Rasmussen. NH tightening considerably!!!!

[Perky]

Election 2008: New Hampshire Democratic Primary
New Hampshire: Clinton Lead Falls To Single Digits
Saturday, December 01, 2007

In New Hampshire, home to the first-in-the-nation Presidential Primary, Hillary Clinton’s lead over Barack Obama is now measured in single digits.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone poll of the state’s Likely Primary Voters shows Clinton with 33% of the vote while Obama attracts 26%. John Edwards is the top choice for 15% while Bill Richardson earns 9% of the vote. Joe Biden and Dennis Kucinich are each preferred by 4%.

Clinton’s seven-point advantage is down from a ten-point lead in early November.
In October, Clinton held a sixteen-point advantage over Obama.
A month earlier, Clinton was ahead by twenty-three percentage points.

Clinton leads Obama by fourteen among women but trails by three among men. Last month, she led by seventeen among women and was tied among men.

Sixty-seven percent (67%) of Clinton’s supporters are “certain” they will vote for her. Sixty-three percent (63%) of Obama’s supporters are that certain along with 49% of those who plan to vote for Edwards.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_2008__1/2008_presidential_election/new_hampshire/election_2008_new_hampshire_democratic_primary

At this rate, HRC and Obama will be tied by the time of the election.

[Perky]

1. kick

[Perry Logan]

2. When Hillary takes office, she should close Rasmussen down immediately.

[Perky]

3. wow... snf I thought the NeoCons were bad...

You can't be serious.

[Alexander]

4. Spoken like a true fascist.

[book_worm]

5. what about the Des Moines Register which shows Obama leading Hillary in Iowa?

Should she close that paper down too?

[Alexander]

6. This race looks like it's tilting towards Obama.

If he wins both Iowa and New Hampshire, it's over for Hillary.

[Strelnikov_]

7. I am beginning to think both parties, and particularly the Reich

with the recent emergence of bootygate, are heading toward brokered conventions. Then again, the Reich oligarchs are probably not going to allow their boy to suffer the humiliation of not winning the primary. It is going to be an interesting few months.

Regarding the Democrats, I still think H. Clinton will end up with the most delegates. But with her negatives, barring a collapse by the other candidates, I cannot see an '04 scenario where the primary electorate rush to the Clinton camp because of inevitability (re: Kerry win in Iowa followed by a poll a few days later showing he would beat The Chimp). Most people have already made up their mind on H. Clinton, one way or the other. And I am not considering B. Obama, even if he wins Iowa, in a scenario similar to Kerry because H. Clinton has broad, solid support (the machine candidate, or as close as one comes in the Democratic party).

With the recent surge by B. Obama, it is possible he could end up with more delegates. But I just don't see anyone, other than H. Clinton, picking up >50%, and as I stated above, that is looking more remote.

[book_worm]

8. It's an interesting thought but brokered conventions just don't happen anymore it seems.

the last one that was really close at the time of the convention was GOP in '76 when Ford and Reagan had roughly the same number of delegates. Then Reagan made a tactical error by naming a liberal running mate (Schwieker of PA) before the convention which backfired on him. I often wonder what would have happened if Reagan hadn't done that? I think Carter would have beat him in '76 and we wouldn't have had a Reagan in 1980.

[Strelnikov_]

9. You are right. I forgot superdelegates

The superdelegates will ensure that there is a nominee before the convention.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20071202/ap_po/superdelegates_4;_ylt=AvYUDnnCr4MDD8K.XpJBie8E1vAI

Clinton has the endorsement of 169 superdelegates. She is followed by Obama, 63; John Edwards, 34; Bill Richardson, 25; Chris Dodd, 17; Joe Biden, 8, and Dennis Kucinich, 2. Superdelegates tend to support the front-runner, said David Rohde, a political scientist at Duke University. "They want to be on the winning side," he said.

. . .

Superdelegates are the ultimate party insiders, including all Democratic members of Congress, as well as a number of other elected officials and members of the Democratic National Committee. They will attend the convention next summer with about 3,200 other delegates who have been pledged to various presidential candidates based on the outcomes of primaries and party caucuses in their states.

Democratic candidates need a little more than 2,000 delegates to claim the nomination. That can make the superdelegates, who will number about 800 after state parties select a few more this summer, important players in choosing a nominee.