Italy muzzled scientist who predicted quake

[cal04]

http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/L669778.htm

An Italian scientist predicted a major earthquake around L'Aquila weeks before disaster struck the city on Monday, killing more than 100 people, but was reported to authorities for spreading panic.

The government on Monday insisted the warning, by seismologist Gioacchino Giuliani, had no scientific foundation but Giuliani said he had been vindicated and wanted an apology.

The first tremors in the region were felt in mid-January and continued at regular intervals, creating mounting alarm in the medieval city, about 100 km (60 miles) east of Rome.

Vans with loudspeakers drove around the town a month ago telling locals to evacuate their houses after Giuliani, from the National Institute of Astrophysics, predicted a large quake was on the way, prompting the mayor's anger.

Giuliani, who based his forecast on concentrations of radon gas around seismically active areas, was reported to police for "spreading alarm" and was forced to remove his findings from the Internet.

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

1. Muzzled?

They said he was full of shit.

And he was.

Fuckers like this result in unnecessary deaths. The same sort of nut predicted an earthquake following the Asian tsunami and it resulted in panic. A number of people were trampled.

[thereismore]

3. I supposed the nut that predicted earthquake after tsunami also used scientific measurements such as

radon release? I guess you are against volcano monitoring as well? Friend of Jindal?

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

4. He used pseudoscientific measurements, such as radon release.

"I guess you are against volcano monitoring as well?"

No, volcano monitoring is actually a scientific process.

[thereismore]

6. So the Italian guy got "lucky" I take it? I thought he was a volcano monitor.

My mistake.

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

7. Well, yeah.

At any given time there's always somebody predicting major earthquakes everywhere, so every time some major earthquake happens somewhere, somebody ends up looking prescient. At least to the scientifically illiterate.

[thereismore]

10. I thought he was a scientist working on volcano monitoring. Sorry. nt

[Warpy]

2. The loudspeakers were a public nuisance

and I think he'd be banned here no matter what he was warning us about. Add a population on its last nerve because of a swarm of small quakes and it's no wonder they told him to knock it off.

The problem with his prediction is that it was too far out.

If he could have predicted it within days, or preferably hours, he would undoubtedly be a hero. As it is, he's done something important in being able to predict it several weeks out (his prediction was in January and that's when he started the loudspeaker campaign).

Vacating one's home for a period of four months because a quake is predicted "very soon" is just not feasible for most of us.

[Canuckistanian]

5. He may have had some legitimate data, but his "warning" was insane

Nobody can predict earthquakes within hours or even weeks. Many have tried and failed, notably the Chinese.

And if you DO think you have absolute proof of an impending disaster, you don't go around in a loudspeaker van, frightening the populace.

This is by no means "a vindication" of his actions. For all we know about predictability of earthquakes, this may have been a coincidence.

[malaise]

8. Whatever it was I'm betting that those who

moved from the area before the quake as a result of his prediction are not complaining today.

[screembloodymurder]

9. You're wrong.

Predictions can be made, but they're only 60% accurate.

[SoCalDem]

11. I predict that Italy will have many more earthquakes and volcanic eruptions too

:eyes:

Look at those beautiful old ruins.. there's a reason they are "ruins".. Centuries of shaking has contributed a LOT to their condition today..

Any place on earth that has HAD a quake, is always susceptible to another one..anytime..:( (and many places that have not had one ....yet)