Extremely BAD oil and gasoline inventory report...

[Subdivisions]

Crude was down $2 before the news. It has now blasted off - now up $4, up from the low since yesterday's close. S&P and Dow turned downward briefly on the news but remains relatively flat as of this posting.

http://www.eia.doe.gov/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/weekly_petroleum_status_report/wpsr.html">EIA Weekly Petroleum Report

Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the Week Ending May 23, 2008

U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged nearly 15.3 million barrels per day
during the week ending May 23,up 214 thousand barrels per day from the previous
week's average. Refineries operated at 87.9 percent of their operable capacity
last week. Gasoline production moved higher compared to the previous week,
averaging about 9.1 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel production
decreased last week, averaging 4.3 million barrels per day.

U.S. crude oil imports averaged 9.0 million barrels per day last week, down 278
thousand barrels per day from the previous week. Over the last four weeks, crude
oil imports have averaged nearly 9.7 million barrels per day, 579 thousand
barrels per day below the same four-week period last year. Total motor gasoline
imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last
week averaged 1.0 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel imports averaged 250
thousand barrels per day last week.

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic
Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 8.8 million barrels from the previous week. At
311.6 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are in the lower half of the
average range for this time of year. The drop was due to temporary delays in
crude oil tanker off-loadings on the Gulf Coast. Total motor gasoline
inventories decreased by 3.2 million barrels last week, and are near the lower
limit of the average range. Finished gasoline inventories remained unchanged
last week while gasoline blending components inventories decreased during this
same time. Distillate fuel inventories increased by 1.6 million barrels, and are
in the lower half of the average range for this time of year. Propane/propylene
inventories increased by 1.7 million barrels last week but remain near the
bottom of the average range. Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased by
9.7 million barrels last week, and are in the lower half of the average range
for this time of year.

Total products supplied over the last four-week period has averaged nearly 20.5
million barrels per day, down by 0.7 percent compared to the similar period last
year. Over the last four weeks, motor gasoline demand has averaged 9.3 million
barrels per day, down by 0.4 percent from the same period last year. Distillate
fuel demand has averaged 4.1 million barrels per day over the last four weeks,
up 1.2 percent from the same period last year. Jet fuel demand is 2.9 percent
lower over the last four weeks compared to the same four-week period last year.

I'm listening to a special about oil and gas on CNN Radio with Ali Velshi. A caller just brought up Cheney's Energy Task Force and that the media should look into who was there and what was discussed and what policies were made. Velshi says nevermind that, we need to concentrate on looking forward to what we're going to do about high prices. Pure, unadulterated obfuscation. Cheney's Energy Task Force is off-limits to media discussion.

What DID happen in that meeting?

[SpiralHawk]

1. "Smirk - Sneer." - Dickie 'Five Military Deferments' Cheney (R - Oil Crony)

[marmar]

2. I wish they'd quit treating us like infants and level with us.....

.... We need to begin the transition to a different way of life NOW. Yes, it's going to be very painful. But better pain now than oblivion later.
A better post-petroleum society is possible!

[Subdivisions]

3. There have been recent increases in total liquids

productions as the world scrambles to keep up with demand with not only extra drilling in old fields but also they have ADDED all fuels, includiing biodiesel, ethanol, etc. in order to make it SEEM as if production is growing - but it isn't. Actual production of CRUDE OIL (not other fuels) peaked in 2005 and no amount of obfuscation and wool is going to change that except a higher crude production number.

BTW, on the Ali Velshi radio special ONLY the bullshit memes about drilling ANWR and the continental shelves has gotten through. Peak oil has yet to be mentioned as a possibilty for the problems we're seeing. Also, absolutely NO MENTION of this inventory report and the possibility that prices are based on the information contained therein.

[Virginia Dare]

5. We acted like a bunch of crying babies back in the 70's..

when Carter attempted to ration our gas and oil. Maybe that's why they're treating us like that now?...:shrug:

[leftchick]

4. "What DID happen in that meeting?"

IRAQ IRAQ IRAQ!!!!

<snip>

The thought that the war was actually about making money for individuals and corporations in the short term did not seem to me to be credible. That was too petty and crass.

That was why I was stunned to read the press release put out by the public interest group Judicial Watch on July 17, 2003. This organization, along with the Sierra Club, had argued that both the membership of the Energy Task Force chaired by Vice-President Cheney and the proceedings of its meetings should be made public and had sought the information under the Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) since April 19, 2001. The Vice President had vigorously opposed this opening up of its activities and so a lawsuit was filed. On March 5, 2002 the US District Judge ordered the government to produce the documents, which was finally done by the Commerce Department just recently.

