A look into the future, transportation 2015...

[Solon]

With all the concern over oil supply and prices, I thought I'd just show everyone what a post-oil world would look like, I picked 2015 because its less than a decade away, and it looks like our transportation options are beginning to dwindle now.

On land:











On the Sea:



In the Air:



One thing must be made clear here, we need to lower energy consumption to get from place to place, that means hauling around less stuff per person, and using power from sources other than oil. However, the simple fact is we must use less net energy than we do now.

[Indiana_Dem]

1. I totally agree with you. It must begin now. nt

[countryjake]

2. Can't view most of your pics, 'cept for that bike made of metal components...

seems as tho, industrial production, including smelting, is likely to be drastically reduced, also.

So, voila!

[Solon]

3. Oh, a wooden bike, now that is cool!

I wonder why you can't see all the pics, one is a horse and buggy, another is an electric bus, another an electric train, a sailing ship, and a Zeppelin.

[countryjake]

7. I've seen bamboo bikes, but they still usually soup 'em up, with metal gears...

so that kid in the picture definitely has the right idea. Seems like the wheelright trade may be making a comeback, sooner than not, but maybe working with stuff like bamboo, rather than wood.

(I can't figure out why those pics didn't come up...I copied the properties and followed each one out, to see what you'd posted, so now I'm getting them all, except for the electric bus. Weird!)

[Solon]

8. I copied them to my webspace on Charter, and relinked them...

so if you get one, you should get the others. I figured some of the site were forbidding hotlinking, which I try to avoid as a general rule, but I was in a rush, no excuse really, just glad I did that.

[countryjake]

14. After logging off, now coming back in, all your pics are there, now.

I think it's something going on with this computer...can't open pdf. files either, so may have corrupted files somewhere. I'm too tired to mess with it now, but running funky here, for sure.

You know, there should be lots of new inventions to come with this downhill slope of peak oil, improving on simple machines and such, only this time, maintaining respect for nature in the process of progress. Right now, I wish someone would design a windmill that doesn't attract and destroy birds...these windfarms going up all over don't realize the impact they'll have on those who populate the skies.

Thanks for the post, gives a lot to think about.

[Solon]

10. One thing that kid does need is a wheelwright...

The wheels are totally impractical in that picture, first, they are SOLID wood, can you imagine trying to ride that bike uphill? No way is that practical, spokes are needed. The second problem is the lack of a tire or iron rim on the wheels, if you hit a rock, the wheel could shatter, and so could your bones. The kid is on the right track, but perhaps needs to think through the design of the wheels.

In addition, I would say that bamboo is the way to go, its quite strong and lighter than wood, in addition to being quick growing, so it would be easier to meet demand if needed without cutting down forests.

[Selatius]

4. We could have bullet trains, if we would stop blowing so much money on war and death. nt

[Solon]

5. We need a national railroad project, similar to Ike's national highway system...

and of similar scale, to create an exclusively passenger oriented high speed continental railroad system for electric trains. And that would only be the first step, of course, combine it with light rail and bus systems near cities, and many other projects that would be needed to help us use less net energy to transport ourselves than we do now.

[Selatius]

6. It's doable, but you're facing awesome resistance from car and oil companies.

The current US infrastructure is their bread and butter. They won't like the changes one bit. If you can get around them, you're good.

[Solon]

9. Oh I know, these are the guys who bought up and destroyed the old trolly and light rail systems...

and replaced them with buses back in the day. I wish we had a leader who would, pardon the expression, run over these assholes and get this done. It needs to be done, period.

[dysfunctional press]

18. the money and resources spent on that type of project would be better spent-

developing better alternative fuel/electric power systems for private vehicles.

[Solon]

19. That would be more of a waste than what I proposed...

First, we are NOT going to replace every single gas burning automobile with electric or alternative fuel vehicles, simply put, we don't have the energy needed for that to happen. That's fact. As such, we would need to REDUCE the energy needed to transport people from place to place, this means that we are going to have to make sacrifices, and automobiles, at least for long distance travel, will be one of those sacrifices. There is no free lunch here, if you replaced every automobile with an electric vehicle, it would require hundreds of new power plants to just charge those things. Alternative fuels require similar sacrifices.

