Why the "doom and gloomers" will NOT shut up and will NOT back down.

[Pale Blue Dot]

Yesterday somebody on DU, in lieu of mounting an argument, told me that I was "obsessed" with bad economic news. And yes, upon reflection, I am. I read 7 different economic blogs daily as well as the Stock Market Watch thread in LBN and the Economics forum here on DU. I wanted to be up front about that right from the beginning, both as a mea culpa and as a way of saying that my opinions about the economy are not uninformed. That doesn't mean I'm right, of course, but I do know what I'm talking about. Also, I want to say that I have ABSOLUTELY NOTHING to gain if the economy fails and everything to lose - so I am not "routing" for a failure. Quite the opposite, in fact.

The reasons why I (and many others) think the economy is doomed are complex but can be boiled down to one concept: debt. Our national, state and local, corporate and personal debt are WAY more (even adjusted for inflation) than they've ever been before. There is only so long that you can continue to borrow money before you have to pay it back. The loan sharks are coming for us, and it's not going to be pretty. This is I was against Obama's stimulus package: by borrowing MORE money, he is only making the problem worse in the long run.

This is a massive oversimplification of the issues, and I encourage you to watch Chris Martenson's Crash Course for a much more detailed, data-driven analysis of what got us here and why it's going to get much, much worse.

A few other disclosures:

1. I have been on DU since right after 9/11. I was a moderator here for almost a year. I've run for my local school board (as a Democrat, of course). I volunteered for John Kerry's presidential campaign and Ned Lamont's Senate campaign in CT.

2. In the Obama/Clinton wars, I had a slight preference for Obama.

3. I don't believe that ANY Republican would be better than Obama in the White House.

So why can't I shut up about how wrong Obama and Geithner's plans are?



Well... what if I'm right?


Obama, in addition to promoting plans that don't address the core problems and, in fact, will make those problems worse, has made a couple of potentially damaging statements recently:

*3 weeks ago he told Americans that it was a good time to invest in stocks

*He has recently, several times, claimed that there are "signs of hope" in the economy.

These statements were misguided because right now nobody is blaming him for the state of the economy (rightly so). However, if things get worse (as they will) AFTER he's told people to buy stocks, after the massive stimulus and bailouts, and after he's told them things are getting better, Americans WILL begin to blame him. One needs only to look at history to understand why that is so.

And what have the Republicans done? They've positioned themselves as the anti-bailout, anti-stimulus party. They've promoted these phony-baloney teabag parties (which I think are incredibly stupid - we need to RAISE taxes right now, especially on the rich) to position themselves as the "party of the people", even though right now it seems like political suicide. In other words, they've positioned themselves perfectly if the economy collapses. You and I know that it's total bullshit, but if you think that the American people can't be fooled, then you haven't been paying attention for the past 30 years.

And once again, history from around the world shows us that economic turmoil, during which the right wing attempts to seize power, is bloody and repressive - AND, the right wing usually wins.

I would love to have a debate about the ISSUES. I would love to have someone watch the Chris Martenson videos and tell me why they're wrong - but nobody here ever does. Every time I mention the debt problem, the silence is deafening. It's as if people, deep down, know I'm right and simply can't bring themselves to believe it. We MUST confront this problem head on - without lies and without cognitive dissonance. We must act as if the future of this country, and of Democratic ideals, depends on it.

I, for one, will not shut up until we do.

[Deja Q]

1. Does 'economy' mean 'stocks' or 'jobs'?

I will reiterate, yet again, there's a lot President Obama has done that I unequivocally love.

I am worried about the jobs and the true strength of our economy, which resides in its workers. It is not unpatriotic for me to mention my fears.

[rfranklin]

7. The problem is that bank bailouts will not create jobs....

It has already become apparent that these efforts are like trying to save the Titanic from its ultimate fate. Meanwhile the banksters who are steering the ship think that they can keep the same course, as if nothing has changed.

[Deja Q]

10. True... but it keeps the banks up until more jobs are created.

A 'stop gap measure' I think the term is...

But, yes, without good paying jobs so workers can pay the banks, this mess will eventually and ultimately only get worse.

Trickle down is a failed philosophy.

The real economy has got to turn around within a couple years; not just stocks.

[cabluedem]

57. What jobs? Game over, man! Game over! You can count me out! nt

[JDPriestly]

92. A multi-billion dollar stop gap that will eventually stop the economy

dead in its tracks -- because of the burden of paying it back. To say nothing of the fact that the greedy folks who garnered the huge pay packages while wrecking the American economy are not being asked to disgorge one cent of their hoist. Obama needs to get some justice, not just some nice talk.

[Larry Ogg]

81. I can’t resist comparing the economy and the American sheoples way of life to the Titanic…

So how does this sound?

