When Change Is Not Enough: The Seven Steps To Revolution

[marmar]

from OurFuture.org:



When Change Is Not Enough: The Seven Steps To Revolution
By Sara Robinson

February 20th, 2008 - 6:01pm ET


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"Those who make peaceful evolution impossible make violent revolution inevitable."
— John F. Kennedy



There's one thing for sure: 2008 isn't anything like politics as usual.

The corporate media (with their unerring eye for the obvious point) is fixated on the narrative that, for the first time ever, Americans will likely end this year with either a woman or a black man headed for the White House. Bloggers are telling stories from the front lines of primaries and caucuses that look like something from the early 60s — people lining up before dawn to vote in Manoa, Hawaii yesterday; a thousand black college students in Prairie View, Texas marching 10 miles to cast their early votes in the face of a county that tried to disenfranchise them. In recent months, we've also been gobstopped by the sheer passion of the insurgent campaigns of both Barack Obama and Ron Paul, both of whom brought millions of new voters into the conversation — and with them, a sharp critique of the status quo and a new energy that's agitating toward deep structural change.

There's something implacable, earnest, and righteously angry in the air. And it raises all kinds of questions for burned-out Boomers and jaded Gen Xers who've been ground down to the stump by the mostly losing battles of the past 30 years. Can it be — at long last — that Americans have, simply, had enough? Are we, finally, stepping out to take back our government — and with it, control of our own future? Is this simply a shifting political season — the kind we get every 20 to 30 years — or is there something deeper going on here? Do we dare to raise our hopes that this time, we're going to finally win a few? Just how ready is this country for big, serious, forward-looking change?

Recently, I came across a pocket of sociological research that suggested a tantalizing answer to these questions — and also that America may be far more ready for far more change than anyone really believes is possible at this moment. In fact, according to some sociologists, we've already lined up all the preconditions that have historically set the stage for full-fledged violent revolution.

It turns out that the energy of this moment is not about Hillary or Ron or Barack. It's about who we are, and where we are, and what happens to people's minds when they're left hanging just a little too far past the moment when they're ready for transformative change.

Way back in 1962, Caltech sociologist James C. Davies published an article in the American Sociological Review that summarized the conditions that determine how and when modern political revolutions occur. Intriguingly, Davies cited another scholar, Crane Brinton, who laid out seven "tentative uniformities" that he argued were the common precursors that set the stage for the Puritan, American, French, and Russian revolutions. As I read Davies' argument, it struck me that the same seven stars Brinton named are now precisely lined up at midheaven over America in 2008. Taken together, it's a convergence that creates the perfect social, economic, and political conditions for the biggest revolution since the shot heard 'round the world. ......(more)

The complete piece is at: http://www.ourfuture.org/blog-entry/when-change-not-enough-seven-steps-revolution

[backscatter712]

1. K&R - very good article.

Now if you'll excuse me, I'll be down in my basement, cleaning my guns...

[ProgressiveFool]

2. K & R

[backscatter712]

3. Just to summarize, the seven steps in the article:

1. Soaring, Then Crashing (as in long periods of prosperity, followed by a sudden recession/depression in which millions lose it all. Makes 'em mad...)

2. They Call It A Class War (Read Greg Palast's book Armed Madhouse if you're still not convinced it's a class war.)

3. Deserted Intellectuals (like the scientists having research on global warming censored by the Bushies?)

4. Incompetent Government (anyone not see this?)

5. Gutless Wonders in the Ruling Class (like Reid and Pelosi...)

6. Fiscal Irresponsibility (Hello inflation, insane deficits, candy stimulus packages.)

7. Inept and Inconsistent Use of Force (Don't tase me, bro!)

Yeah. It's not looking good for us...

[angrycarpenter]

4. I fervently hope that it will not come to that.

It would be an unparalleled tragedy if Americans had to resort to extreme measures to get a real change.

One big factor is that we do not grow food everywhere the way it has been in the past. They could starve us out much more effectively. We would be too busy fighting with each other over food to fight the power. I have heard that at any given moment there is only three days of food available. As Marley put it "A hungry crowd is an angry crowd." K&R.

[Extend a Hand]

5. Great article...

here's some more:

And even more interestingly: in every case, we got here as a direct result of either intended or unintended consequences of the conservatives' war against liberal government, and their attempt to take over our democracy and replace it with a one-party plutocracy. It turns out that, historically, liberal nations make very poor grounds for revolution — but deeply conservative ones very reliably create the conditions that eventually make violent overthrow necessary. And our own Republicans, it turns out, have done a hell of a job.

