Experts predict Calif. justices will uphold Prop 8

[Ian David]

Source: The Washington Blade

Experts predict Calif. justices will uphold Prop 8
18,000 same-sex marriages already performed seen as safe
Friday, Mar 13, 2009 | Chris Johnson | COMMENTS

Legal experts who once hoped the California Supreme Court would overturn Proposition 8 now expect justices to uphold the measure.

Justices heard oral arguments March 5 over the constitutionality of Prop 8 — an amendment that ended same-sex marriage in California — and whether the 18,000 same-sex marriages performed in the state are still valid.

Gay activists and attorneys from some California municipalities argued the court should invalidate Prop 8 because it is not an “amendment” but rather a “revision” to
the state’s constitution, thereby requiring a two-thirds vote from both chambers of the California Legislature for approval.

<snip>

Experts who watched the hearing said afterward that justices telegraphed in their line of questioning that they favored upholding the amendment.


Proposition 8 opponent Craig Winsor (left) argues with the measure’s supporters Galena Andreyev (center) and Victor Choban during a March 5 demonstration in San Francisco. (Photo by Marcio Jose Sanchez/AP)

Read more: http://www.washblade.com/2009/3-13/news/national/14201.cfm

[Taverner]

1. FUCK

:grr:

[TheWraith]

6. Enh. It was always a long shot.

They'll have to fix it by way of another amendment.

And while you're at it, California: 50% plus one is a stupid-ass way to amend your constitution. You might want to fix that.

[Critters2]

10. This is why I voted against a Constitutional Convention in Illinois

in November. People who wanted it mostly were hoping to add referendum rights like California has, and gubernatorial recall and shit like that. Seems like chaos to me.

[apnu]

23. Yeah I voted NO to the ConCon also, for the same reasons.

I looked at the foolishness of CA's system and decided that Illinois had enough problems, we didn't need more.

[ieoeja]

24. Me makes three.

And, yes, it was CA's goofiness on various props and the coup/recall that made up my mind more than anything else.

Hey, California, you know your politics must really suck when Illinois looks better!

[NorthCarolina]

11. I would imagine that Prop 8 Supporters will quickly seek to change the amendment process

to require more than a simple majority, in an effort to prevent Prop 8 being from overturned by a simple majority in any future amendment.

[Hell Hath No Fury]

13. You are right.

The legal arguement made was that it was unconstitutional in CA to amend the constitution through a ballot initiative. The Justices (correctly) are going to rule there is nothing in the CA constitution that currently prohibits that.

It sucks, but there it is. :mad: :(

[Taverner]

26. Thats it. Next Mormon I see is getting a fucking fat lip

:grr:

[Igel]

29. I'm not sure that's a valid inference.

The justices could uphold it--reading tea-leaves is a notoriously difficult, wet, and messy art.

Even if they uphold Prop 8 they still may find that the argument "it's unconstitutional in CA to amend the constitution through ballot initiative" is correct--just that it's irrelevant here and that Prop 8 *doesn't* amend the Constitution but instead amends an inferred interpretation stated by the court. That would unlease hordes of canned worms, but they may have another trick up their sleeves. Robes, after all, have remarkably copious sleeves.

[No Elephants]

36. They could rule that ballots cannot limit the civil rights of a minority, but I

doubt they will, more's the pity.

They could also rule that the Constitution is for declaring and expanding human rights, not for limiting individual rights, but I doubt they will, more's the pity.

Either would be a damned sensible ruling.

[villager]

2. We the people will have to overturn the hate at the ballot box...

n/t

[slackmaster]

3. The problem is more a result of ignorance than hatred

A lot of people out there belive, in their ignorance, that sexual orientation is the result of a lifestyle choice.

Fix that problem, and everything else will fall into line.

[depakid]

35. Fix that scientifically, and sexual orientation becomes an immutable characteristic

under the Federal Civil Rights Act....

[Tempest]

4. It'll take time, but it will be done

Proposition 22, the original anti-gay marriage measure the court threw out, received 61% of the vote in 2000.

Proposition 8 only received 52% of the vote.

Support for anti-gay marriage laws have dropped 9 points in 8 years.

