Ike intensifying explosively

[Strelnikov_]

Dr. Jeff Masters, 9:19 PM EDT on September 10, 2008

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1079&tstamp=200809

Hurricane Ike is intensifying dramatically. The central pressure has dropped 11 mb in just four hours, and stood at 947 mb at 7 pm EDT. The latest Hurricane Hunter data show that the pressure is continuing to fall at a rapid pace. The winds have not caught up yet to the pressure fall, and remain at Catgeroy 2 strength. The satellite presentation of the hurricane has improved markedly, as Ike has walled off the dry air that was bothering it, and has built a solid eyewall of 9 miles diameter of very intense thunderstorms. The appearance of Ike on infrared satellite loops is similar to Hurricane Wilma during its rapid intensification phase, when Wilma became the strongest hurricane on record. Like Wilma, Ike has a very tiny "pinhole" eye, but the storm is huge in size. Ike has a long way to go to match Wilma, but I expect Ike will be at least a Category 3 hurricane by morning, and probably a Category 4.

Ike is almost as large as Katrina was, and this large wind field is already beginning to pile up a formidable storm surge. Tides are running 2-4 feet above normal along the Gulf Coast from Louisiana to the west coast of Florida. Tides have risen one foot above normal in Galveston already, too. The water level will continue to rise as Ike approaches Texas, and NOAA's experimental storm surge forecast (Figure 1) is calling for a 10% chance that the storm tide from Ike will reach 10-12 feet at Galveston, and 18-21 feet on the south and east sides of Houston.

Ike is likely to be a extremely dangerous major hurricane at landfall, and will likely do $10-$30 billion in damage. The chances of hundreds of people being killed in this storm is high if people do not heed evacuation orders. It is possible that Ike will make a direct hit on Galveston as a Category 4 hurricane with 145 mph winds. The potential storm surge from such a hit could be in the 15-25 foot range (Figure 2), which is capable of overwhelming the 17 foot sea wall in Galveston. I put the odds of such an event at about 5%.

[rsmith6621]

1. Ike Spun Tornado Warnings Up In Orlando Tonight

from the outer bands....this is one big monster.

[LonelyLRLiberal]

2. I have a married child living 1 mile from the beach in south Texas.

She is facing the possibility of losing her home and everything in it. They will evacuate and take the animals, photos, important papers, clothes and toiletries. There is no way to get anything else out and a surge that high will put the entire house under water. Thankfully, they do have time to get out and they have insurance (but probably not enough). It grieves me that I can't do anything to really help.

[cwydro]

3. We are still having high gusts here in the Keys.

Actually just picked up again in the last hour or so, which is because it turned more north I assume.

[Edweird]

4. The wind is STILL blowing here in South Florida.

I hate the wind....