The ship of state and the economy; previously being piloted by robber barons, war mongers, economic elites, sycophants, kleptocrats and a sundry of other bipartisan pathologically inept cronies, has hit a (we didn’t see it coming) huge debt based iceberg / bursting economic bubble / financial reality and is rapidly sinking; and in lieu of running the ship aground and saving as many citizens as he can, Obama is hollering full steam ahead; but don’t worry he is very good at multitasking. In addition to exasperating the problem by creating a bigger debt based iceberg, he is 1) filling the life boats up with the robber barrens and economic elites that were mentioned above. 2) he is also sending his advisers (i.e. the same sycophants, and pathologically inept cronies that where just following the orders of the assholes now sitting all nice and comfy in the life boats.) down into the engine room to try and figure out how they can get the engines to run on sea water, and 3) he is telling the working / low class passengers that are going all hysterical from the pending doom, too believe in the illusion that everything is going to be just fine, because the war mongers are protecting us from the likes of Al-Qaida, illegal Mexicans / immigrants, pirates and other boogie men…

Of course my analogy could be all wrong, and I am certainly glad that John McArmageddon isn’t in the White House, but the fact that the Obama’s just got a water dog aught to tell ya something… :rofl:

Edited to insert other boogie men.

[rfranklin]

2. I agree, we need radical thinking and radical action or....

we will be doomed to another 20 year depression, maybe even worse than the last one. And that will empower the right wing demagogues and their dumb, self-sabotaging followers to create even more havoc.

[truedelphi]

111. What you say, in a nutshell, is probably right.

People here don't get that encouraging OBAMA TO PURSUE THE wrong POLICIES WILL ABSOLUTELY LIMIT HIS POWER AS PRESIDENT.

And the very second the RW gets most of our country on their side, due to further downturns in the economy, any policies he has put in place will be thrown out.

We will see his stem cell researchpolicy thrown out the door.

We will see his actions regarding GITMO thrown out the door.

We need to WAKE HIM up if we want him to stay in power.

[Uben]

3. To ease your mind....

....try comparing our debt to GDP ratio to that of other nations. You will find there are others much worse off than we are and their economies have not collapsed. Yes, we have an incredible amount of debt to repay, but we are not alone....not by a long shot.

[Pale Blue Dot]

12. That does not make me feel better at all.

I urge you to check out the Crash Course series of videos referenced in the OP.

[Statistical]

15. Debt as % of GDP is the only way to measure debt.

Not saying our debt is out of control but you should be realistic.

How bad is it to be in debt $10,000.

Well if you make $250,000 a year it isn't that bad.
If you make $20,000 then it is a problem.

The bigger problem IMHO is not the amount of the debt it is our "relationship with debt"

Being $11T in debt isn't so bad if:
1) we accepted long term taxes need to go up and spending needs to go down to pay it off.
2) we were running surpluses to pay it down.
3) we built larger surpluses in good years so we can deficit spend in the bad years.
4) we planned a budget and a 20 year timeline to cut debt in half.

[Pale Blue Dot]

16. $11T is ONLY our Federal debt.

It does not include personal, state and local, and corporate debt, Adding those in brings the total much higher.

Even the Federal debt number does not include our future obligations to Social Security and Medicare (at a time when the baby boom generation is retiring).

Add all of these numbers up and you're in the range of $60T.

Again, check out the video series.

[Hannah Bell]

56. See post 55.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=389&topic_id=5465125&mesg_id=5467710

I will certainly check out the video. I encourage you to check your ideas against alternative arguments as well. It's illegitimate to total internal debt additively. There's no useful information in that exercise; the only use is to mislead.

[Dr.Phool]

58. And if you read "Bad Money" by Kevin Phillips,

You'll see how the GDP numbers have slowly changed over the years to present a far rosier picture than things actually are.

He had a good article a year ago in Harpers that presented the same findings.

[cosmicdot]

115. is this the Harpers' article?

Numbers racket: Why the economy is worse than we know

May 2008

http://harpers.org/archive/2008/05/0082023


K&R

[RaleighNCDUer]

109. The baby boom generation retiring is a bugaboo.

Because at the same time we are retiring, we are also DYING.

Most people work until they retire at @65. Most people die between 70 and 80. So we are talking about a bubble of 5-10 years of retirement, which will not actually happen for great numbers of us because the current economy has wiped out our potential retirement funds - I, for one, expect to work till I'm 70, which means another 13 years of paying SS taxes. I also do not expect to live past 73 - which is one year longer than any male in my family has ever lived. So, after 57 years of paying into the system, I collect for 3 years.

And I am a middle-boomer. The early boomers are already retiring, and dying. Just check the obits and see for yourself.

[Extend a Hand]

35. the marginal productivity of debt

In the article below the author makes some persuasive arguments that the debt-to-gdp is not the best way to measure debt

http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/fekete/2009/0330.html

Watching the wrong ratio

The key to understanding the problem is the marginal productivity of debt, a concept curiously missing from the vocabulary of mainstream economics. Keynesians take comfort in the fact that total debt as a percentage of total GDP is safely below 100 in the United States while it is 100 and perhaps even more in some other countries. However, the significant ratio to watch is additional debt to additional GDP, or the amount of GDP contributed by the creation of $1 in new debt. It is this ratio that determines the quality of debt. Indeed, the higher the ratio, the more successful entrepreneurs are in increasing productivity, which is the only valid justification for going into debt in the first place.

