U.S. intelligence draft warns Iraq violence could explode

[AlCzervik]

By Jonathan S. Landay, Warren P. Strobel and Nancy A. Youssef -
Published 12:00 am PDT Wednesday, October 8, 2008

WASHINGTON – A nearly completed high-level U.S. intelligence analysis warns that unresolved ethnic and sectarian tensions in Iraq could unleash a new wave of violence, potentially reversing the major security and political gains achieved over the last year.

U.S. officials familiar with the new National Intelligence Estimate said they were unsure when the top-secret report would be completed and whether it would be published before the Nov. 4 presidential election.

More than a half-dozen officials spoke to McClatchy on condition of anonymity because NIEs, the most authoritative analyses produced by the U.S. intelligence community, are restricted to the president, his senior aides and members of Congress except in rare instances when just the key findings are made public.

The new NIE, which reflects the consensus of all 16 U.S. intelligence agencies, has significant implications for Republican John McCain and Democrat Barack Obama, whose differences over the Iraq war are a major issue in the presidential campaign.

The findings seem to cast doubts on McCain's frequent assertions that the United States is "on a path to victory" in Iraq by underscoring the deep uncertainties of the situation despite the 30,000-strong U.S. troop surge for which he was the leading congressional advocate.

But McCain also could use the findings to try to strengthen his argument for keeping U.S. troops in Iraq until conditions stabilize.

For Obama, the report raises questions about whether he could fulfill his pledge to withdraw most of the remaining 152,000 U.S. troops within 16 months of taking office so that more U.S. forces could be sent to battle the growing Taliban insurgency in Afghanistan.

Word of the draft NIE comes at a time when Iraq is enjoying its lowest levels of violent incidents since early 2004 and a 77 percent drop in civilian deaths in June through August of this year over the same period in 2007, according to the Defense Department.

U.S. officials say last year's surge of 30,000 troops, all of whom have been withdrawn, was just one reason for the improvements.

Other factors include the truce declared by anti-U.S. cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, the leader of an Iran-backed Shiite Muslim militia; and the enlistment of former Sunni insurgents in Awakening groups created by the U.S. military to fight al-Qaida in Iraq and other extremists.

The draft NIE, however, warns that the improvements in security and political progress, like the recent passage of a provincial election law, are threatened by lingering disputes among the majority Shiite Arabs, Sunni Arabs, Kurds and other minorities, the U.S. officials said.


http://www.sacbee.com/111/v-print/story/1296640.html

[sinkingfeeling]

1. Duh! When the Sunnis decide to use all those weapons and the money they've been given by the US

in an attempt to regain some power/jobs/political clout, the only true solution is to break up Iraq into separate states.

[LynnTheDem]

2. WE are the PROBLEM in Iraq. WE have slaughtered men, women & kids. WE

have allowed "ethnic cleansing" -gee that sounds so much gentler than GENOCIDE, doesn't it- to happen in Iraq.

The vast majority of Iraqis never wnated us to invade their country -who the fuck ever does want to be invaded by foreigners??!- and have wanted us the fuck OUT of their country ever since. And that is FACT.

WE are the problem in Iraq.

That's another fact.