Can We Now Bury Any Future Talk Of The "Bradley Effect"?

[Rage for Order]

In the run up to the election nearly every media outlet in the nation, both traditional and new media, was abuzz with talk of the Bradley Effect. Most of us know that the Bradley Effect refers to white people telling pollsters they plan to vote for a minority candidate, but then vote for the white candidate on election day. For those of you who aren't familiar with the history of this you can find it http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bradley_effect">here.

It appears that the so-called Bradley Effect was much ado about nothing. The national polls showed Obama leading by about 8% one week prior to the election, and the current final tally is that he won by just under 7%, which is comfortably within the margin of error. By and large, people didn't lie to the pollsters. They voted for the person they said they were going to vote for. Our nation isn't filled with millions of closet bigots who won't admit to not voting for the black guy because he's black. Do you think the media will drop this narrative in future elections?



BTW: I apologize if this was discussed here already just after the election, but if it was I obviously missed the discussion. :)


edited for clarity

[Buzz Clik]

1. All the talk about the Bradley Effect kept down the worries about the October Surprise.

[tblue]

2. It' was DOA. I never believed it was a problem in this election.

It was media hype and nothing more.

Sarah Palin on the GOP ticket gave plenty of cover to anyone who couldn't come up with a rational explanation for voting against Barack Obama. The Reverse-Bradley Effect was more likely in certain circumstances, though I have yet to see any real data supporting its existence.

[CreekDog]

3. How many times do I have to post that the Bradley Effect was made up?

It was created by pollster Mervyn Field who didn't take into account absentee balloting in the 1982 governor's race. It was latched onto by the Bradley campaign who stopped campaigning weeks before the election thanks to their polling lead, only to see it slip away to a tie on Election Day (the result was essentially a tie also).

Nobody who was polled in 1982 had to worry about being thought a racist, all they had to do was say they were voting for the Republican, George Deukmejian.

[peace13]

5. Thank you CreekDog.

It is a thankless job sometimes. Peace, Kim

[StClone]

4. The Other Bradley Effect

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2004/12/14/20544/822

Robert Welsh, who founded the Society in 1958, was a regular speaker at Allen-Bradley sales meetings. Harry distributed Birchite literature, as did Fred Loock, another key figure at the company. They also supported the Australian doctor Fred Schwarz, founder of the Christian Anti-Communist Crusade and a right-wing Midwest radio program produced by anti-communist producer Bob Siegrist. Harry's main political targets were "World Communism" and the U.S. federal government, not necessarily in that order. His political philosophy was laissez-faire capitalism, and he was strongly opposed to anything that might restrict his freedom to conduct his business as he saw fit...

Allen-Bradley was one of the last major Milwaukee employers to racially integrate, and then only through legal pressure. By 1968, when the company's workforce had grown to more than 7,000, Allen-Bradley employed only 32 Blacks and 14 Latinos....

While the Allen-Bradley Foundation was building and would go under a monumental shift in it's reach down the road, the catalytic roots of the "new" right, which would spawn the anti-gay propaganda mills were taking shape in 1964 as Goldwater went down to defeat and Johnson was alienating the Christian evangelical whites by forcing desegregation in the south and where spearheaded by beer and a deacon.

More on the Bradley's: http://www.dkosopedia.com/wiki/Bradley_Foundation