Conversely, a serious fall in that ratio is a danger sign that the quality of debt is deteriorating, and contracting additional debt has no economic justification. The volume of debt is rising faster than national income, and capital supporting production is eroding fast. If, as in the worst-case scenario, the ratio falls into negative territory, the message is that the economy is on a collision course and crash in imminent. Not only does more debt add nothing to the GDP, in fact, it causes economic contraction, including greater unemployment. The country is eating the seed corn with the result that accumulated capital may be gone before you know it. Immediate action is absolutely necessary to stop the hemorrhage, or the patient will bleed to death.

Keynesians are watching the wrong ratio, that of debt-to-GDP. No wonder they constantly go astray as they miss one danger signal after another. They are sailing in the dark with the aid of the wrong navigational equipment. They are administering the wrong medicine. Their ambulance is unable to diagnose internal hemorrhage that must be stopped lest the patient be dead upon arrival.

[mbperrin]

71. GDP is a terrible way to measure debt load.

In your own example, you use INCOME to compare personal debt to see if you have a problem. Right.

But GDP is not income. It is a "magic number" that includes unsold merchandise, claimed values rather than actual sold prices, no allowance for used goods or rentals.

Income is income. In the case of governments, taxes collected. Compare those numbers, and you'll see a more accurate picture of our actual debt. Once you include unfunded future liabilities, your hair may be a bit grayer.

[Hannah Bell]

40. I encourage you to consider information beyond your personal biases (don't mean that as a slam,

everyone should do the same, including me!)


Is China Threatening to Stop "Manipulating" Its Currency?

The NYT reports that China has been buying up fewer dollars in recent months to hold as reserves. It suggests that this may be due to growing concern about the potential loss in value on its dollar holdings.

It is worth noting that China must buy up dollars in order to keep down the value of its currency against the dollar. China has maintained a managed exchange rate where the value of the yuan is below the market rate. This reduces the cost of China's imports to people in the United States. This managed exchange rate is exactly what the U.S. government has complained about for years as currency "manipulation."

If China decided to stop buying up dollars for whatever reason, then it would mean that China's currency would rise against the dollar. Ostensibly, this is what U.S. government wants to see happen. It is not something that should provoke fear.

--Dean Baker

http://www.prospect.org/csnc/blogs/beat_the_press_archive?month=04&year=2009&base_name=is_china_threatening_to_stop_m

[JDPriestly]

93. Please note that the U.S., like China, was a creditor nation at

the beginning of the Great Depression. That made it a lot easier for us to pull ourselves out of our financial problems. That and the abundance of natural resources within our borders made it possible for us to gear up to fight WWII.

We are not so well situated today. Therefore, we cannot just walk down the same path that we followed in the 1930s.

Obama needs an economic team that is more realistic and less wedded to Wall Street to cut a new path at this time. He needs to make changes in his staff and he needs to make them very soon. This same old, same old Clinton stuff is going to bring his entire administration and the Democratic Party down.

[TheWatcher]

48. To unease your mind....

The Unfunded Debt Liability of The United States is $66 Trillion Dollars....

The GDP of THE PLANET is $65 Trillion.

Bail That Out.....

And by all means, tell me how to fix JPM's Derrivatives book, which last time I looked, which was about three years ago, was $36 trillion.

The past few trading days, banks have literally reported "Fantasy Profits."

Wells Fargo reports "Record Profits", but that was based on "Expectations, and "Forecasts", not based on any real numbers.

then the next day we hear how badly they did in the "Stress tests" and how they need $50 Billion in more funding to pay back Loan Losses

Wells Fargo May Need $50 Billion in Capital, KBW Says (Update1)

By Ari Levy

April 13 (Bloomberg) -- Wells Fargo & Co., the second- biggest U.S. home lender, may need $50 billion to pay back the federal government and cover loan losses as the economic slump deepens, according to KBW Inc.’s Frederick Cannon.

KBW expects $120 billion of “stress” losses at Wells Fargo, assuming the recession continues through the first quarter of 2010 and unemployment reaches 12 percent, Cannon wrote today in a report. The San Francisco-based bank may need to raise $25 billion on top of the $25 billion it owes the U.S. Treasury for the industry bailout plan, he wrote.

First-quarter net income rose 50 percent to about $3 billion, Wells Fargo said last week in announcing preliminary results that topped the most optimistic Wall Street estimates and sparked a 32 percent jump in the stock. The bank attributed the profit to a surge in mortgage originations and revenue from Wachovia Corp., acquired in December. Full results are scheduled for April 22.

“Details were scarce and we believe that much of the positive news in the preliminary results had to do with merger accounting, revised accounting standards and mortgage default moratoriums, rather than underlying trends,” wrote Cannon, who downgraded the shares to “underperform” from “market perform.” “We expect earnings and capital to be under pressure due to continued economic weakness.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=avymhMJShuAs

Goldman flat out LIED about their earnings and reported fraudulent numbers by saying the month of December did not exist.