[dysfunctional press]

22. if we don't have the energy to replace cars- where is the energy to build a rail system coming from?

:shrug:

after all- since you say that we don't have enough energy to replace cars, it MUST be true...:sarcasm:

:eyes:

[Solon]

23. We are talking about energy efficiency here...

How much energy it takes to transport one person one mile in this country. Using automobiles, regardless of how they are powered, is one of the least efficient forms of travel known today, outside of jet airplanes. What we need to do is reduce the energy needed to transport one person one mile, and the best way to do that is for people to share vehicles.

Even the worst, most decrepit and gas guzzling city bus is more energy efficient at transporting people when fully loaded than the most advanced hybrids out today.

Right now, the United States burns 400 million gallons of gas a day, most of that for personal travel in private vehicles, there is nothing, absolutely nothing, that can replace those gallons of gasoline for private vehicles. We need to use the technologies we have available now, while we still have the energy, to create a more efficient system of transport for people in this country.

[dysfunctional press]

24. not gonna happen.

this country and it's infrastructure is based around private vehicles- it's what the populace prefers.
and no, there is no one thing that will replace gasoline- that's why it will be a multi-pronged solution, with a variety of methods employed to power personal vehicles.

[Selatius]

25. It's what the populace was made to think. This country can do anything it puts its mind to.

You say it's never gonna happen, but I disagree. If a nation could overcome a civil war, two world wars, a crippling depression, and 40 years of red scare, it most certainly can overcome an infrastructure that exemplifies the notion that everybody must own a car. Don't ever let anybody tell you otherwise.

Solon has a point. There are more efficient ways of transporting people with less energy than with everybody owning a car. That's simply an issue of math.

[dysfunctional press]

41. If a nation could overcome a civil war, two world wars, a crippling depression...

40 years of red scare, it most certainly can overcome an infrastructure that exemplifies the notion that everybody must own a car- if it wanted to- but the vast majority of the populace doesn't want to. therefore, those same factors you mention can be used to overcome the idea that we MUST succumb to mass transit for everyone, and develop more efficient ways to power personal vehicles.

[Solon]

29. Its going to happen, whether the populace wants it or not...

There really is no choice here, its either that or walk.

[dysfunctional press]

42. we'll see...

but i think that you're entirely mistaken.

[Lydia Leftcoast]

32. Wrong on both counts

1. The totally car=based infrastructure is only about 60 years old. The very idea of the interstate system (which was never intended as a form of urban or suburban transportation) is only about 50 years old, and construction didn't start in earnest until the 1960s.

2. It's what the populace was TAUGHT to prefer. When there are alternatives, many people choose to use them. When I first gave up my car in Portland ca. 1993, it was considered a weird and eccentric thing to do. As the transit infrastructure improved to the point that many suburban neighborhoods had good bus service that connected to the rail lines, more and more people gave up driving. The majority still drive, but it's worth noting that during the ten years I lived in Portland, five of my friends gave up driving, and I heard of many others.

[Hardrada]

38. They are going to have to resume bus service to smaller towns

like mine and put back the railroad tracks also. I thought it was unwise when they pulled them out. Otherwise we can just walk or bike to work in ten minutes or so. And I can just walk downstairs for my Internet biz. I haven't faced a daily commute since 1974.

[Lydia Leftcoast]

39. Even when I was teaching, I always made a point of living only

a short walk away from campus, or, if that was impossible, on a direct bus line.

Now my commute is down the hall.

[Hardrada]

40. My cousins in Minnesota live so far out from where I do business

(in MPLS city and university area bookstores)that I tell them it is almost as sensible for my purposes to get a motel room in Rochester than to drive in heavy traffic way out to their places in Chaska or Minnetonka and points west! I get up there about once or twice a year.

[dysfunctional press]

43. nope.

the car/interstate system is only about 60 years old- but the concept of personal transport/vehicle ownership goes back to colonial times.

whether or not it's what they were taught to prefer- it IS what they prefer. and when enough people prefer something, other people will find a way to meet that preference.

i gave up my car when i moved into chicago at first as well- but i eventually got another, even though i continued to bike and use the cta when it was convenient to do so. now that we've moved to an almost rural setting, a car is a necessity. we had been thinking of replacing our current car, but we've decided to wait a couple years to see what happens with alternatives...like this one perhaps-

http://www.teslamotors.com/

[riverdeep]

34. This is the point that many miss.

The alternatives available right now, and I'm conceding that the future may bring something entirely unimaginable, don't have the energy capabilities that fossil fuels have. To put it in the simplest terms possible, you can't get as much 'oomph' out these alternatives. Not to mention other advantages like transportation of fossil fuels as opposed to, say, hydrogen. Bottom line is: less energy available.

