Is the African-American/Prop 8 Exit Poll Connection Viable? ~ Edward Champion/EdRants

[mzmolly]

There are lies, damned lies, and exit polls. A purported connection between race and homophobia has recently made the rounds, prompting big think pieces from the likes of the Washington Post. We’ve been told that 7 out of 10 African-Americans who went to the California polls voted yes on Proposition 8 — a measure that passed on Tuesday overruling the California Supreme Court judgment that legalized same-sex marriage.

Even more amazing than this is the way this correlation is getting a free pass. The only way you can bring a demographic into election statistics is through the exit poll. But exit polls have problems. Back in 2006, Mark Blumenthal initiated a helpful series of posts summarizing some of the flaws: where the interviewer is standing in relation to the polling place, how well-trained the interviewer is, the tendency for voters who volunteer to participate upon seeing the interviewer with the clipboard, the inclination for the polls to favor Democrats in presidential election since 1988, and so forth. In 2005, the Washington Post reported that interviewing for the 2004 exit polls was “the most inaccurate of any in the past five presidential elections.” Large numbers of Republicans refused to talk with interviewers, and this, in turn, led to an inflated estimate for John Kerry. But despite these problems, exit poll faith is a bit like stubborn fabric softener sticking to a hard wonk’s argyle sweater. .....

Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International were the team behind the 2004 polling botch, and this dynamic duo also spearheaded this week’s California exit polling. The hard data is not yet available at the Edison/Mitofsky site. But the Associated Press has reported that 2,240 California voters (of these, 765 were absentees interviewed by landline telephone), interviewed in 30 precincts, represented the total number of people that Edison/Mitofsky interviewed. Which means that some percentage of these voters were African-American. Let’s give Edison/Mitofsky 50%. That leaves us with a mere 1,120 voters.

MORE AT http://www.edrants.com/is-the-african-americanprop-8-exit-poll-connection-viable/">LINK

[amdezurik]

1. in reality the numbers of each group

were detailed in that poll result from CNN so this entire piece is based on supposition and is false on it's face. Sorry.

[mzmolly]

2. Sorry, I've misplaced the link, do you have it handy?

There are different exit polls with different results, why do you think CNN would focus on one? It is my understanding that they used the data Edrants noted above?

See the last paragraph here > http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/n/a/2008/11/05/state/n111547S31.DTL

"The survey of 2,240 California voters was conducted for AP by Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International. Most were interviewed in a random sample of 30 precincts statewide Tuesday; 765 who voted early or absentee were interviewed by landline telephone over the last week. Results for the full sample were subject to sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points, higher for subgroups."

[amdezurik]

4. here you go

and yeah the demo break-down is pretty clear and it looks like the pollsters did not put any numbers down if their was less then 5% as a sample.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#CAI01p1

[EFerrari]

6. Then how do we explain Alameda County with one of the highest

if not the highest % of black residents at 14%, where H8 went down in flames, 60 - 40, iirc.

We're going to find out that blaming black Baptists was a PR strategery and one that has worked pretty well.

[amdezurik]

9. well then it is a dammed good thing I didn't do that

How to explain one particular county? No idea. what is the age/race demo there? Young voters went NO about 60-40 so that COULD have been part of it. And then again as far as registered voters, what were the numbers on turn-out? Was/is there any breakdown on that in age/race terms? just tossing out one data point does not prove or disprove anything.

[EFerrari]

10. Oh, I didn't mean that you did. But that was clearly the narrative we've been sold

since Tuesday.

And I agree about gathering information. CA hasn't even finished couonting yet.

I don't know about the age ratio in Alameda Co. vs, say, Los Angeles County. I did learn over the weekend that the Latino vote is the youngest as a group of any in California.

Also learned that we did better by more than 10 pts this time than we did the last time this was put up for a vote -- and this is WITH the big turn out of black voters.

I guess what I'm saying is, we don't have all of the information we need yet.

[mzmolly]

12. Thanks, though I fail to see where the OP is disputed?

:shrug:

From the original post:

"Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International were the team behind the 2004 polling botch, and this dynamic duo also spearheaded this week’s California exit polling. The hard data is not yet available at the Edison/Mitofsky site. But the Associated Press has reported that 2,240 California voters (of these, 765 were absentees interviewed by landline telephone), interviewed in 30 precincts, represented the total number of people that Edison/Mitofsky interviewed. Which means that some percentage of these voters were African-American. Let’s give Edison/Mitofsky 50%. That leaves us with a mere 1,120 voters."

This piece was written before the data was available, but it does not negate the premise.

Also note on page 3 - 80% of those polled voted for Bush in the last election. 74% think Obama is too liberal. I fail to see how this group represents the average California demographic.

[amdezurik]

30. by that statment you made just made, this disputation is even worse

if it was written BEFORE the data was in then it is even more useless an "analysys" then I first thought. So the entire OP is trash worthy if it is as you say...