Their surprise earnings bullshit was actually a LOSS had they reported it correctly ($1.24 vs $1.66)

If you TRULY expect us to believe the banks are all posting record profits after being all but insolvent and on the edge of Nationalization 6 weeks ago, then maybe you could allow some of us to come over and play on the Bridge in your back yard that you got sold by buying into that notion.

WE. ARE. BEING. LIED. TO.

[Hannah Bell]

55. "Unfunded Debt Liability" is bogus. It includes things like future Social Security payments.

It's bogus because those aren't "debt," anymore than the future cost of your hospital care is.

That bogus number also combines all private, corporate, & public debt, an illegitimate mix because "the United States" doesn't owe all that debt; different entities owe it, some to each other (cancelling out internally).

In the same way, totalling up all the bankster debt individually rather than working out the net figures is also illegitimate. If Goldman owes Morgan $1 mill, & Morgan owes Wells Fargo 1 mill, & Wells owes Goldman 1 mill, what's the net debt?

Zero.

We're certainly being lied to, but some of the lying is done by the folks spreading those bogus numbers. They have an agenda, which is to get you to accept lower wages, a poorer social net, & a lower standard of living.

They seem to be succeeding.

[Roadcyclist]

68. Again another misunderstanding of the debt crisis

future obligations of the government do not factor into our $60 trillion dollar public and private debt today. Read the Federal Reserve flow of funds account. It is money we owe today. Game's up and both Democrats and Republicans in Washington have abandoned ideals we hold dear by manipulating the economy for personal gain. Now we all suffer.

[TheWatcher]

83. It isn't bogus, and you need to wake up to that fact.

Do some research.

It will do you some good.

I'm done trying to explain it.

You can play around with these explanations all you want. It doesn't matter.

But keep believing in what the Banks tell you, and that none of this exists. I notice you totally ignored the rest of the post.

From the edge Nationalization and Bankruptcy to Record Profits in 6 weeks. Suuuuuuuuuuuuuuure.

We are being lied to. It's that simple.

Wake up.

[kristopher]

101. Hannah Bell is one of the most astute and clued-in posters on DU

I've limited experience with economics, so I'm not judging the arguments involved. What I've seen from HB in the past, however, is someone that vigorously pursues all lines of inquiry in a sincere effort to not get caught in a bias trap. That sort of research takes great effort and usually, specialized training to do well.

You shouldn't dismiss the information and should instead use it in an attempt to prove your currently held beliefs wrong. That is the way critical thinking works. When you go to a series of "favorite blogs" daily, chances are you do so because you are comfortable with the views expressed there. That doesn't mean you like their conclusions, but that you share many of the values and beliefs that underpin the conclusion. Those values and beliefs are a huge component of what conclusion emerges for any given problem.

Back up, take a breath and ask for a reading list - them read it.

FWIW.

[Hannah Bell]

114. I do?

http://www.econstats.com/weo/V029.htm


I'm quite awake, & quite aware of being lied to. There are many factions lying, & many competing agendas".

"The Grandfather Report" isn't a reliable source of information.

[Roadcyclist]

67. You are wrong on other countries debt to GDP rations being higher

That is their public debt to GDP ratios. Our total debt to GDP ratio is a new record for mankind that wins a spot on The Price is Right. With 50% of global wealth now destroyed, it effectively doubles the burden of the debt load. There are no new jobs and won't be any new jobs because there is no demand for capital in the American economy. And, whether anyone wants to listen, I can explain why. And, Bill Clinton is the primary reason. Democrats are too beholden to a party that has screwed us all. Democratic ideals are lip service in Washington.

[Hannah Bell]

113. how so?

http://www.econstats.com/weo/V029.htm

[Roadcyclist]

131. Why don't you answer my question

There is nothing on econstats that compares all public, private and corporate debt higher than in the US.

[Hannah Bell]

132. can't read, either.

"Percent of GDP Net debt comprises the stock (at year-end) of all government gross liabilities (both to residents and nonresidents) minus all government assets (domestic as well as foreign).

To avoid double counting, the data are based on a consolidated account (eliminating liabilities and assets between components of the government, such as budgetary units and social security funds). General government should reflect a consolidated account of central government plus state, provincial, or local governments. Debt data are not always comparable across countries."



& since your concern is "US gov't debt" there's no need to include "corporate" debt.

[emilyg]

105. At this point - other nations don't interest me.

[Hannah Bell]

112. Comparison is one of the ways we decide what's true & what's not.

Excluding contradictory evidence ensures you will always be "right".

[Uzybone]

4. What if you are wrong?

I hope you are, sounds like you hope you are.

I really do not know enough about economics (certainly no more than Obama, Volker, Geithner, Summers, Krugman , Stiglitz et al) to say who is right and who is wrong. On this issue I hope you are dead wrong.

