For those who understand ..... what's going on with the economic happy talk?

[Stinky The Clown]

The punditocracy seems to have new marching orders and a new set of talking points. The theme is: "Happy Days Are (almost) Here Again".

Today, my local noozradio was all over a local housing boomlet. Happy talk about low interest rates and cheap house prices. More happy talk about all the refis happening. (Wasn't this part of the bust???)

Talk of a turnaround by September (or October, or November, depending on who might be talking). Job losses, they say, are leveling off, preparatory to reversing.

Wall Street's on a roll.

Wells Fargo made a $3B profit last quarter.

Not just the financial pundits, but also administration insiders.



So ..... what do you think?

Smoke up our asses?
Whistling past the grave yard?
Happy Talk makes Happy People?

Something else ...... ?




I really am not that economically savy to know what to think.

:shrug:

[Donnachaidh]

1. blowing smoke out their asses while whistling past a graveyard, I'd say.

With the impending protests on both the right and left, the word to the talking heads is "Don't Worry, Be Happy"....

[emilyg]

29. I'm worried and sure as hell not happy.

[leftstreet]

2. It means they hope we won't figure out there was never any crisis

Just sit back and visualize a good economy

[Possumpoint]

3. My Opinion

Happy Talk makes Happy People. I think that there are more shoes about to fall. We'll see.

[dixiegrrrrl]

4. Consider the source. Have they ever lied to you before???

Hmmmmm?

Yeah, I heard Obama telling people what great time it was to re-finance.
Exactly who would take that risk on the lender or the borrower side is beyond me.
If he wants ME to do any spending, he can give ME some of the money he is throwing around to
the Big Banks, the hedge funds, and rest of the crew that created this mess.

[scarletwoman]

7. "If he wants ME to do any spending, he can give ME some of the money..." EXACTLY!

I couldn't believe it when I heard Obama urging people to refinance! Like, ARE YOU FUCKING KIDDING ME?!?!?!?

Geeze, he sounds like Greenspan. Honestly, how stupid do they think we are?

Sorry, fool me once... etc.

Obviously, they think we're pretty damn stupid. I think it's time we showed them otherwise.

We need GOOD JOBS with GOOD WAGES. We DON'T need MORE FUCKING DEBT!!!!

:mad:

sw

[dmallind]

23. refinancing is an excellent idea

Mortgage rates have not been lower in decades. Anyone who has vaguely decent credit and is paying more than 5.75% or so would be silly not to refi and lower their payments. What on earth is wrong with suggesting it? Since when is refinancing per se taking on more debt?

[Donnachaidh]

32. kinda hard to re-finance if you DON'T HAVE A JOB. n/t

[dmallind]

36. Which of course the vast majority do in fact have.

Even DU has not reached the paranoid lunacy of trying to claim 50%+ unemployment yet.

[Mike 03]

15. So you don't think people who live beyond their means bear any responsibility?

You think the solution is to give you money. And that money is coming from...who?

Just trying to synthesize your logic.

[dixiegrrrrl]

37. You mis-read my comments.

Others did not.

[glowing]

5. I think they are trying to get those with some money to start spending again

and for richie- riches to invest in the stock market again. We all know the reality... its shitty. Jobs are scarce, foreclosures still high and sitting there, c.c. companies doing whatever they wish with fees and rates... reality is that its all still shit.

[Fire1]

19. Could not have said it better myself! On Point! eom.

[mix]

6. a research based assessment (not good):

http://www.voxeu.org/index.php?q=node/3421

we have to look at the global picture in other words to understand the relative state of the US economy

[notesdev]

8. Trying to pull suckers into the market

before it tanks once again

[DJ13]

9. I think its a tactic to try and calm down the masses

The so called "populist rage" was getting too close to the boiling point, causing the elites to get nervous.

[sarcasmo]

27. Bingo, They don't want the sheep getting any more riled up.

[Myrina]

46. Flashback: "I'm the only thing between you and the pitchforks"

.... So yes, Prez O is definitely whistling past the graveyard and trying to placate folks back into their 'American Idol' stupor, on behalf of the mighty .005% of the uber-class who should have already been drawn and quartered in the public square.

