hillary can NEVER win......

[Gato Moteado]

....in texas.

if she's the nominee she probably won't do so well in oklahoma, alabama, georgia, arizona, and south carolina either.

just sayin'.

[acmavm]

1. She'll sink like a rock in Nebraska

[Hoof Hearted]

30. Yeah, and our 5 electoral college votes

just has ALL the candidates beating down our door, don't it?

Nebraska is starting to bleed a little less red, but none of the current Dem candidates would have any chance here. That's just the facts on the ground.

The only way a Dem presidential candidate wins here is if the Repub nominee slaps T.O. in the face with a dead fish and then poops on his shoe. Then we're in.

[Hieronymus]

2. John Edwards has the far better chance.

[onehandle]

17. Yep. nt

[brazos121200]

3. Neither will any other Democratic candidate carry these states,

although a powerful Democrat might have a chance in Arizona. Bill carried it back in 1996.

[napi21]

12. Thanks fort being the voice of reason! I lived in Tx, SC, & now Ga.

There's NO Democrat I can think of who could win any of those States!

I watched a focus group on cspan that was being lead by the polster who used to always do the Dem. focus groups, but this time he was doing an all Pub group. He did it quite well, and if I hadn't seen him in the past, there's no way I would have ever known he was a former Dem polster. I was really surprised at how many of the 12 people didn't know many of the minor Pub candidates! They went over a lot of the reasons why people were supporting their chosen candidate, and then the really telling question came:

"What would any of the Dem candidates have to say or do to get your support?" The answer was NOTHING! Each and every one of the 12 in the group said the same thing...there are 3 kinds of people in the world. 1. Republicans, 2. Moderates, and 3. Democrats...IN THAT ORDER! They actually said "There is NOTHING worse than a Democrat!" In all fairness, I guess I shouldn't have been surprised. If someone asked us as Dems "What would any of the Pub candidates have to say or do to get our support?" we'd probably same thing. Candidates on both sides are completely dependant on the middle of the roaders acthe Country to actually win the Presidency. I live in Ga. now, and I don't see a majority of independants in THIS State in my lifetime!

[brazos121200]

28. I know many people here in Texas who would die before they would vote Democratic-ever!.

I don't know what the Dems did to so anger Texas voters but it must have been something awful. If the Republican party disbanded these people, and there are many of them, would write in Republican or something.

[Gato Moteado]

31. and i wish they would!

there'd be a lot less assholes in texas if they did.

[Warpy]

4. She can win, but it's going to be a tough sell

and she'd better stop trying to triangulate herself into a corner right now.

[SteppingRazor]

5. And Utah. She's doomed in Utah.

:popcorn:


(On a sadder note, what's with all the serious responses to this obviously joking thread? Du has totally lost it's sense of humor over the last couple months.)

[JeanGrey]

34. Correct. She will never carry Utah, Oklahoma or any of the

southern states. I doubt she can carry Florida. I just don't think she can do it.

[NightWatcher]

6. there you go, trying to pick a candidate that could actually win the election

why do you hate amurika

[skipos]

7. If you look at the trends

of the last 5 Presidential elections, you can get an idea what states are likely to flip, and what states aren't.

For example... 77d means in 1988, D.C. votes 77% more for Dukakis than the national average.


STRONG DEM (183 electoral votes)
District of Columbia: 77d, 70d, 67d, 76d, 82d
Massachusetts: 16d (Dukakis P), 13d, 25d, 27d, 28d (Kerry P)
Rhode Island: 19d, 12d, 24d, 29d, 23d
Vermont: 4d, 10d, 14d, 9d, 23d
New York: 12d, 10d, 20d (Kemp VP) 24d, 21d
Maryland: 5d, 9d, 7d, 16d, 15d
Connecticut: 3d, 1d, 10d, 17d (Lieberman VP) 13d
Illinois: 6d, 9d, 9d, 12d, 13d
California: 4d, 8d, 4d, 11d, 12d
Maine: 4d, 3d, 12d, 5d, 11d
Hawaii: 17d, 6d, 17d, 18d, 11d
Delaware: 5r, 3d, 7d, 13d, 10d
Washington: 9d, 6d, 4d, 5d, 10d
New Jersey: 6r, 3r, 9d, 15d, 10d