As for the republicans, the economy has already collapsed, and they were in charge when it happened. The RW always finds a way to get back in power, but it usually isn't because of economic issues. They always lose those arguments.

[Warpy]

5. People just want to feel safe

and confronting the disaster an economy based on debt has brought us will make them feel anything but safe.

The fact is that we will likely keep seeing layoffs continue and even increase. It doesn't matter if banks are willing to lend yet because people who are terrified of losing their jobs are not going to take on any more debt.

They're also saving instead of paying off the debt they have, knowing that paid off debt won't help them if disaster strikes but money in the bank will.

Wages are still depressed, our manufacturing base is still largely gone, and solutions to both those problems are months if not years away. Only when things get truly desperate is the government finally allowed to do what needs to be done: support wages while providing jobs to build new infrastructure.

We're still teetering at the brink of an abyss. Our institutions might have been saved, but unless the larger problems in the economy are addressed, we will continue to slide down.

[TheWatcher]

49. Our "Institutions" are in the process of saving themselves at our expense and expecting us to pay

for it, and transferring what is left of our wealth and treasure to themselves.

I wish it were not true either, I wish it did not exist as so many on DU claim, but I cannot swallow the lies and propaganda we are being told.

The larger problems of the economy are not going to BE solved, at least not by TPTB.

I am afraid we are on our OWN.

Most do not realize that yet, but I cannot imagine how it can be hidden too much longer.

Criminals are in control.

It's really that simple.

[Warpy]

72. At this point, yes

but it's not going to last. What they've done over the last 40 years is kill the goose that laid the golden eggs, the consumer market. No matter what the numbers look like at the top, the real wealth is no longer going to increase, nor has it increased for the past couple of decades. They're only showing each other their numbers, kind of like middle school boys comparing length.

We've reached the tipping point as far as job loss versus the willingness to assume debt goes. What's left is the tipping point when enough of us have lost our livelihoods to start hitting the streets and telling TPTB about it. That's when change is forced and not before.

Sadly, we're going to get there.

[KG]

6. those that bemoan the 'gloom and doomers' still have a job, apparently

mine dissappeared with the housing crash, and may not return for a couple years.

gloom and doom is staring me right in the face.

[GoesTo11]

8. Define doomed

Does the economy being doomed mean the US goes bankrupt? Does it mean a drop in GDP of x% - 40% or some such large number? Does it mean a drop in the stock market of over 90%? What does collapse mean?

Of course shit is hitting the fan, but how bad do you think it will be? Quantify so I'll get what you mean.

I think real GDP is unlikely to drop by more than 25%. The stock markets are unlikely to drop more than another 50%, and the US is unlikely to go bankrupt in the next 5 years.

[redqueen]

108. Excellent questions. (nt)

[girl gone mad]

9. Right there with you.

I've received the same criticisms on DU lately. (ETA: DUers have mostly been supportive, though)

I was blogging the global RE and equities bubble for years. I have to say that I regret not being more outspoken about it here. The few times I brought it up, no one seemed to care and there were so many other important stories. At this point, I think that repairing the economy the right way is paramount.

I'm used to the "obsessed", "gloom and doomer", "permabear" insults by now. For years, I was a target of mortgage and banking insiders who had an interest in keeping the truth hidden or who were simply in complete denial.

[MannyGoldstein]

11. If An Elected Official Calls Themself A Democrat...

then you must not disagree. Those are simple ground rules, no?

[TheWatcher]

50. If an elected Official does not represent the interests of the people

Then it matters not WHAT party he or she is from.

I will not support them.

And neither should you.

[Leftist Agitator]

74. Holy Joe called himself a Democrat.

Until he didn't.

[Fovea]

13. And if you are wrong

You will be wrong in much the same way Hoover was wrong.

I believe that you have the right to disagree with Obama's policy.
I do too, just in the other direction.

*If* we can make a re-engineering of our energy usage.
*if* we can re imagine transportation.
And more importantly, hire our way back to a functional middle class...

And if we can summon the will to nationalize *just* consumer thrifts, we might eventually get some assets back.


I believe in Keynes. And while the debt load is going to be bad,
I think that the potential savings from new infrestructure will go a long way toward
reversing the hemmorage.

Failing that, I figure next year the DOW will hit 2000.

[RB TexLa]

14. Right or wrong, we have to talk down the economy. This will be the one issue in the 2010 elections

The administration has to lower expectations and we have to help with that.

[OhioChick]

17. Hear, Hear!

You've been here a little longer than I have, but it was the direction of the economy/jobs that led me to this forum. Keep in mind that Ohio never recovered from the past recessions, so I saw what was coming for the rest of the country. Those in Michigan probably saw this earlier on, as well. I post about layoffs/outsourcing/visa issues/free trade, etc.

(Actually, there have been many times that I had a LBN article...did a search and thought damn.....he beat me to it!) :)

I appreciate your posts. We need to see/hear what's going on economically here......good or bad. Job loss is phenomenal and only to worsen.

No Jobs = No Recovery.

