NOAA: Eighth warmest winter on record, this summer may be a hot one

[RedEarth]

NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center reported :

Based on preliminary data, the globally averaged combined land and sea surface temperature was … the eighth warmest for boreal winter (December-February) and the January-February year-to-date period.

The rest of the year, however, appears poised to be back on the very warm side. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center released today its monthly ENSO discussion and forecast, which concludes:


Synopsis: A transition to ENSO-neutral conditions is expected during April 2009.
Atmospheric and oceanic conditions during March 2009 continued to reflect weak La Niña conditions. The monthly sea surface temperatures (SST) remain below-average across parts of the eastcentral and eastern Pacific Ocean. The Niño-3.4 SST index value persisted near −0.5°C during the month. Negative subsurface oceanic heat content anomalies (average temperatures in the upper 300m of the ocean, weakened further across the eastern half of the equatorial Pacific Ocean….

Collectively, these oceanic and atmospheric anomalies are consistent with a weakening La Niña.
A majority of model forecasts for the Niño-3.4 region show that once ENSO-neutral conditions are reached, it will continue through the remainder of 2009.

If indeed most of the rest of the year is ENSO-neutral, then that will end a major factor masking the overall warming trend. A couple of models are showing that we might even end up with a weak El Niño by summer, which would probably take us close to record hot temperatures again.

http://climateprogress.org/2009/04/09/ncdc-noaa-enso-la-nina-el-nino-global-warmin/

[Lyric]

1. This might be true elsewhere in the world, but not in my area.

We had a freezing winter that lasted forever--hell, we had snow on the ground just two days ago, and I can't recall that EVER happening this far into spring in Morgantown.

I'm guessing that locally, we're going to see a cold, rainy, miserable mud-hell of a "summer."

[RedEarth]

2. That's why it's called "global" warming

[Lyric]

8. Ya don't say?

I was merely commenting on the fact that the effect of global warming HERE is to make things colder than usual.

I am perfectly aware of how global warming works.

[ThomWV]

3. We are just finishing up one of the longest continuously cold and snow covered winters I've seen

Since I've lived here, which is 33 years. We had snow on the ground nearly every day from weeks before Thanksgiving until yesterday.

[Lyric]

9. Exactly.

It stinks that our share of global warming appears to be an increase in snow and cold. :(

I guess it's not such an awful tragedy that Cheat Lake has been drained after all. Looks like we won't have much in the way of swimming weather this summer anyway.

[goddess40]

11. You must live in Wisconsin nt

[MineralMan]

4. I don't understand why people cannot comprehend that their

local weather has nothing to do with global climate. Why is that such a difficult concept for so many people?

It was pretty cold here in Minnesota, too. That has nothing to do with the global climate. I can't say, right now, if the average temperature here in MN is higher or lower than normal. I don't keep annual records. When it's cold, I put my parka on.

Here you go, folks:

The local weather in your area has NOTHING to do with global climate. It is irrelevant.

[Renew Deal]

6. We get it.

I'm just saying that it wasn't warm here.

[Lyric]

10. Really? What "people" might that be?

Local weather has nothing to do with global climate, but global climate has a LOT to do with local weather. Global warming is changing the weather patterns everywhere--warm places are getting cooler, dry places are getting wetter, and vice-versa. This is not good news for the Earth or her inhabitants.

Commenting on local weather is not synonymous with not understanding global warming. On the contrary, acknowledging that things are DIFFERENT than they should be is a key indicator that global warming is becoming a serious threat. Small differences now can equal enormous problems later.

I can only hope you didn't intend to treat your fellow DU'ers as if they're blithering idiots for mentioning the ways that global climate change is affecting their own locales.

[Renew Deal]

5. Wasn't that warm in NY.

It's been cold here since November. I'd say colder than average most day. We didn't get a ton of snow, but it's been cold.

[WI_DEM]

7. Where I live it wasn't so warm, not as much snow as last year, but it was below average

in temps, and still is, I think.

[Canuckistanian]

12. Very mild winter here in Ottawa, overall

In the whole month of March, we only had a few centimetres of snow. I bought a new snowblower, but only used it 3 times.

NO major storms and the "cold snaps" of January/February only lasted a few days, not a week or more.

And we were only heating our house with two oil-filled electric radiators with the occasional burning of wood in the downstairs stove.

If every winter was like this one, I wouldn't complain.