It would be unwise to continue with business as usual and hope that a future technological miracle can get us out of this. Efficiency, scaling back in our energy use, alternative sources of energy, and yes, maybe even expanding nuclear, are going to be part of the solution. The other part is there isn't any. There's going to be a lot of pain for a lot of people and animals. We had a chance to avoid that 30 years ago- now it's triage time. We can't get everything we want. Should've listened to Jimmy Carter and put on a sweater, along with other things.

[Norrin Radd]

11. Airships are cool, but require gentle weather.

[Hardrada]

12. That particular zep used to go around the world.

Just remember to use helium, folks!

[Art_from_Ark]

13. That reminds me of a joke:

What's the difference between Rush Limbaugh and the Graf Zeppelin?

One's a giant gas bag, the other is an airship.

[Hardrada]

15. LOL!

At least the airship is good for something!

[dysfunctional press]

16. helium is a finite resource, just like petroleum.

nt

[Lydia Leftcoast]

33. But how often does a zeppelin need to fill up as opposed to a plane?

:shrug:

The helium doesn't provide the motive power, just the buoyancy, so it would just need to be topped off like a tire that has started to lose air pressure.

Presumably, the helium would provide the lift, so that even though a zeppelin requires some motive power from internal combustion engine, it doesn't require as much as a plane.

[Solon]

35. You wouldn't even necessarily require internal combustion engines...

being that these aren't jet engines, just engines to turn props and/or handle steering, they could be electric and work just as well. Also a Zeppelin has a lot of surface area, you could coat that with either a photovoltaic paint or just put solar panels on the top half of it, and that should provide a means to recharge batteries and even run the engines directly during the day.

[Lydia Leftcoast]

36. Sounds better and better

I saw a TV program about the zeppelin that journeyed from Germany to Japan in the 1930s. It sounded like a most wonderful way to travel, slower than today's planes, but elegant and peaceful, and you had plenty of room to get up and walk around.

[Hardrada]

37. Good point. You just keep using the same helium.

[Subdivisions]

17. Excellent post. Thank you. K&R. n/t

[marmar]

20. Amen....And I look forward to that day.

n/t

[Solon]

21. I don't, at least, not this soon...

but its more or less inevitable, the problem isn't the result of peak oil, its the transitioning that will wean us off of it. We need time to transition, and we don't have it, this is less than 8 years away, and we need 20 to make a smooth transition. Let's just say that "interesting times" are ahead in the next few years, and I really don't want to live in interesting times, I would prefer boring times myself.

[Indenturedebtor]

27. Indeed. We need TRAINS NOW!

Need to start selling the economy of them to the public. "How would you like to get to work for a dollar? How would you like for the cost of nearly every good you buy to go down?"

Most people don't give two shits about the planet.

[Solon]

30. "Most people don't give two shits about the planet. " I agree...

However, that doesn't mean that they wouldn't do the smart thing for selfish reason, I ride a bike to work, not so much to save the planet, but to save myself some money, that's a selling point. No one gives a shit about the spotted owl either, but the fact is that we require stable ecosystems for food production, so we should sell environmentalism as a self preservation policy for humans.

[Indenturedebtor]

31. I agree. We should do both. But the "comfort monkeys"

As I like to call them will never sacrifice for the greater good. IMO we need to pursue policies and frame much of the debate in terms of "This will be good for your pocketbook, and it just so happens that it will help ensure that you're children will live to see 30."

Many just don't seem to get this whole progressive forward thinking thing.

[tblue37]

26. Well, one good thing about the Cheneybush administration--

we have gotten used to dealing with huge, steaming piles of horsesh*t all over the place.

[The Inquisitive]

28. Don't forget

I'm keeping my fingers crossed for giant battle robots in the near future.