Keep up the good work. It's much appreciated. :toast:

Quote: "We MUST confront this problem head on - without lies and without cognitive dissonance. We must act as if the future of this country, and of Democratic ideals, depends on it.

I, for one, will not shut up until we do."

:thumbsup: From a Lifelong Democrat Here!

[WeDidIt]

18. Buh Bye

<click>

[TheWatcher]

51. And that is the typical juvenile, snotty respnse that makes no sense, and is completely

counterproductive.

You obviously cannot refute what the OP said, so you spew out that.

All the same, the Rose-Colored bunnies.

You don't care about the truth, you care about PERCEPTION MANAGEMENT.

Feeling Good over Facing Reality.

Absolutely pathetic.

[Dr.Phool]

60. You might as well click me to.

[OhioChick]

89. Same here.

How naive.

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

19. Right, what we need to do in a bad recession is stop spending money.

Also, we should all go down to the banks and take out all our money and stuff it under our mattresses.

And we need to engage in trade wars with other countries. If we ratchet up out tariffs, we're sure to make lots of money.

Oh, and we need to return to bad soil conversation practices in the Midwest, particularly Oklahoma. Over graze the fields, that sort of thing.

And while we're at it, throw out all the polio vaccines. We don't need them and they're just a waste of money.

[Pale Blue Dot]

20. That's a whole heap o' strawmen you've got there.

Having a crow problem?

Why don't you watch the video referenced in the OP and then respond to the REAL arguments?

[Dr.Phool]

61. You've got money in the bank? Or to spend?

You sure heaped a whole pile of things into that post that PBD never said.

I can't say I blame him for being pessimistic about the economy. All last summer, when he had the time, he did a daily update in the Stock Market Watch thread, that listed all the layoffs around the country. In other words, he was actually looking at the numbers every day. And things are getting much worse now.

[Marrah_G]

21. Careful or you will get banned too.

[hunter]

22. Video of today's economy and how we got there... (2 minutes)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uQrC_C6SexI

The good news is we haven't exploded... yet.

If I was fixing the economy I'd increase taxes on the very wealthy, create a national single payer health plan, nationalize the student loan business and pay off the loans of certain people working in underserved communities (teachers, police, healthcare, etc.), and forgive the student loans of the unemployed and working poor; I'd nationalize all unstable employer retirement plans and carefully regulate the rest; I'd fund a wide range of infrastructure projects to decrease our dependence upon fossil fuels and reduce our impact on the natural environment; I'd slash the defense budget 90% and put everyone in those industries or in the military to work in infrastructure improvements and/or pay them to go to school; and lastly I'd have no patience with financial and industrial institutions that are "too big to fail." If in institution is too big to fail it would be nationalized.

Eventually people are going to figure this out on their own, that the wealthy and powerful of finance and industry do not represent the interests of the People, and then there will be change, but I'm afraid there's going to be a lot more pain and suffering among the non-wealthy before these oligarchs begin to fear the people.

"Prudence, indeed, will dictate that governments long established, should not be changed for light and transient causes; and, accordingly, all experience shown that mankind are more disposed to suffer while evils are sufferable than to right themselves by abolishing the forms to which they are accustomed. But, when a long train of abuses and usurpations, pursuing invariably the same object, evinces a design to reduce under absolute despotism, it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such government, and to provide new guards for their future security." --Thomas Jefferson: Declaration of Independence, 1776. ME 1:29, Papers 1:429

[Pale Blue Dot]

23. Kick because I won't shut up. nt

[Torn_Scorned_Ignored]

88. Kick, because you shouldn't shut up.

:hi:

[roamer65]

24. People do not like hearing the truth.

The economic truth is very grim right now.

[ChromeFoundry]

25. I agree...

and over 1/2 the population of this country refuses to take off their blinders.

[Pale Blue Dot]

26. It's more like 95%. nt

[ChromeFoundry]

28. True...

But, when 85% of the population believe they have above average intelligence, aim low and precede it with a "greater than"... :O)

[TheWatcher]

52. At some point they had better realize it matters not how far you bury your head in the sand

It will NOT change the reality of the circumstances around you.

[OhioChick]

29. You're absolutely right.

We have people living in garages right now because they lost their jobs and homes. There are no jobs out there. I heard on the local news the other night that so many kids rely on a school lunch because that's the only meal they get daily, many go to sleep hungry. People are dying from a lack of health care and medicine.

Yes, the economic truth is very grim right now.

[jwirr]

99. I even am in a position to envy people who are living in garages. I

have been trying to find a family garage that someone will let me remodel so I can live in my own home instead of with relatives.

[OhioChick]

129. ....

:hug:

[many a good man]

27. I've predicted three of last one depressions

And I was an Econ major, graduating in '88. I'm taking a wait and see approach from now on. I've long said "things hafta get worse before they get better." Worse is here and I'm hoping for systemic change but I ain't seeing it - yet.

