10/28 ELECTION MODEL (TIA):..OBAMA 381 EV!...76-62m!...Pew RV 52-36!...AZ, MT, GA, ND in play! -x

[tiptoe]

Full story:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=7647439&mesg_id=7647439

The Election Model (EM) assumes as a base case that a fraud-free election is held today — and that current polls reflect the true vote. ... For McCain to win, he needs approximately 10% of Obama’s votes switched to his column (see the table below).

The BAD news: ...

The GOOD news: ...

• Understanding the Election Fraud of 2004 by the impossible numbers
• How current 2008-Obama compares with final 2004-Kerry Projected Votes -- State by state

2008 ELECTION MODEL
A  Monte Carlo  Electoral  Vote  Simulation

TruthIsAll

Updated: October 28

Press REFRESH after linking to a graph to view the latest update

Chart   State Poll Aggregate + Projection Trend

Chart   National 5-Poll Moving Average Projection

Chart   State vs. National: Vote Share Projection Trends

Chart   Battleground-State Polls

Chart   Battleground-State Win Probability

Chart   Obama Electoral Vote Simulation Frequency

Chart   Electoral Vote + Win Probability Trend

Chart   Electoral Vote + Projected Vote Share Trend

Chart   Undecided Voter Allocation + Win Probability

Chart   Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Simulation Trials

 2008 Election Model Fraud Analyzer 

Uncounted  &  Switched Votes

Chart   Effect on Obama Projected Vote Share

Chart   Effect on Obama Projected Electoral Vote

 

“I’m glad that TIA raises the questions. A Top 10 list.”  — Sancho

 

This
State
National
State
National
Monte  Carlo
Simulation

Update
Poll
5-Poll
2-party
2-party
Expected

10/28/2008
Aggregate
Average
Projection
Projection
Electoral Vote

Obama
McCain
 51.60 (54.84) 
 42.50 (45.16) 
 50.20 (53.18) 
 44.20 (46.82) 
55.2
44.8
53.5
46.5
 379.5 
 158.5 

    

15-Poll

End

Sample

Poll

NATIONAL MODEL

 

Pre   Undecided Voter Allocation
5-Poll Mov Avg

 

2-Party Projection  (60% UVA)
5-Poll Mov Avg

Trend
                            
Research2k
Gallup
Zogby
Hotline/FD
Rasmussen

ABC/WP
Battleground
Pew Research
Newsweek
CBS/NYT

FOX News
Pew Resrch
Ipsos
NBC/WSJ
CNN

Registered V
vs     Likely V
Poll Averages

Date
            
10/27
10/27
10/27
10/27
10/27

10/26
10/27
10/26
10/23
10/22

10/21
10/19
10/20
10/20
10/19

Size   
              
1100 LV
2794 RV
1202 LV
878 LV
3000 LV

1321 LV
1000 LV
1325 RV
882 LV
771 LV

936 LV
2382 LV
773 LV
1159 RV
764 LV

RV avg
LV avg
Total
2-party

MoE
         
2.95%
1.85%
2.83%
3.31%
1.79%

2.70%
3.10%
2.69%
3.30%
3.53%

3.20%
2.01%
3.52%
2.88%
3.55%

Obama
            
50.4
50
49
50
51

52
49
52
53
52

49
53
50
52
51

51.33
50.78
50.89
54.60

McCain
            
42.7
43
45
42
46

45
46
36
41
39

40
39
42
42
46

40.33
42.81
42.31
45.40

Other
            
6.9
7
6
8
3

3
5
12
6
9

11
8
8
6
3

8.33
6.41
6.79
0.00

Spread
            
7.7
7
4
8
5

7
3
16
12
13

9
14
8
10
5

11.00
7.97
8.58
9.21

 

Obama
            
50.2
50.4
50.9
51.3
51.1

51.4
51.1
51.6
51.4
51.0

50.4
51.0
50.6
51.0
51.0

McCain
            
44.2
43.3
43.0
42.1
41.9

40.9
40.4
39.9
41.3
41.1

41.1
41.0
41.3
41.4
41.3

Spread
            
6.0
7.1
7.9
9.1
9.3

10.6
10.7
11.7
10.1
9.9

9.3
10.0
9.3
9.6
9.7

Win Prob
               
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0

100.0
100.0
99.8
99.9
99.9

100.0
99.9
98.7
98.0
95.7

 