Younger voters approve of equal rights by a wide margin and they are becoming of voting age every year while the neanderthals are dying out.

[Gormy Cuss]

27. Every age group over 30 polled as voting in favor, not just seniors.

The neanderthals were the Republicans, self-described conservatives, and white evangelicals -- all three groups polled at over 80% in favor of Prop. 8. By comparison seniors polled at 61% in favor.

[rosesaylavee]

28. I agree.

But was hoping that this would take a large step forward instead of this side step. :(

But it will happen. I am sure of it.

[Tesha]

37. That's precisely why the Court's likely to uphold it.

Courts, especially periodically-re-elected courts, are still
political animals. And given the long-term trend in favor
of equal marriage, they can see that there's no need to
unleashe a firestorm this year when in another year or
two, CA will simply vote to legalize equal marrage.

Tesha

[bluestateguy]

14. Agreed

Every election cycle that goes by, more and more elderly homophobes will be, uh, no longer with us, to vote their hatreds at the ballot box.

[JI7]

32. the Supreme Court is where it will have the final say

i mean the issue of same sex marriage overall and not just prop 8.

[onehandle]

5. From the state that let Arnold get in and then elected him, good and proper.

I suspected that it would not be overturned from the start.

Crap.

[Ian David]

9. And since then they've been plagued with fires, floods, and earthquakes.

See?

Magnitude 4.3 Earthquake Shakes South Bay
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=3807385&mesg_id=3807385

[Terran]

17. fires floods and earthquakes

are just nature's way in California. That's one reason the lanscape is so picturesque there.

[fascisthunter]

7. Prop 8 is Unconstitutional....

nobody has the right to vote on others rights.... should we all vote on other parts of the Constitution too? Scared right wing wimps... all of them.

[acmavm]

8. I never expected this from California. I know it's been decades

since I've been there BUT I surely never expected this from California.

[Politicalboi]

12. Well then maybe

Us gays shouldn't pay our state taxes since we are second class citizens. I'm tired of paying taxes for everyones kids so why the fuck should I have to pay for schools. We should be exempt. Fuck em. Until we are equal we shouldn't have to pay a fucking dime.

[Tim01]

15. I never expected something like Prop8 from California

I kind of figured California was sympathetic toward gays.
California, take your place with Alabama,Mississippi, and Kentucky.

[slackmaster]

19. A few things a lot of people don't get about California

We have a large Hispanic population, a large number of whom are observant Roman Catholics.

We also have vast rural areas that are very conservative.

Registered Democrats account for less than half of California voters.

[Tim01]

21. Wow. I never knew that.

Of course, I've never lived in California so all I hear is basically internet gossip.

[BlancheSplanchnik]

30. very informative--not at all the perception of Cali.

We live in a rural area of NY state; I understand about the limbots mindset

[blueclown]

16. This is stupid. Wait until the California Supreme Court issues its decision.

These are just guesses. My hope is that they do overturn Prop 8, and we all should be hopeful of that.

[defendandprotect]

18. This is tragic not only for CA and homosexuals -- but for the nation--!!!

Right wing courts will hold us back forever . . .

This process has to be found Unconstitutional -- !!!

[CubicleGuy]

20. Jerry Brown's lawyer...

... arguing before the SC was simply awful. It was painful to watch. How in the world did that guy get selected for the job? Nothing else scheduled for that day or something?

Good grief.

[xxqqqzme]

33. Yes, it was painful to watch.

He was a bumbling idiot w/ the questions from the Justices. My heart sank listening to him.

[Bluenorthwest]

22. Of course they will

California is mostly conservative anyway, tons of Democrats voted for H8, they elected Arnold not once but twice and they will make him a Senator upon his request.

[closeupready]

25. no surprises here either.

You know, there's something sad about the state of affairs in this country when daily civil rights setbacks fail to shock or surprise.

[harry_pothead]

31. It's on to 2010.

Yes on Prop X.

[sakabatou]

34. *sigh*

People might have to wait until the next election cycle.

[No Elephants]

38. Seven California Supreme Court Justices. One appointed by Davis. All others appointed by

Republicans.