[OwnedByFerrets]

30. The biggest problem this country faces....

IMHO is that we don't manufacture anything anymore. I keep hearing about "America always rebounds"....but when we rebounded earlier in the last century, we had mucho manufacturing to help those recoveries. We don't now. And when President Obama talks about the building of enviromentally friendly products, we (as a country) are already IMPORTING those things from other countries who have manufactured them there. We, as a country, should reinforce tariffs and raise taxes back to pre-reagan.

[Pale Blue Dot]

31. We're not only importing everything,

but we're borrowing money to do it.

[OhioChick]

33. You're right...

Blue collar jobs go to China and white collar...to India. With all of this "green talk", the technology can easily be outsourced to India and solar panels and such can be produced in China. What's left?

We need tariffs, close tax loopholes as a start.

[Dr.Phool]

62. And to make matters worse, 10 Blue Dogs joined every repuke....

And voted to raise the limit on the estate tax, and cut the rate by 10%.

One of them was my asshole Senator, Bill Nelson. Over the last 5 years, I've talked with this idiot several times, both in his office in DC and at town hall meetings.

Take my word for it, he doesn't have a clue. He's a veritable fountain of bad ideas.

[OwnedByFerrets]

70. Yes, that crap sucks big time.....but, they must care for their Masters

[flyarm]

95. DrPhool..I can attest to that!! And bring up the truth here and you get your nuts cut off!!

I posted yesterday about one of my former neighbors being a top exec of UBS and how he put in a $350,000 pool in the house in my neighborhood..and then just built a $4 million $$ home on the same river as Bon Jovi lives..and another 1 million $$ pool and at the new house..he also has a Multi million dollar home on an island in NJ and a Yacht sitting on his own dock..and this was a die hard republican..and he gave a shit load of money this time to Obama ..and i got nasty replies..

I want him in Jail as well as all those who work with him...AND ALL THE CROOKS WHO ROBBED THIS NATION BLIND..but instead they keep getting a free ride..by both parties..WITH OUR TAX DOLLARS..

My former neighborhood had all wall street seat holders..all rabid republicans..so much so that My hubby and I were the only dems in the neighborhood..and at election time during Clinton and Gore campaigns..they filled my yard with Dole and Bush signs ( at that time)..I mean filled my yard..as a joke of course..but it was not a funny joke to me..a Lifelong Dem..

but not to worry..the UBS guy is doing well...very well i would say..in fact...Under both parties..while people in this country are losing jobs with no chance of getting equal jobs for a very long time, if ever..

People are losing homes everywhere..and there is no end in sight and yet we are told this is change..change alright..middle America is getting killed..and yet there are people that are so willing to look the other way...and try to shut up those of us trying to help them!

Well I for one am getting damn sick and tired of trying to help people that chose to stay ignorant and who won't do shit to help themselves because they are so stuck on partisan bullshit..with leaders who don't give a rats ass if they can feed their families or keep a roof over their heads.

One of my favorite quotes is ..

Tact..the ability to see lighting before feeling the bolt...some here just refuse to open their eyes..

This administration, just like those before it, are up the asses of those who are screwing us all the most and who are killing the middle class..
Don't blame those of us who take the time to try to educate ..you are your own worst enemy when you ignore the warnings.

And like the OP..I will not shut up about what is going on right in front of your eyes...it is those who ignore it, that reap what they sow.


I have posted this before..

Who is this administration working with?? And what is going on now......

lets look shall we???????

do go read this ..it is worth your time..

http://emptywheel.firedoglake.com/2009/04/15/did-holder-know-about-the-significant-misconduct-when-doj-claimed-sovereign-immunity/#more-3945

Did Holder Know About the “Significant Misconduct” When DOJ Claimed Sovereign Immunity?
By: emptywheel Wednesday April 15, 2009 8:19 pm
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx



Kissinger

Kissinger..shortly after Obama took office , KISSINGER WAS SENT TO RUSSIA BY OBAMA TO REPRESENT HIS ADMINISTRATION..


lets take a simple look at Geithner and Summers shall we?????



Remarks by National Security Adviser Jones at 45th Munich Conference on Security Policy

Published February 8, 2009
Speaker: James L. Jones


U.S. National Security Adviser Jones ( edit to add: new advisor hired by Obama!!!!) gave these remarks at the 45th Munich Conference on Security Policy at the Hotel Bayerischer Hof on February 8, 2009.

"Thank you for that wonderful tribute to Henry Kissinger yesterday. Congratulations. As the most recent National Security Advisor of the United States, I take my daily orders from Dr. Kissinger, filtered down through General Brent Scowcroft and Sandy Berger, who is also here. We have a chain of command in the National Security Council that exists today.


Source: http://www.cfr.org/publication/18515/remar... ...

Now if that doesn't scare the ever loving crap out of you and if you are really a democrat with democratic values it damn well should scare the ever loving crap out of you!!!!!!!!!!
Remember Kissinger worked for NIXON,FORD,REAGAN,GHBUSH AND HE WAS ALMOST DAILY IN GWBUSH'S WHITE HOUSE GIVING ADVICE ON THE IRAQ WAR..

