT "take care of themselves".
.
And the people sending them over there KNOW that.

[puerco-bellies]

48. I rode a DD-G in the Persian Gulf, The Admiral is not talking out of his ass.

It is not a matter of speaking ill of the 5th Fleet. Enough A.S.C.M.'s can be simultaneously launched to overwhelm close in defenses as good and the Vulcan Phalanx system. Just a few shore launched cruse missiles at mach 3+ from a short distance it will be extremely difficult to successfully defend against.

The Iranians will launch a dozen and could launch up to a hundred at a high value target. I am a proud Navy vet, and am confident in their abilities. I also know that putting a C.V. in the gulf would have never been done in my time when there was the danger of an attack. Only one modern warhead is needed to sink or severely damage a carrier, one out of hundreds that will be launched at each and every one.

I am convinced these Neocons looked the other way in order for 9/11 to happen. They care as little for the sailors out there as they do for us here.

[lovuian]

2. I believe this and that Bush & Cheney are traitors to America

and destroying our military is their agenda

the fifth fleet is very vulnerable but they don't care

they want WWIII

[Turbineguy]

3. How many Americans

is Bush willing to kill?

Lots.

[Stephanie]

38. Exactly. How many sailors are on those ships?

Anyone know?

[Love Bug]

4. I am ex-Navy and I'm speechless at this

Where the hell is the Secretary of the Navy?

[TomInTib]

12. Here's your effing SecNav

And from what I gather, he has made no appearances or statements sice early March, '07.

http://www.navy.mil/navydata/bios/navybio.asp?bioID=325



Donald C. Winter is the 74th Secretary of the Navy, sworn into office on Jan. 3, 2006. As Secretary of the Navy, Dr. Winter leads America's Navy and Marine Corps Team and is responsible for an annual budget in excess of $125 billion and almost 900,000 people.

Prior to joining the administration of President George W. Bush, Dr. Winter served as a corporate vice president and president of Northrop Grumman's Mission Systems sector. In that position he oversaw operation of the business and its 18,000 employees, providing information technology systems and services; systems engineering and analysis; systems development and integration; scientific, engineering, and technical services; and enterprise management services. Dr. Winter also served on the company's corporate policy council.

Previously, Dr. Winter served as president and CEO of TRW Systems; vice president and deputy general manager for group development of TRW’s Space & Electronics business; and vice president and general manager of the defense systems division of TRW. From 1980 to 1982, he was with the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency as program manager for space acquisition, tracking, and pointing programs.

[speedoo]

17. Useless dweeb from the military industrial complex.

Whose only qualification is his support of Bushco, including $$$$$$.

[sicksicksick_N_tired]

23. EEK!!!!

OMG!

:cry: :grr:

DISTURBING!!!!!

i am speechless

[TahitiNut]

49. Not only does he have no naval service record, he has no military service.

Dr. Winter earned a bachelor’s degree (with highest distinction) in physics from the University of Rochester in 1969. He received a master’s degree and a doctorate in physics from the University of Michigan in 1970 and 1972, respectively.

I'm sure we'd have been glad to have him in 1969 ... and in Nam in 1970. Those were fun times.

[Mme. Defarge]

5. Mon Dieu!

K&R

[nadinbrzezinski]

6. Ok getting into their heads... I know I will need to take some aspirin

oy the headache

They have not hidden anything...

WHAT? BUT...

In their world view nothing of this sort can happen... in their computer games and simulations this cannot happen...

And yes I fear this is worst than hiding it. This is a pathology.

And a dangerous one too.

Now the effect of this we have seen in Iraq... they still don't believe their lying eyes....

And that is prima fasciae evidence.

Now, where did I place that damn advil? Head hurts... trying to get into the neo con world view can be painful

Oh and lying is also very straussian and I'd say pathological

[sicksicksick_N_tired]

16. It is simple. They believe THEY CREATE REALITY and, naturally, outcome as well.

They are an empire, now. They are greater than human and expect historians to chase their tails as the "empire" keeps creating reality.

They are MANIC and have the real-life power to be super-charged manic.