LIKELY DEM (49 electoral votes)
Michigan: 1r, 2d, 5d, 5d, 6d
Pennsylvania: 5d, 4d, 1d, 4d, 5d
Oregon: 12d, 4d, 1r, 1r, 7d
Minnesota: 15d, 6d, 8d, 2d, 6d

WEAK DEM (14 electoral votes)
New Hampshire: 19r, 4r, 1r, 2r, 4d
Wisconsin: 11d, 1r, 2d, 1r, 3d

WEAK REP (12 electoral votes)
Iowa: 18d, 1d, 2d, 1r, 2d
New Mexico: 3d, 3d, 1r, 1r, 2d

WEAK REP, TRENDING DEM (14 electoral votes)
Nevada: 13r, 3r, 8r, 4r, 1r
Colorado: 1r, 1r, 10r, 9r, 3r

LIKELY REP, TRENDING DEM (13 electoral votes)
Virginia: 13r, 10r, 10r, 9r, 6r

LIKELY REP (74 electoral votes)
Florida: 15r, 8r, 3r, 1r, 3r
Ohio: 3r, 4r, 2r, 4r, 1d
Missouri: 4d, 5d, 2r, 4r, 5r
Arkansas: 6r, 12d(Clinton P), 8d (Clinton P), 6r, 7r
Arizona: 13r, 8r, 6r, 7r, 8r

STRONG REP (167 electoral votes)
North Carolina: 9r, 6r, 13r, 13r, 10r (Edwards VP)
West Virginia: 12d, 7d, 6d, 7r, 10r
Tennessee: 9r, 1r (Gore VP) 6r (Gore VP) 4r (Gore P) 12r
Louisiana: 2r, 1r, 4d, 8r, 12r
Georgia: 13r, 5r, 10r, 12r, 14r
South Carolina: 16r, 14r, 14r, 16r, 15r
Mississippi: 13r, 14r, 14r, 17r, 17r
Kentucky: 4r, 2r, 8r, 16r, 17r
Montana: 2d, 3r, 11r, 26r, 18r
Indiana: 12r (Quayle VP), 12r (Quayle VP), 14r, 16r, 18r
South Dakota: 1d,9r, 12r, 23r, 19r
Texas: 5r (HW Bush P vs. Bentsen VP) 10r (HW Bush P) 13r, 22r (Bush P), 20r (Bush P)
Kansas: 6r, 11r, 27r (Dole P) 21r 23r
Alaska: 16r, 15r, 26r, 31r, 23r
Alabama: 12r, 12r, 15r, 15r, 23r
North Dakota: 5r, 18r, 15r, 28r, 25r
Oklahoma: 9r, 14r, 16r, 22r, 29r
Nebraska: 13r, 23r, 27r, 30r, 30r
Idaho: 18r, 19r, 27r, 40r, 36r
Wyoming: 15r, 11r, 22r, 41r (Cheney VP), 37r (Cheney VP)
Utah: 26r, 24r, 30r, 41r, 43r

[Swamp Rat]

8. I do not know a single human being in Louisiana who likes her.

Everyone I know dislikes her, some quite passionately.

Maybe Mary Landrieu likes her? :shrug:

[juajen]

20. I live in Louisiana and know that all of my extended family are

supporting her, and many people they know are also supporting her. I think you're great swamp rat, but you can't possibly know everyone in Louisiana.

[Swamp Rat]

21. I try

:D

I do, however, like the Hillary of 40 years ago. ;) :hi:

[Baby Snooks]

9. Never say never in Texas...

You have Democratic women in Texas who vote for Kay Bailey Hutchison so you may have Republican women in Texas who will vote for Hillary Clinton. What may block that is this unholy alliance with the Bushes. Not everyone in Texas loves the Bushes. Not every Republican that is.

