Early voting has already exceeded 2004 totals in 3 states: GA, NC, and LA., led by black voters

[bigtree]

from The Democratic Strategist: http://www.thedemocraticstrategist.org/strategist/2008/10/race_and_early_voting.php


Based on statistics and analysis provided by Michael McDonald of George Mason University, Nate Silver's reached one clear conclusion about early voting patterns across the country: http://blogs.tnr.com/tnr/blogs/the_plank/archive/2008/10/28/the-black-turnout-surge-already-in-progress.aspx

The African-American population share is the key determinant of early voting behavior. In states where there are a lot of black voters, early voting is way, way up. In states with fewer African-Americans, the rates of early voting are relatively normal.

This works at the county level too. In Cuyahoga County, Ohio (Cleveland), which about 30 percent black, twice as many people have already voted early as in all of 2004. In Franklin County (Columbus), which is about 18 percent black and also has tons of students, early voting is already about 3x its 2004 total.

So when McCain's pollster talks about Obama's black vote being "locked in", he is at best getting the story half-right. It's true that there aren't very many African-Americans who are reporting themselves as undecided. But any polling based on 2004 assumptions about what black turnout will look like is probably going to miss the mark significantly.

Most notably, early voting this year has already exceeded 2004 totals in three states: GA, NC, and LA. Based on Voting Rights Act compliance data, the African-American share of the early vote is 35% in GA (25% of total vote in 2004), 36% in LA (27% in 2004), and 28% in NC (26% in 2004).

It's notable that the African-American share of early voting in these three states (especially the battleground state of NC) seems to be dropping steadily as Election Day approaches, which could validate (though I certainly hope not) my own theory that we're beginning to see a southern white backlash to news reports of heavy African-American early voting. But with Obama adding somewhere between 5% and 10% to John Kerry's 2004 margin among black voters, even a proportionate increase in African-American turnout will yield a significant net vote bonanza.


Posted by Ed Kilgore from DS on October 29, 2008 09:22 AM

[SharonAnn]

1. And in Knoxville, TN metro area. 68% of my precinct has already voted early!

As the Election Officer in a large, high percentage voting precinct, it is my goal to reduce Election Day lines and get people to vote early. I worked hard to get the word out about early voting times and locations for this election. Looks like I succeeded! We still have a couple of days of Early Voting left, so I expect that we will finish with about 75% having already voted early. And, of the 25% left, some of them will have moved away and others will not voted at all. So, we'll probably have about 1,000 to 1,200 on election Day instead of a large percentage of the 5,920 whoa re registered.

Thank goodness! We should have a manageable day and not have the typical 45 minute to 1 1/2 hour lines.

I did a lot of work to get the word out about early voting in this precinct and got the election office to supplement our efforts with some sign along the major roadways.

I was dreading long lines and angry voters, which we've had with just normal turnout.. Some people don't realize that if they get really angry and threaten me, that all I have to do is call the sheriff's office to have the voter removed. And I really don't want to have to do that. I want people to be able to get in, sign the poll book, and vote in a timely manner. Even though many of them are Republicans. I want all qualified voters to vote and for it to be a positive experience.

[Winterblues]

5. Sounds like you expect at least 80%- 90% turn out in your district

:thumbsup:

[knowledgeispwr]

2. AA share of the total vote in NC in 2004 was much lower

Something like 19%. The 26% figure (widely reported) was incorrect.

[rucky]

3. I don't think pre-election polls have been counting for this.

"likely voters" voted last time. new voters are hard to wrangle up for a poll.

[RebelOne]

4. Voters here in the Atlanta area

are standing for hours in line. Fortunately, I voted by absentee ballot last week.