The Judicial Watch press release states that these released documents "contain a map of Iraqi oilfields, pipelines, refineries and terminals, as well as 2 charts detailing Iraqi oil and gas projects, and "Foreign Suitors for Iraqi Oilfield Contracts." The documents, which are dated March 2001, are available on the Internet at: www.JudicialWatch.org."

The press release continues: "The Saudi Arabian and United Arab Emirates (UAE) documents likewise feature a map of each country's oilfields, pipelines, refineries and tanker terminals. There are supporting charts with details of the major oil and gas development projects in each country that provide information on the projects, costs, capacity, oil company and status or completion date."

http://www.counterpunch.org/singham07192003.html


<snip>

the head of two SOC divisions, Hassan Hafidh reports for Dow Jones Newswires. Kifah Nauman, Abdul Jabbar Lauby’s deputy, will replace him. … Ali Hussein Khudier replaced Abdul Kareem Jasem at South Gas Co. and Amer Abdul Jabbar has taken over from Kareem Jabor al-Saaedy at Iraqi Oil Tankers Co. … “The reason behind his replacement is purely political,” Mustafa Al Ani, a senior analyst at the Dubai-based think-tank, Gulf Research Center, told Dow Jones. “He was a vocal opponent of the proposed new oil law, which is based on decentralization and division of the oil sector in Iraq.”

Iraq Oil Report is told Lauby has refused an alternate post of “adviser” to the Oil Ministry.

Aref Mohammed has more for Reuters.

The removal of Lauby is likely part of an across the board firing of the Basra workforce in the oil and gas and transportation sectors. Iraq Oil Report cannot confirm reports that any worker with more than 25 years of service will be removed in an attempt to tackle corruption. Meanwhile, as Iraq’s most experienced and knowledgeable workers are fired, Iraq is signing deals with international companies to do a number of service projects, including building the largest port in the Gulf in Al Faw. It’s also likely the workers brought in to replace those who are fired will be members of the Dawa Party and Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq, thus shoring up control and numbers before provincial elections are held.

It comes as Iraq’s oil workers union has penned a letter to shareholders of Chevron and ExxonMobil asking them to support Iraq civil society and back off the oil law.

http://www.iraqoilreport.com/2008/05/26/iraq-pm-maliki-fires-south-oil-co-chief-and-scores-more-in-oil-other-sectors%E2%80%A6/



:grr:

[truedelphi]

29. WOW! Even cynical old me wouldn't have speculated that wildly

It was after all, billed as a meeting abt oil and energy.

I guess I am just as naive as many who are much less cynical than me.

[hootinholler]

6. There's a map somewhere that gives a little insight to that meeting.

It divides up Iraqi oilfields.

-Hoot

[Subdivisions]

7. Replying to my own OP to add some news...

Seems the release of this report was an "accident". Getting it this early suprised many of us who watch oil's status daily. The report was not due out until 3:30pm ET. It will be interesting to see if they numbers change when it is re-released at that time. You can bet I'll be watching

[notesdev]

8. Two things

1 - I'm not of the opinion that falling oil usage is a bad thing, I believe our use has been excessive (the SUV craze being the epitome of such wastefulness).

2 - Oil prices aren't where they are due to supply and demand, nor to any Cheney-led conspiracy. They are where they are because a massive amount of investment money fled from other sectors that have been taking it in the shorts (most notably mortgage-backed securities, AKA the money furnace) and commodities are perceived to be relatively safe. By some estimates more than half the current price of oil is due to speculation alone - there is more money speculating on oil right now than there is in actually using the stuff for some productive purpose. Speculation alone has put more money into oil than the entire size of the oil market just a few years ago.

[Subdivisions]

9. I presented inventory reports...

What are your sources?

[notesdev]

11. quantifying commodities speculation

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2008/05/quantifying-commodities-speculation.html

[Subdivisions]

13. Even if you can quantify it, are you telling me

that that inventory report has NO effect on the price that is bid on oil contracts?

Are you saying that a perception that supplies will tighten is NOT what investors are betting on? If not, why are they sinking so much money in it?

[notesdev]

16. They money is flowing to commodities

Because many investments once thought safe have been revealed as garbage.

The Treasury's latest I-bond series offered a rate of 0.00%. (That's right, absolutely nothing.)

Mortgage-backed securities were seen to be almost as safe as Treasury bonds, and those went from conservative gains to a source of massive losses.

Where does the global pool of money go to make a return under these conditions?

In this highly recessionary environment, money flees to what seems to be most safe; and commodities are perceived to be relatively safe investments relative to where the money is coming from (battered real estate investments, mostly), for the reason that even in the worst of times people still need to eat and consume energy. The amount of money that is involved in these types of investments dwarfs any one industry, even the oil industry, so its flight to perceived safety must necessarily create a price bubble wherever it goes.