[amborin]

10. good ny times article today and yesterday

i don't presume to know, but....

the credit/liquidity crisis/freeze has eased somewhat....so businesses are able to borrow again, and resume their operations, to some extent....

in some areas of the country that were very hard hit with mortgage foreclosures, there is a surge of new buying of bank-auctioned properties and other types of foreclosed properties....in california, e.g., there are new buyers stepping in with the super low mortgage rates and super low sales prices (due to most of the properties being bank sales/short sales, etc....) so this is leading some to think that, in some markets, we *may* be starting to see a "bottom" of the market (but maybe not also)

some stores...such as wallmart, have seen an increase in same-store sales.....some of these sales have not just been crucial items like food, but non-essentials such as home furnishings, bedding, etc....suggesting both that people are spending time at home now and also that at least these shoppers have some discretionary spending $$$

but---most same store sales for March were terrible, some worse than February, so consumer confidence is still bad

and there is still a contraction in manufacturing, etc......

leading many to say that the optimistic talk is folly and we are only seeing a bear market soon to go bust again.....

in any case, unemployment will rise to over 10% nationwide before this is all over, in 2010 or later, since even when other parts of the econ recover, unemployment rises since it's a 'lagging indicator'

ps: but farm exports and prices have plummeted....

we still have a large threat of deflation

we'll prolly need another big stimulus package soon

nowhere near being out of the woods

[TwixVoy]

11. Sure fire sign we are being LIED to

When Citi and BofA come out saying they don't need bailout money anymore.

BULL SHIT. There is NO MATHEMATICAL WAY they could have gone from being BILLIONS in the red (and needing a hand out) to being "just fine" two months later.

The moment both of these banks put out this news I knew we were being manipulated. To what end? My guess is they are attempting to delay things as long as possible. Kind of like using a bucket to bail out water on the Titanic.

[Fire1]

21. They didn't want bailout money when they found out from

the President and the finance committee that 'stipulations' would accompany those loans. They did not want ANY government oversight and wanted even less accountability.

[notesdev]

12. In plain terms

you're being lied to... again.

What else did you expect? Hope? Change?

[roamer65]

13. GDP contraction does not always follow a continuous, downward path.

In 1930, there was a small upward motion in GDP after the panic in 1929...then it fell drastically after that time.

The 1980-1982 double dip recession followed a similar path.

By the end of this year, we should know what path we are exactly following. I have told many people to refrain from large purchases until the end of the year.

My opinion is that we are experiencing the "double dip false stabilization" before the next large step downward in GDP and I am structuring my finances accordingly.

...AND stay away from the stock market right now unless you can afford to lose your money. This is very definitely a bear market rally.

[Mike 03]

14. Two things, I think.

1. There are truly investors and pundits who want to be optimistic, and this is their chance.

2. More troublesome, there are people who want to make Obama, Geithner and Bernanke look like fools. They fully understand that the economic crisis is in flux, and they know that if they prop up our expectations, and the economy fails again, it will look like Obama's fault.

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

16. IMO, actual economic recovery.

As much as the Obama haters are afraid of it, this is what actual economic recovery looks like.

[Mike 03]

17. He's doing a great job, but we're not there yet.

That is almost cruel to throw the responsibility on him right now.

He can't save the entire fucking planet.

We all have to help out and face reality. There are many more shoes left to drop.

[JackRiddler]

18. Yeah, that's right: If you don't believe this stuff, it's because you hate Obama.

Like an echo from the RW talking points of 2002!

[roamer65]

20. I remember the recoveries in 1976 and 1984.

Doesn't feel at all like them. We haven't hit bottom yet, IMHO.

...and don't paint us as Obama haters. I support Obama, but I realize the shit sandwich that has been handed to him.
The same type shit sandwich that was handed to our present governor of Michigan, Jennifer Granholm, by the useless, fat piece of shit rethug that was in office before her.

[Deja Q]

45. How was it 'handed to him'? He still felt the need to run for office despite it all.

The same is said to ANY political candidate who runs for office... and wins.

He believed he could sort out the problems, which is why he ran. That or he's power hungry or in bed with lobbyists or any other stereotype that can be attributed to a politician...

I think he's realized things are worse off than what first seemed to be the case, however... And who needs experience? Some people can get involved early on and do what they think is right or what they're paid to do.

[Fire1]

24. I didn't know 'actual recovery' included double digit

unemployment.

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

25. Unemployment is a lagging indicator.

You'd first see recovery in the leading indicators. Stock markets. Factory orders. Home sales.

And, guess what, that's happening.