Obama
            
53.5
54.2
54.5
55.2
55.3

56.1
56.2
56.7
55.8
55.7

55.5
55.8
55.5
55.5
55.6

McCain
            
46.5
45.8
45.5
44.8
44.7

43.9
43.8
43.3
44.2
44.3

44.5
44.2
44.5
44.5
44.4

Spread
            
7.1
8.4
9.1
10.5
10.7

12.1
12.4
13.4
11.6
11.4

11.0
11.6
10.9
11.1
11.3

Win Prob
               
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0

100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0

100.0
100.0
99.9
99.8
99.3

 

 

-- full story --

 

[tiptoe]

1. "This analysis presumes a 'fraud free election' and predicts a 'true vote landslide' "-Peace Patriot

Keep those caveats in mind. This election is already fraud-ridden--with tens of thousands of registered voters unfairly purged, in Georgia, Ohio and other places. Further, it will be tabulated, everywhere, by 'TRADE SECRET,' PROPRIETARY programming code, owned and controlled by rightwing Bushite corporations, with virtually no audit/recount controls.

This gives the three major election theft corporations--Diebold ("Premier"), ES&S and Sequoia--all with close ties to the Republican Party, one of them (Diebold) whose CEO was a Bush-Cheney campaign chair, and another, its spinoff corp, ES&S, with nutball extremist 'christian' ties--enormous power which can be used brutally, to outright steal any election in the country, including the presidential election, or subtly, say to shape and mold Congress to serve the rightwing agenda (done quite successfully in '06).

Here's my prediction: Obama is so popular, and the people of this country are so overwhelmingly fed up and hungry for change, that the Corpo/Fascist dragons who rule over us will not risk denying him victory. If they do, they will lose their election theft machines for future purposes (and don't kid yourself that they don't have long term plans). So they will let him win, is my guess, but they significantly shave his mandate (the pre-written narrative for this is already in play) as part of a strategy to limit the "damage" that a true representative of the people in the White House might do to Corpo/Fascist power. They also will VERY LIKELY inflict him with a Puke/'Blue Dog'-infested Congress (like the present one). They have already tied his hands--as to any kind of "New Deal" for the American people--by the financial 9/11 that the Bushwhacks just pulled off. I think they have in mind a short and tumultuous Obama term in office, with the Corpo/Fascist 'news' monopolies blaming Obama and "the liberals" for all the troubles that we may see, and they will then install someone possibly worse than Bush and Cheney in 2012.

The latter part of the above scenario is NOT a prediction, but rather what I see as the possible game plan of those who are looting us, and who now have near 100% non-transparent control of our voting system. I think they WILL shave Obama's mandate, and WILL produce a retro-Congress, and they certainly have brought the mighty twin towers of the U.S. economy--banking and trade--straight down in piles of rubble and dust. But what happens NEXT is up to us, not them. And here's what we must do to prevent their game plan from playing out...

1. First and foremost, we must--WE MUST!--restore transparent vote counting!

2. We must also undo all the purging of the voter rolls, and re-enfranchise all of our citizens; and work hard on other aspects of our democratic institutions, for instance, the news media.

3. And we must pull together! Germany fell prey to Hitler in the 1930s due to the inability of the center-left to govern a country suffering catastrophic financial ruin. We are a far different country than Germany was; still, the parallels are haunting. This means that we MUST avoid the fractiousness that is so tempting to leftists. We must realize how much danger this country is in, and how much danger our political leaders are in, after eight years of extremely damaging rule by this fascist coup. Obama is not a magician. And his leadership will be no better, and no worse, than our citizenship. PULL TOGETHER!
•••

Full commentary by Peace Patriot: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=203&topic_id=509978&mesg_id=509982

[tiptoe]

2. k!

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

3. More Spamming. Still Haven't Gotten The Hint?

[tiptoe]

4. k!

[malaise]

5. Thanks for your hard work

:grouphug:

[tiptoe]

6. ok! appreciated n/t

[texpatriot2004]

7. Excellent fraud analyzer. Thanks for posting this info. It's

awesome.