Just like real estate prices were not sustainable on fundamentals, nor is the price of oil (or food, for that matter). The speculators - the crowd-followers, that is - are going to take it in the shorts once again, if they are not out of commodities before the price bubble has too great an effect on demand.

[notesdev]

17. sorry, just to more directly address the question

I am not telling you that inventory does not impact the equation; it most certainly does.

But what the actual inventory reports show does not take into account the 'virtual' inventory of speculators who buy futures with the specific intent of never taking delivery.

[Subdivisions]

18. Masters was just on CNBC discussing his

Index Speculators and the CNBC gang wasn't really buying into it.

I'll definately look into it more.

[notesdev]

27. Don't watch TV

so I can't speak to/for CNBC.

I do know that Jim Cramer has a CNBC show, so I'd take what they have to say with a grain of salt, since their quality control appears to be quite low.

Here's some entertaining watching:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gUkbdjetlY8

I think a lot of the professional talking head types are just too close to the subject of their studies to really make objective assessments.

[Subdivisions]

23. Did you see what happened today?

What happened? Oil was down $2 from yesterday's close. Then the very bad report came out and no longer than it took for thousands of people to read it, the price began to shoot up and rose $4. Then, the EIA retracted the report because it had been released at the usual 9-9:30am time frame. Oil price begins to drop. Then, after they were supposedly going to release the report at 3:30pm ET, they re-released it instead just 30 minutes after retracting it. The price steadied. Then the EIA releases a statement saying that inventory was down because of fog in the previous week.

So, I called the NWS in New Orleans, Lake Charles, and Galveston/Houston - and guess what? NO DENSE FOG reported for the past week. Only sporadic light fog that burned off soon after sunrise.

So, why the lies?

BTW, oil prices on the NYMEX continued to decline and it's currently trading ~$3.50 down from yesterday's close.

[alfredo]

10. If we do have an active hurricane season in the gulf, best get your

bicycle out of the shed.

[Imagevision]

12. The fact Cheney was CEO of Halliburton before becoming VP. speaks volumes...

[Virginia Dare]

14. I guess that should have been a clue right there..

that oil profits were not going DOWN!

[bhikkhu]

15. Where US inventories drop, US demand drops, and prices stay high

That would indicate demand destruction here, but steady demand elsewhere picking off our customary share of the market?

[NJmaverick]

19. This is blatant price manipulation, being allowed by the bush admin

Oil is being hoarded as an investment. There is nothing natural about drops in inventory when demand is dropping.

[Subdivisions]

20. EIA is blaming drop in inventories on fog...So, I checked...

I called the NWS in Lake Charles, New Orleans, and Houston. NO DENSE FOG! Only sporadic light fog that burned off shortly after sunrise. Also, for the past week our weather patterns here in Texas (Edited to add: Remember the tornado in Colorado? Fed by patterns bringing air currents up from GOM, through Texas. There were no significant inversions along the coast) would not allow for the formation of dense fog that could keep tankers from off-loading.

So, why the lies?

[Hannah Bell]

21. kick

[NJmaverick]

22. There has to be a lie, otherwise the public grows angry

as long as their is an excuse, however inplausible, the sheeple will just grouse and complain, but do nothing.

[Subdivisions]

24. I discussed SPECIFICALLY with a METEOROLOGIST at the

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE in Lake Charles the EIA's statement that FOG was the reason oil was not delivered. And he said there WAS NO SIGNIFICANT FOG OR TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS THAT WOULD CAUSE A CRUDE OIL TANKER TO REMAIN OFFSHORE. He outright diputed EIA's statement. I haven't had a chance to locate the exact statement but http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080529/oil_prices.html?.v=14">here is a link to an article about it at Yahoo! News.

In that article, Phil Flynn, an analyst at Alaron Trading Corp. in Chicago states: "This is the worst year I can remember for fog." Yet, my conversations with the NWS in those locations does not support that comment at all. In fact, I just got off the phone as I was composing this post from the Houston office. The nice lady there looked all the way back to the beginning of April. NO DENSE FOG ALERTS! Same for Lake Charles. New Orleans has has no significan fog in May.

The Lake Charles guy did say that on four days in May, the fog was possibly dense enough to keep LNG tankers parked offshore but I should call the port pilots on how they handled shipping traffic on those days and crude offloading in general for the month. I'm tempted to do just that!

[Hannah Bell]

25. kick

[Subdivisions]

28. ADDENDUM TO POST #24: The text of the article I quoted on

Yahoo! News where Phil Flynn says "This is the worst year I can remember for fog." has been edited out of the original text of the article. Reference to Flynn has also been deleted and replace with analsys from someone else. Just and FYI.