As far as unemployment, you'd expect to see a big decline in new unemployment filings, before you'd see new job creation. Oh, and we're seeing that too.

I know good economic news is tough for the Obama haters to swallow.

Oh well. Fuck 'em.

[Donnachaidh]

34. lockstep much?

Calling people who disagree *haters* is a freeper tactic.

[nilram]

22. check out this thread

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=114x62996

An uptick from the stimulus packages, then a long slow recover with persistent unemployment... Makes sense to me.

[roamer65]

26. Yup. L-shaped "recovery" like Roubini predicts.

It will remain L-shaped until the gov't nationalizes the zombie banks and cleans them up.

[stillcool]

28. I think they're all weatherman..

trying to predict the forecast for next month. It's either going to be sunny or cloudy. Take your pick.

[lumberjack_jeff]

30. Pump and dump, baby.

Fine with me, I have a piece of property and some other crap that I must unload.

To me, cash is king.

[anaxarchos]

31. There are two economies...

The Stock Market may have hit bottom and recovered a bit, the credit markets are a little looser and the banks are starting to feel "confident" again. All of this is controversial but might be true.

Meanwhile, unemployment will be much higher than previously predicted, will last much longer, there is no prospect of a "real" recovery until 2010 and that "real recovery" will be much flatter than previously forecast. None of this is controversial.

Finally, World GDP went down for the first time in recorded history. Nobody has the slightest clue what that means.

[spanone]

33. positive thinking, positive results

[MrMickeysMom]

35. This is what I think, Stinky...

I caught Obama carefully trying to point out what seemed to be encouraging words, mixed with, "if we hold steady"... trying to be, as they say, cautiously optimistic.

Then, I heard/saw what is supposed to pass for our mainstream media report, spin, with further analysis, ad nauseum, lather, rinse, repeat.

Save for some shows like Rachel Maddow, I honestly don't think we have much of a press, and that's where the Happy Talk makes Happy People spin.

[Missy Vixen]

38. We were at Costco yesterday

I'm not an economist, but we saw it all falling apart while watching carts go out of Costco with little more than food items starting in March of '08. There were also only a few items at a time.

We're now seeing the carts being piled high again. It's still primarily food items, but we're seeing full carts. In other words, people are spending money.

IMHO, YMMV.

[SahaleArm]

44. Costco sales are down 5%.

http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE5381BV20090409">Costco March same-store sales down

Retailers are not doing well.

[Missy Vixen]

48. It's now April

We live in one of the more affluent areas of the country that's been hit hard by layoffs.

If people are spending again at Costco, it's not a bad sign.

[Deja Q]

39. Money.cnn had a fun slant; the stocks are leveling but not the jobs.

Or was it MSN?

[Cessna Invesco Palin]

40. Contrary to popular belief, not everybody is poor, destitute, and eating dirt.

The media (as always) reacts to any positive or negative twitch like a bipolar child on a sugar rush. So the media is still retarded and incapable of seeing anything other than total gloom or total awesome.

As for the administration insiders, I think they're trying to walk a fine line between being too down (and therefore feeding the fear) and being too up (and therefore heightening expectations beyond what is reasonably possible.) This is difficult considering the bipolar nature of the media.

[The Straight Story]

41. Talking heads buying up cheap stocks, want them to go up

So they spread good news to boost confidence :)

[Cessna Invesco Palin]

42. Delete. Dupe.

WTF @ my browser.

[rampart]

43. there ya go again

its morning in america and everybody needs to show optimism and confidence & etc

[SahaleArm]

47. The recovery is being led by the Banks

The big 4 banks (JPM, C, WFC, BAC) are up http://www.google.com/finance?chdnp=1&chdd=1&chds=1&chdv=1&chvs=maximized&chdeh=1&chdet=1239477228348&chddm=9482&cmpto=NYSE:JPM;NYSE:WFC;NYSE:C&cmptzos=-18000;-18000;-18000&q=NYSE:BAC&ntsp=0">100-200% since the March lows.

Be weary when banks are more expensive on a P/E ratio than Microsoft and P&G. Earnings season just started with Alcoa reporting a loss of http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2009/04/09/alcoa-leads-off-with-a-strikeout.aspx">$479 Million; last year they reported positive earnings of $303M. Stocks go up when companies make money or are on track to make more money. The current run up feels like betting on Google at $700.