What 2004 "red state" is most likely to go blue in 2008?

[marmar]

Poll question: What 2004 "red state" is most likely to go blue in 2008?

I'm going to place my bet on Nevada.... Get it: Place my bet? :rofl: I crack myself up!!!

Anyway, bad puns aside, which state is MOST likely to join Vermont, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Michigan, Illinois, Minnesota, Washington, California, New York, Connecticut, Hawaii, DC, Maryland, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Rhode Island, Delaware and Maine in the blue next year?

[Webster Green]

1. Virginia is going..

Gut feeling

[Lasher]

33. I agree, and it's more than a hunch.

Senator John Warner (R) is retiring and Governor Mark Warner (D) is running for the Senate seat. Early polling indicates Virginia is the most likely of all Democratic pickups in the Senate. This will surely have an influence on the presidential election.

[Virginia Dare]

45. Agree, not much love for repubs here right now...n/t

[Horse with no Name]

2. Texas.

If you look at the votes last Presidential cycle...ALL of the major cities were at least purple.
It's the rural parts that voted in red blocks.

[Radical Activist]

3. Depends on the nominee.

Some candidates don't have good appeal in middle America.

I voted Ohio because the GOP has been really screwing up there. Its trending Democratic. It would help if Obama is on the ticket to increase black turnout in Cleveland.

[HughBeaumont]

43. Yes - it depends on the nominee.

Any combination of Edwards and Obama would be a take-it-to-the-bank slam-dunk.

With Madam Windsock as your nominee . . . errrr, not so sure.

[The Magistrate]

4. Ohio, Ma'am, Will Be Ours

[marmar]

7. It's Sir, Sir.

:)

[silverojo]

12. If the Repukes don't steal the votes, that is

:grr: :mad:

[Hippo_Tron]

15. A significantly more difficult task when the Secretary of State doesn't work for your campaign

[Hoof Hearted]

18. I drove over 900 miles and trusted in the goodness of a DU stranger

whose home I stayed in to volunteer in Ohio in '04. I stood out in the rain for 14 hours in a white wind-breaker I still proudly wear that says "VOTING RIGHTS TEAM".

It was, quite simply, one of the best experiences of my life.

[begin_within]

5. I think New Mexico is really a blue state, and the vote was mangled in 2004.

I feel strongly that New Mexico will be blue in 2008.

[Arugula Latte]

28. I agree that the vote was manipulated there in '04.

I hope there has been some progress in protecting the vote there ... I haven't heard much about New Mexico in that regard.

[begin_within]

44. I haven't either and I haven't heard Richardson talking about it, but

starting with the 2006 election, he did institute all-paper ballots for all New Mexico elections. And I have read he supports same-day registration. His web site for his campaign doesn't mention any of this though.

[iamthebandfanman]

6. wheres kentucky !? n/t

[marmar]

9. Can't list 'em all....hence the "other" category.....

n/t

[backscatter712]

8. Colorado's already there just about.

A Democratic governor, a Democratic state legislature, and more Democratic Congresscritters (though I wish we'd succeeded in firing Marilyn Musgrave...) I suspect that when Allard leaves in '08, he'll likely be replaced by a Democrat, probably Mark Udall. And I would not be surprised to see Colorado go blue in the Presidential election.

People are really pissed off at Bushco in this state.

[fizzgig]

17. i don't think it will happen

i do think udall can beat schaffer, but musgrave will not lost given the constituency of the district. and that constituency is why i don't think we'll go blue in the presidential. the rural (read largely conservative) vote is still too strong here

[Hobarticus]

10. Iowa, hands down...

Historically a blue state. Reddish-purple in '04 because of....fuck, I don't know. But we screwed up.

[hfojvt]

34. Iowa does not even belong on that list

It's a swing state, not a red state like Kansas or South Dakota (both of which have a few statewide-elected Democrats).

[Hobarticus]

35. I don't think so, either...

But memories are short.