[Gato Moteado]

13. never in texas

lived there 11 years. it's hopeless. the dems there are as hardcore as anywhere else, there just aren't enough of them. there are two bush loving repukes for every normal person there.

[Baby Snooks]

22. Republican Women in Texas

Some are not the hardcore flag-waving Bible-thumping "little women" that most would expect. Kay Bailey Hutchison hides it well at times, but she is a moderate and at times even a liberal in her positions. You cannot say the word "pro-choice" without starting a stampede in Texas but reality is quite a few Republican women in Texas are "pro-choice."

Ordinarily I would agree with you about never in Texas. Except for the Republican women. Who have minds of their own. They just don't let the men know it. Strange things do happen in Texas.

[La Lioness Priyanka]

10. which dem would win texas?

[Gato Moteado]

11. none

nt

[La Lioness Priyanka]

15. thats what i thought

[cali]

14. no dem is going to win in those states.

I imagine Clinton can win with the states Kerry took and Ohio. NM is trending blue. If you're talking the mechanics of winning, she can win. And the republican field this year is particularly weak, and the party is in danger of splitting. But yeah, she's divisive and she has high negatives that haven't changed appreciably.

[sandrakae]

16. So what. Shes gonna take

Maine
New Hampshire
Vermont
Rhode Island
Massachusetts
Connecticut
New York
Pennsylvania
Ohio
New Jersey
Maryland
Iowa
Oregon
California
Washington
Washington DC
Minnesota
Wisconsin
Michigan
Illinois
Hawaii

Which by my calculations gives her 279.

Nevada
New Mexico
Virginia
Florida
Arkansas

Are all within her grasp.

[Bitwit1234]

18. Hell Obama won't take any state

Although he is qualified to be president of this country, do you people in your wildest dreams think that a black person, man or woman at this time in history would win..hell no. People are still too prejudiced and racist. Look at all the fighting and squabbling over immigration. Complaining of brown people. NO..America is too racist to support a black candidate.

And even tho I think she is the best of all the candidates, I don't think people would vote for a woman. There are too damn many macho men out there. Who think that a woman couldn't run this country. But the men have had it long enough and it is a damn filthy mess. IT WILL REALLY TAKE A WOMAN'S HAND TO CLEAN HOUSE. KICK ASS HILLARY.

[Odin2005]

23. Oh fuck, not this BS again.

I've run into a lot of moderate Republicans that really like Obama (at the same time, these people viciously hate Hillary). If you think Obama can't be elected just because of his skin color you are stuck in the 60s.

[Gato Moteado]

24. well he won't win texas either

we just haven't had much luck in texas ever since the dixiecrats switched over to the repukes where they belong.

[Blue_In_AK]

19. She will not do well in Alaska either. n/t

[Disturbed]

25. John Edwards is the most viable to garner the Pres. job.

That is not an endorsement, only my best guess after studying the stats.

[Blue_In_AK]

27. That seems right to me.

I am still undecided, but Edwards does impress me more than Clinton or Obama, neither of whom I trust. I know everybody thinks Obama gave a hell of a speech at the J&J thing, but he kind of scared me actually ... a little Messianic for my taste.

[leaninglib]

26. Nor could any of the other nominees win in those red states.

...just replyin'

[brazos121200]

29. Most likely states to flip to Dems next year are

Ohio, Iowa, Missouri, Arkansas, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and maybe West Virginia. With any luck, that should be enough.

[Gato Moteado]

32. just ohio would be enough....

...if we get all of those i'll throw a party and all of DU will be invited!

[ellie]

33. I don't know.

I saw Bill Clinton speak at a conference last week. He received two standing ovations and is such a brilliant speaker that all he really needs to do is to campaign full-time for her and I think it would be over.

just sayin'.

[Balbus]

35. Well, since Texas got the person of their choice the last two presidential elections...

I'm not too enthusiastic about Texas getting another president of their choice. Texas doesn't like Hillary? I consider that an endorsement for Hillary...