I've always wondered what it FEELS like to believe oneself "benevolent" and "all-powerful". May I never be cursed with a belief I am "benevolent" and "all-powerful" over anyone other than my own self.

Yes. The whole club is pathological,...pathologically evil because the members all either believe themselves above human or believe in SUB-human existence.

Their beliefs are worse than mere pathological yet accepted as "normal".

[nadinbrzezinski]

24. We had a long discusion with a strausian here over the last two days

you got a peek into the world view

[seemslikeadream]

31. Oh but I am such a conspiracy tinfoil crazy fool to think that this might happen

Where are all my "friends"? I don't see any of them in this thread.

[nadinbrzezinski]

32. THey are like crickets

on things like this

:-)

[ORDagnabbit]

8. most every war we've had since the spanish-american war has started

with pre-knowledge attack was coming and letting happen or a faked attack.

[SnowGoose]

39. Oh yea? What about Iraq?

We knew that no attack was coming, but we went in anyways.

I'm not being snarky to you, actually I think you're right.
I'm just drowning in the irony of this 'preemptive' war.

[Richard Steele]

41. They recycled the 9/11 attack to serve that purpose for Iraq.

And they did it so well, a big chunk of US citizens
STILL think Iraq was somehow connected to it.

[sicksicksick_N_tired]

9. The neocons no longer hold complete power, anymore, though. Except, Cheney, who is still,...

,...playing all sides: neocons, corporacrats and military brass.

There is no doubt, whatsoever,...IF Cheney has his way, he will cause another world war. Attacking Iran, no matter how arranged, would certainly CAUSE another world war. And, we would suffer, terribly. Cheney wouldn't suffer and his constituents would make a bloody killing from the profits. But, this country and her people would suffer, a LOT.

[nadinbrzezinski]

13. When all is said and done

no... he would not make a killing in the profits... a killing yes, but not an economic profit

When all is said and done, assuming this does not go nuclear... you can bet they will eiether be dead from self inflicted wounds, like any good cowards, or at an international military tribunal... for war crimes

And the nation... under occupation

[sicksicksick_N_tired]

20. I believe,...

,...eventually, everyone pays their bill.

If I live to see these truly evil people tried before the whole world, my heart will sing for humanity. I can't honestly say I hold even a grain of hope for that level of justice in my lifetime BUT I am always open to embracing others' grain of hope because I believe, eventually, everyone pays their bill in some way or another.

[bonito]

10. Holy shit! Read the whole article folks

MUCH more is an understatement.

[kpete]

29. understatement

is my MO

[bonito]

34. No, actually you do quite well

Happy to share this time in space with ya!

[kestrel91316]

11. When are people going to listen???

THEY ARE SEEKING TO TRIGGER ARMAGEDDON. THEY WANT NUCLEAR WAR. THEY WANT ALL OF US DEAD WHO ARE NOT BIBLE-THUMPING FUNDIES, AND WAR WITH IRAN IS HOW THEY ARE GOING TO DO IT. THEY KNOW HOW RUSSIA AND CHINA WILL RESPOND.

And here I sit on the West Coast, where China's nukes will land.

[nadinbrzezinski]

14. Neocons are not fundies

or rather they are but the religiious kind

Armagedon is not in their computer simulations... just like Iraq, they expect things to go well, not the way any neutral observer expects this to go

[Auntie Bush]

15. This needs to be sent to Jim Webb!

He'd be interested in getting involved and people will liston.

[speedoo]

18. K&R, and bookmarked. nt

[harun]

19. They don't care if the fifth fleet is taken out, that would just let

them spend more money on a new fleet. A win/win for the neo-conservatives.

[smoogatz]

22. Yep. It'd be like shooting ducks in a bathtub.

Read this bit about the Falklands War if you don't think these big ships are incredibly vulnerable to missile attack.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falklands_War#Sinking_of_HMS_Sheffield

On edit: that said, I think if they actually went through with it it's the kind of thing that could trigger a military coup in this country.

