Ok. That's it. I'm calling it. It's gonna be an epic blowout.

[dave123williams]

Here's why:

Polls are always samples of a thousand, or two thousand 'likely' voters.

In the primaries, the GOP turned out about 19 million actual voters, in total, for all nine or ten of their candidates combined.

The Democrats turned out about 37 million actual voters.

A little over 18 million for Obama, slightly less for Mrs. Clinton.

Unless McCain flips eighteen million Democrats, this is going to be an epic blowout.

Little wonder the MSM, scions of the status quo, cheerleaders of our foreign policy disasters, are interested in getting you to think it's close.

I'm not buying it. Neither should you.

[Romulox]

1. Bad logic. No evidence that the number of primary voters is a good predictor of GE votes...

The lower turnout for the Republican primary is likely due to the fact that it was not dramatically contested until the bitter end...

[dave123williams]

6. Other than that people who vote in the primaries will probably vote in the general.

If someone is civic enough to vote in the primaries....it stands to reason they'll be the same people who show up on Nov 4....and you know it.

[Romulox]

12. Right, but it doesn't follow from this that Republicans won't also come out to vote

[dave123williams]

15. Of course. Because they're so proud of what they've accomplished in seven short years.

[cayuga]

9. Nah...

The overwhelming democrat vote is reflective of the mood of the COUNTRY. There are far more democrat voters in 2008 than repug voters. That is simple statistics. Just about everything in our society today is controlled by the administration in power. Even the polls.

The only way a McCain win will deflect an all-out civil war is to pretend that the vote is close.

The vote is NOT EVEN CLOSE!! There are 2 and a half dem voters to every repug voter.

[Romulox]

13. Scientific opinion polls are a much better indication of the overall mood of the country...nt

[cayuga]

14. Anything remotely resembling science left the building in 2000. n/t

[Midlodemocrat]

2. First time in history that my county ran out of Democratic ballots.

I agree with you. I think it's going to be a blowout. I PRAY it's going to be a blowout. I'm hoping for a reverse 1972 with McCain only getting one state.

[GreenPartyVoter]

3. I dunno. I am sure there are a lot of people who do not vote in the primaries but who do show up for

the GEs. And then, of course, there's the election theft bit. :(

[jwirr]

11. You are correct, just think about the caucus states. They alone will

have much better turnout at GE. Plus do these polls ever reflect the new registrations?

[dave123williams]

16. Excellent point. There are a BUNCH of new voters turning out for the first time.

The polls are bunk designed to preserve the status quo.

[murray hill farm]

4. If they can convince us that it is "close"

then it will be so much easier to steal it in November.

[dave123williams]

7. That's exactly what they're trying to do. Funny how nobody talks about the primary vote count.

[murray hill farm]

5. OOps...wrong thread.

[stillcool]

8. Perception = Reality

[KharmaTrain]

10. Nah...Let's Panic and Start The Blame Game...

Methinks some people need to step away from the teevee for a while...the corporate media worms are starting to eat holes into their heads.

They live and die by their "national polls"...but according to my Constitution (the parts that are still "operative), elections are decided by the Electoral College...and the devil is in the details.

Check out these trendlines...and you tell me whose REALLY in trouble:

Virginia:


Ohio:


and Michigan:


The pollsters and the corporate media also ignore the ground game that going on...the term is "retail politics" that wins elections. It's what won Senator Obama the nomination...and below the corporate media radar. It's reaching voters on the personal level...and Governor Dean and Senator Obama are already on the ground and running where Gramps will try to "bomb" from the air.

Those primary number don't lie. Not only are Democratic numbers way up...and registration data continues to verify a big advantage for Democrats going into this election. In essence, its for Senator Obama and the rest of us to win.

Should Senator Obama play tougher? Of course, but not to the corporate media or Gramp's tune...straying from issues and making it into a personality fight. Right now Gramps is throwing the "kitchen sink"...and most of what he's throwing, just like Senator Clinton, not only isn't sticking, it's starting to fall back on them.

Cheers....