[mzmolly]

32. Can you point to the specific portion you find "worthless?"

:shrug: I found it to be especially relevant after looking at the data?

[amdezurik]

31. oh and did you see the 30 precincts thing?

now go look at an Ca election map and you will see a lot of "red" precincts so that is not nearly as out of line as you might have assumed.

[mzmolly]

33. The point is if you poll red districts, you're going to get a different cross section

of voters than you would if you polled blue districts. Therefore, you can't draw conclusions about the entire country (and more specifically an ENTIRE group of people) based upon what a small segment of a particular population supposedly thinks. I don't know enough about the districts in question, however I would not consider one small poll like this one to tell us much of anything, regardless.

[amdezurik]

35. sigh, so you want to poll ONLY those places that agree with you

and me? Now that does not make a whole lot of sense right there...

[mzmolly]

36. No, I want to see several polls

before any conclusions are drawn.

[amdezurik]

5. FYI the only group to look good at all in it

is the under 30 crowd. yeah those darned kids are the future, sorry LDS wankers :)

[mzmolly]

17. Note that 80% of those who voted yes supported Bush in 04.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#val=CAI01p3

I misunderstood the data initially.

[amdezurik]

19. did you note that about 80% of those polled

ID'ed as repukes? That would be the 750-800 who were called on land-lines i would suppose. And depending on where in Ca the poll was taken 80% is not that out of line. If it was taken in the Central valley that would not be that far off.

[mzmolly]

21. There is an 8% point disparity in Bush V. Kerry voters in 04.

(Correcting my previous statement as it was incorrect)

[EFerrari]

3. Link to the Loyola poll:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=389&topic_id=4427599&mesg_id=4427712

:thumbsup:

[mzmolly]

16. *

Am I reading this wrong?

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#val=CAI01p3

I was reading it wrong. Of those who voted YES, 80% voted for Bush in 04.

[EFerrari]

27. I can't load it up. This is my spare tire. Sorry!

[mzmolly]

28. I misunderstood

anyhoo. See my corrected post.

[bemildred]

7. Seemed like "divide and rule" bullshit to me. nt

[mzmolly]

11. My thoughts as well.

:(

[David__77]

8. In some other states, exit polls showed Black voters as more pro-gay marriage than whites.

Like Virginia:

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2006//pages/results/states/VA/I/01/epolls.0.html

Or Arkansas:

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004//pages/results/states/AR/I/01/epolls.0.html

Or Kentucky:

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004//pages/results/states/KY/I/01/epolls.0.html

Or Mississippi:

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004//pages/results/states/MS/I/01/epolls.0.html

My point is that evidence on this issue nationally is mixed. There is a large margin of error when looking at a relatively small component of an exit poll. If anything, the above would be better studies as the Black vote is a larger share of the total voter pool than in California.

This is entirely unscientific, but if I had to bet, I'd wager that Black voters did not support Prop 8 by 70% - maybe 60%.

[mzmolly]

13. Excellent info Dave.

Thank you for sharing it.

[EFerrari]

14. If I wanted to launch the talking point that black people hate gay people

I'd do it in California. :(

[David__77]

15. I was uncomfortable with a couple signs I saw at an anti-Prop 8 rally here in Sacramento yesterday.

One sign said, "I helped elect Obama president and all I got was this marriage ban." Maybe I'm being oversensitive, but it seems to me that what he "got" was President Obama, who is immeasurably more pro-gay than not just Bush, but also better than any presidential nominee, ever, on gay issues. The implicit message seems to be "Black got theirs, but we didn't get ours." This is identity politics at its worst. We need more hard work, less complaining and empty talk.

[mzmolly]

18. I am reminded of Limbaugh's "operation chaos" in the primary election.

:(

[EFerrari]

23. Because there are no gay black people.

Right? :sarcasm:

I can only imagine how people in the black community are feeling about having supported No on H8 today.

This really needs to stop now, immediately.

[mzmolly]

24. I agree. It's sickening.

sigh...

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

20. This article gives the poll more credit than it deserves.

Only some 10% of voters were African Americans. And 220 people, in an exit poll, isn't a large enough sample of anything.

[mzmolly]

22. That's the point of the article

actually.

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

25. You can get a reasonably reliable opinion poll out of 1,100 people...

which the article gives to the poll.

But there's no way in hell you can get it from 200 people, and that's a much more reliable estimate, based on the poll's own numbers.

It'd be far less considering 80% were Bush voters.

[mzmolly]

26. This particular article questions the exit polls.

Though it's even more difficult to get an accurate given 80% of those polled voted R in the last election, 75% voted for McCain.

[Starry Messenger]

29. Rec rec rec! This is full of good info.

Thank you for posting. I thought I had smelled a rat all week. MSM and right wings blogs were pushing this hinky narrative so I'm glad to see real numbers are coming out.

[mzmolly]

34. See Dave 77's post here:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=389&topic_id=4431616&mesg_id=4431881