[dflprincess]

25. I'd rather see a mutiny before they go through with it.

n/t

[smoogatz]

26. No you wouldn't.

It would be a huge, ugly constitutional crisis. It'd really put the republic in serious jeopardy. Better that they drop a warning here and there and Cheney takes them seriously, and the whole deal is averted.

[Lilith Velkor]

46. That warning was dropped when they leaked the nukes story

How seriously the Veep takes them is anyone's guess.

[windoe]

27. So its a race to impeach first

like Mr Kuchinich said, before this scenario is played out. My God we have to impeach Darth before he starts WWIII. This is not a drill.

[doublethink]

28. An archived article from 2005 hit on these same scenarios ...

"Onward To Iran" ... in the Energy Bulletin .... here's a excerpt ....... and good article for everyone to review .......

Because the likely outcomes are unpalatable, and because the ongoing occupation of neighboring Iraq is not going well, American officials would find it nearly impossible to launch an attack on Iran without an adequate immediate pretext. Therefore Iran must be enticed to attack the US, or must be made to appear to do so. The most likely scenario would be for Israel to take the lead in bombing Iranian nuclear facilities. To Tehran, this would signify US involvement, as Israeli planes would likely fly over US-controlled Iraqi air space. Iran would then predictably retaliate against both Israel and the US, perhaps by launching Scud missiles toward Israel and Sunburn cruise missiles against one or more American warships stationed in the Persian Gulf. The loss of an aircraft carrier or battleship with hundreds or thousands of American sailors on board could then summon a sufficient emotional response from the American people so that the full resources of the nation (including an immediate re-institution of the draft) could be mustered behind a three-pronged invasion of Iran from Iraq, Afghanistan, and the Gulf. -snip-

rest of article "Onward To Iran" here .... http://www.energybulletin.net/4634.html


note: The chickens are coming home to roost. Peace

[nadinbrzezinski]

30. kick

[CGowen]

33. it's not like the president is talking about WWIII... ah.. wait forget it n/t

[lovuian]

35. kick

:kick:

[SnowGoose]

42. Read more about Paul Van Riper & millennium challenge in "Blink"

I recently listened to the audio version of the book "Blink" by Malcolm Gladwell (Damn, I love the public library), which describes the millennium challenge exercise. Good book, BTW. Better than I expected.

The book is about thought processes rather than military strategy, but a relevant nugget I gleaned from the description was that the "red team" (the simulated Gulf state commanded by Van Riper) didn't only attack US military assets. He also lobbed a few theater missiles at other Gulf states (US allies), and some targeted political assassinations.

I don't know much about military tactics, but if I were sitting in Iran, gaming all these scenarios out, I wouldn't just dismiss the big Saudi tanker-loading station just across the gulf. There are probably some anti-missile countermeasures in place, but sooner or later one or two would get through, and I can't imagine what that would do to the global economy (as I understand it, the loading station is one hell of a bottleneck). Besides, they friggin hate the Saudis.

The American military would be able to run for a while on the strategic reserve, but only for a finite period, and that would make the reserve unavailable to support the US economy. It might be a more militarily significant loss than the ships and sailors.

The main thing I got from the section about this war game was that the red team defeated the US military by thinking simple, and outside the box. They had already reasoned what the Americans would be doing, and simply adjusted accordingly, so as not to fall into the traps. The Iranians aren't stupid, and they've got people working through all these scenarios right this very second, and devising compensatory tactics. Count on it.

For what little it's worth, I don't think Bushco really plans on an attack. I think the bellicose rhetoric is a desperately needed diversion from all the fuckups.

Please, let me be right, just this one time.

[Eric J in MN]

44. At Pearl Harbor, the Japanese struck first.

I don't think Iranians responding to a US attack by attacking the US would be analogous.

[Lilith Velkor]

47. Iran may not do what we expect them to

It's been a habit with them.

Remember how the neocons were so sure Iran was gonna step in when Israel attacked Lebanon?

[bonito]

51. Kick

[jgraz]

52. Does anyone know how many anti-ship missiles Iran has?

I've heard it's in the thousands, but I can't find anything from The Google. Anyone have any definitive info?