[lildreamer316]

30. SERIOUSLY??

LOL...sorta.
Looks like you mighta scared someone.
Good catch. Do you have a screencap of the original?
:evilgrin:

[Hannah Bell]

33. Hmm. You're right. but it hasn't been removed from other sites, e.g.

KNX 1070 News

http://www.knx1070.com/Oil-Prices-Fall--But-Gas-Prices-Rise/2273690

USA Today

http://www.usatoday.com/money/industries/energy/2008-05-29-oil-gasoline-thurs_N.htm

But the EIA also offered a rare explanatory note on the Gulf Coast tanker problems. That could mean there will be a big jump in crude inventories in next week's report, analysts said. Gulf ports have closed many times in recent months due to fog, said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Alaron Trading Corp. in Chicago.

``This is the worst year I can remember for fog,'' Flynn said.


I don't know how to do screenshots, but if someone does....

Democratic Underground - Where are all the tankers? Is it REALLY ...... recent months due to fog, said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Alaron Trading Corp. in Chicago. "This is the worst year I can remember for fog," Flynn said. ...
www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=389&topic_id=3357619&mes... - 6 hours ago - Similar pages

Crude oil plunges as U.S. explains surprise supply drop - USATODAY.com... in recent months because of fog, said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Alaron Trading in Chicago. "This is the worst year I can remember for fog," Flynn said. ...
www.usatoday.com/money/industries/energy/2008-05-29-oil-gasoline-thurs_N.htm - 14 hours ago - Similar pages

cbs5.com - Oil Tumbles On Supply Explanation, Dollar, Demand... recent months due to fog, said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Alaron Trading Corp. in Chicago. "This is the worst year I can remember for fog," Flynn said. ...
cbs5.com/business/oil.drops.prices.2.735647.html - 9 hours ago - Similar pages

wjz.com - Oil Tumbles On Supply Explanation, Dollar, Demand... recent months due to fog, said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Alaron Trading Corp. in Chicago. "This is the worst year I can remember for fog," Flynn said. ...
wjz.com/business/oil.drops.prices.2.735647.html - 7 hours ago - Similar pages

cbs2chicago.com - Oil Tumbles On Supply Explanation, Dollar, Demand... recent months due to fog, said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Alaron Trading Corp. in Chicago. "This is the worst year I can remember for fog," Flynn said. ...
cbs2chicago.com/business/oil.drops.prices.2.735647.html - 6 hours ago - Similar pages

cbs2.com - Oil Tumbles On Supply Explanation, Dollar, Demand... recent months due to fog, said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Alaron Trading Corp. in Chicago. "This is the worst year I can remember for fog," Flynn said. ...
cbs2.com/business/oil.drops.prices.2.735647.html - 7 hours ago - Similar pages

Excite Money & Investing... recent months due to fog, said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Alaron Trading Corp. in Chicago. "This is the worst year I can remember for fog," Flynn said. ...
money.excite.com/.../alias/money/cm/nw - 9 hours ago - Similar pages

Excite Money & Investing... recent months due to fog, said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Alaron Trading Corp. in Chicago. "This is the worst year I can remember for fog," Flynn said. ...
money.excite.com/.../alias/money/cm/nw - 10 hours ago - Similar pages

Herald-Coaster... recent months due to fog, said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Alaron Trading Corp. in Chicago. ‘‘This is the worst year I can remember for fog,'' Flynn said. ...
www.herald-coaster.com/articles/2008/05/29/news/top_story/topstory.txt - 5 hours ago - Similar pages

Oil tumbles on supply explanation, dollar, demand: Financial News ...... recent months due to fog, said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Alaron Trading Corp. in Chicago. "This is the worst year I can remember for fog," Flynn said. ...
biz.yahoo.com/ap/080529/oil_prices.html?.v=24 - 8 hours ago - Similar pages

[Career Prole]

26. K & R!

:kick:

[neverforget]

31. You're a wealth of information. Keep up the good work!

[mmonk]

32. Cheney's Task Force was ruled off limits but it was about

the following:

Iraqi oilfields, pipelines, refineries and terminals, as well as 2 charts detailing Iraqi oil and gas projects, and “Foreign Suitors for Iraqi Oilfield Contracts.”

From Judicial Watch and the FOIA suit.

http://www.judicialwatch.org/printer_iraqi-oilfield-pr.shtml

Maps and charts links

http://www.judicialwatch.org/iraqi-oil-maps.shtml

Iraqi reserves

http://www.judicialwatch.org/IraqOilMap.pdf

[file83]

34. Props to you doing more work as 1 person than the entire MSM does.

These rat bastards are FUCKING US with these market fixes, artificially reducing supply just to increase demand and hence, prices.

This fog bullshit is laughable. Kudos to you T.E.!!