Here are the seven criteria, along with the reasons why we're fulfilling each of them now, and how conservative policies conspired to put us on the road to possible revolution.
1. Soaring, Then Crashing
Davies notes that revolutions don't happen in traditional societies that are stable and static — where people have their place, things are as they've always been, and nobody expects any of that to change. Rather, modern revolutions — particularly the progressive-minded ones in which people emerge from the fray with greater rights and equality — happen in economically advancing societies, always at the point where a long period of rising living standards and high, hopeful expectations comes to a crashing end, leaving the citizens in an ugly and disgruntled mood.
2. They Call It A Class War
3. Deserted Intellectuals
4. Incompetent Government
5. Gutless Wonders in the Ruling Class
6. Fiscal Irresponsibility
7. Inept and Inconsistent Use of Force

I can't believe no one has commented on this.
We're facing a global economic crisis that is just emerging, peak oil, and global warming. It really does seem like the perfect storm is approaching.

:blush: Guess I should've refreshed my screen...I see that they have.

[ms liberty]

6. Fascinating and frightening. KR&B n/t

[femrap]

7. A big K and R

WoW! Those 7 steps really explain what's going on!

Thank you for posting. I'm going to send this to some people!

Now I know that I am feeling 'ugly and disgruntled.'

[Orwellian_Ghost]

8. K&R n/t

[Karenina]

17. And another.

[Mnemosyne]

9. Phenomenal article, though I will disagree with the "incompetent government"

claim to my dying day. How does one consider these people incompetent when they have gotten everything they ever wanted and are aiming higher all the time? At our expense?

Rec'd earlier and back to comment and kick.

Thanks marmar!

[marmar]

10. "when they have gotten everything they ever wanted"

Yup, I agree with you.....Incompetent like a fox!

:hi:

[Mnemosyne]

21. They do appoint incompetents to run things purposely though,

I believe.

Solidarity in vigilance! :hi:

[Kitty Herder]

13. I think the article meant incompetent in terms of providing the basic services people expect of govt

and not creating huge problems for the common people. In that light, the current den of thieves in charge of this county are most certainly incompetent. Although, you are certainly correct in asserting that they are quite competent in taking care of themselves and getting what THEY want.

[Mnemosyne]

20. Ah, misunderstood. Thanks for clarifying! n/t

:hi:

[burrowowl]

11. K&R

Sensible article. I think the U$A will go down without anyone doing anything about it.
We have Clinton/Obam debate on CNN sponsored by COAL.
Debate not on networks available to all, etc.

[Kitty Herder]

12. Kick

:kick:

[NM Independent]

14. Between this and the 14 points of Fascism...

...I'm about ready to stock up on Ammo and head for the mountains.

Where'd I leave my tinfoil hat?

[SpiralHawk]

15. "Gutless wonders? That's our republicon chickenhawk speciality." - Rush Limbaugh

"As a fabulously overpaid republicon corporate propagandist, who earned his chickenhawk military deferment the old-fashioned republicon way - whimping out with an ass pimple - I can verify that we republicons have the Gutless Wonder thang locked up. Smirk."

- Rush Limbaugh

[RainDog]

16. This article also accurately describes

what is going on in demo politics, too-

Hillary Clinton is failing because this is a revolutionary moment — and she, regrettably, has the misfortune to be too closely identified with the mounting failures of the past that we're now seeking to move beyond. On the other hand, Ron Paul's otherwise inexplicable success has been built on his pointed and very specific critique of the kinds of government leadership failures I've described.

And Barack Obama is walking away with the moment because he talks of "hope" — which, as Davies makes clear, is the very first thing any would-be revolutionary needs. And then he talks of "change," which many of his followers are clearly hearing as a soft word for "revolution." And then he describes — not in too much detail — a different future, and what it means to be a transformative president, and in doing so answers our deep frustration at 30 years of leaders who faced the looming future by turning their heads instead of facing it.

Will he deliver on this promise of change? That remains to be seen. But the success of his presidency, if there is to be one, will likely be measured on how well his policies confront and deal with these seven criteria for revolution. If those preconditions are all still in place in 2012, the fury will have had another four years to rise. And at that point, if history rhymes, mere talk of hope and change will no longer be enough.

This is not meant to harsh Clinton or her supporters. I think this is just a recognition of the present reality. Yes, Bill had a lot of success as prez, but he and she are associated with the recent nasty past that so many want to get rid of. As far as revolution goes, the article mentions the upper middle class as the anchor that staved off revolution during the 20s/30s in the U.S., but it was FDR's legislation that lifted up all Americans (except, I suppose, the richest, if they cannot consider themselves part of the whole). He corrected the massive imbalances of big Republican gilded age fuck you that this republican era most closely resembles.

[Orwellian_Ghost]

18. Kicking

[Habibi]

19. K & R

This helps explain to me why Obama is doing so well.

[scarletlib]

22. Excellent article

I read a lot of news/articles/comment on the internet during the day and I see these facts reflected in the stories and anecdotes being reported all over the country. I hear it at my work too. I don't know what kind of 'revolution' we might have but I do know that people are definitely ready for change and fed up with what is going on in this country today.