[Hoof Hearted]

11. At the very least, Ohio and Colorado. Many others as well.

It's gonna be a champagne day in the HoofHearted homestead.

[FlyingSquirrel]

13. Don't forget New Mexico....

I've heard a lot about Colorado lately and I think it can be turned. But Ohio is an obvious choice, since it came so close in 2004. In reality, with the right candidate and the right strategy, any and all of the states you've listed could very easily turn. With the possible exception of Indiana and Arizona. Also, Kerry very nearly won New Mexico. (Probably really did, but let's not go there right now.) Only "lost" by about 1%

[marmar]

14. And perhaps he actually did win New Mexico.....

.... Wasn't there a good deal of funny business with the votes?

[Horse with no Name]

19. Yeah. Richardson had the machines wiped before it could be investigated.

New Mexico had the highest voter discrepancy in the country and might have been the place where we could have proven election fraud beyond a reasonable doubt.

[barbtries]

16. north carolina,

cause i live here now :)

[ArkySue]

20. Arkansas

We've already got a Dem Gov, Lt.Gov, all other state constitutional officers, 3 of 4 US Reps, both Senators (yeah, yeah, Pryor's a DINO).

[marmar]

21. Even if Huckabee is the Repug nominee?

n/t

[ArkySue]

38. Huck's not gonna be the nominee

There is too much dirt on him. I keep wondering where the media is, where the oppo researchers are...???
If Huck were to be the nominee, I guess it would depend on who the Dem nominee was.

[tchunter]

40. there was an article on here very recently that showed huckster polling pretty low in arkansas...

against democrats, they know just how corrupt he is. if someone could find the thread it'd be helpful

[fizzgig]

22. like i said upthread, i don't think it will be colorado

yes, we are turning 'purple'

we have a dem senate, house and governor but i don't know that we will ever go for a dem in the general...the rural vote still holds so much sway here

[marmar]

23. Are Denver and Boulder the only real blue areas?

I know Colorado Springs, religious right stronghold, isn't a liberal mecca.

[fizzgig]

26. the front range is pretty blue

ie: fort collins and loveland...but it's the plains that overwhelm us, especially when it comes to the 4th cd

[Common Sense Party]

24. Utah.

:rofl:

Just kidding. But a guy can dream, can't he?

[Eurobabe]

25. Money on Ohio, wishes on Virginia

One can hope :toast:

[Kucinich4America]

27. Ohio may have dumped Blackwell, but they still have DIEBOLD

That means they're still vulnerable.

Of course, maybe if a candidate from Ohio were the nominee, that would help :)

[Breeze54]

29. Louisiana

;)

BTW? I thought we had more states than that. :P

[ingac70]

30. New Mexico. n/t.

[trashcanistanista]

31. I'm thinking Utah.

After Huckabee thoroughl bashes the Mormons which even I feel is going a little overboard and extremely insulting, they may go dem if Huck is the frontruner.

[saracat]

32. Arizona. We have a hugely popular Dem Gov and Atty Gen. We have a split Congressiomal Delegation

and are projecting a pickup of possibly 3 more seats,as well as taking back our State House and Senate for the first tine im almost 30 years!:bounce: :bounce: :bounce: :bounce:

[FlyingSquirrel]

36. Even if AZ Sen. McCain is the Republican candidate? n/t

[saracat]

39. Are you kidding? Recent polling shows that if our Gov ran agaimst McCain

for his senate seat,she would demolish him! He is no longer popular with either side of the aisle.

[Contrary1]

37. Indiana...but only if Evan Bayh is the running mate.

Lots of scuttlebutt around here that Hillary will choose him as VP. Quite a dilemma for me, as I wrote him and said he would never have my vote again, based on his flag desecration vote.

In the end, I will vote for whoever is on the Democratic ticket. I just hope it's not Bayh.

[Perry Logan]

41. Delete.

[Toots]

42. Alaska is up for grabs

Their lone Representative and at least one Senator are under investigation for corruption and have had very poor publicity for the last couple of years. This is Alaska's big chance to make the break..