FOR THOSE YOUNG PEOPLE WHO KNOW LITTLE ABOUT KISSINGER..PLEASE TAKE THE TIME TO EDCUATE YOURSELF ON HIM..HIS NICKNAME IS.."THE BUTCHER OF CAMBODIA"..JUST FOR STARTERS!!

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx


Geithner..who worked for Kissinger and the CFR

Geithner..who's papa Peter F.Geithner was with the Ford Foundation and Obama's mom just happened to work with him!!

Any wonder why the GM CEO was made to step down..the very day that Ford announced it was opening a plant in Mexico..the znnouncement took place at the Pres of Mexico's palace..and do not miss the very fact that the CEO of Ford said : Mr Mullaly said: "We are convinced the geographic location as well as Mexico's highly qualified labour force and economic stability make this decision the right one for our business."

That would be 4,500 jobs Americans will not get!!


http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/742895...


Peter F. Geithner, is the director of the Asia program at the Ford Foundation in New York. During the early 1980s, Peter Geithner oversaw the Ford Foundation's microfinance programs in Indonesia being developed by S. Ann Dunham-Soetoro, President Barack Obama's mother, and they met in person at least once

Geithner's maternal grandfather, Charles F. Moore, was an adviser to President Dwight D. Eisenhower and served as a vice president of Ford Motor Company.


Posted by flyarm in General Discussion
Tue Mar 31st 2009, 03:37 PM
ahhh this ought to warm a few of the hearts of US Union workers!!


http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/742895...

Ford to open new plant in Mexico


US giant Ford is to invest $3bn (£1.5bn) in a new car plant in Mexico, the biggest investment in the country's manufacturing sector.

The move is a blow to American car workers who had hoped the factory would be built in the United States.

Ford has lost more than $15bn (£7.5bn) over the past two years and says the new facility is crucial to its future.

Mexican President Felipe Calderon hailed the announcement as a "turning point" for his country.

The new factory, and other changes to Ford's Mexican operations, are likely to create an estimated 4,500 jobs in Mexico, where car workers earn substantially less than their American counterparts.

Mr Calderon made the announcement with Ford president Alan Mullaly at the presidential compound in Mexico City on Friday. "We want Mexico to be an automotive country, one that is competitive and with the most advantages so that the worldwide automotive industry will establish itself here," Mr Calderon said.

Mr Mullaly said: "We are convinced the geographic location as well as Mexico's highly qualified labour force and economic stability make this decision the right one for our business."

.........................................
edit to add ...Bet those last lines were made to just give warm fuzzies to American auto workers..but just ignore that ...what do we all care about American workers, when we are all getting that lovely $17 dollar tax break a month!!
.........................................

hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm

TIMOTHY GEITHNER

Biography

Early life and education
Geithner was born in Brooklyn, New York.<2> He spent most of his childhood living outside the United States, including present-day Zimbabwe, Zambia, India and Thailand, where he completed high school at International School Bangkok.<3> He then attended Dartmouth College, graduating with a B.A. in government and Asian studies in 1983.<4> He earned an M.A. in international economics and East Asian studies from Johns Hopkins University's School of Advanced International Studies in 1985.<4><5> He has studied Chinese<4> and Japanese.<6>

Geithner's paternal grandfather, Paul Herman Geithner (1902–1972), emigrated with his parents from the German town of Zeulenroda to Philadelphia, Pennsylvania in 1908.<7> His father, Peter F. Geithner, is the director of the Asia program at the Ford Foundation in New York. During the early 1980s, Peter Geithner oversaw the Ford Foundation's microfinance programs in Indonesia being developed by S. Ann Dunham-Soetoro, President Barack Obama's mother, and they met in person at least once.<8> Timothy Geithner's mother, Deborah Moore Geithner, is a pianist and piano teacher in Larchmont, New York where his parents currently reside. Geithner's maternal grandfather, Charles F. Moore, was an adviser to President Dwight D. Eisenhower and served as a vice president of Ford Motor Company.

Early career

After completing his studies, Geithner worked for Kissinger and Associates in Washington, D.C., for three years and then joined the International Affairs division of the U.S. Treasury Department in 1988. He went on to serve as an attaché at the US Embassy in Tokyo. He was deputy assistant secretary for international monetary and financial policy (1995–1996), senior deputy assistant secretary for international affairs (1996-1997), assistant secretary for international affairs (1997–1998).<5>

He was Under Secretary of the Treasury for International Affairs (1998–2001) under Treasury Secretaries Robert Rubin and Lawrence Summers.<5> Summers was his mentor,<10><11> but other sources call him a Rubin protégé.<11><12><13>

In 2002 he left the Treasury to join the Council on Foreign Relations as a Senior Fellow in the International Economics department.<14> He was director of the Policy Development and Review Department (2001-2003) at the International Monetary Fund.<5>
In October 2003, he was named president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.<15> His salary in 2007 was $398,200.<16> Once at the New York Fed, he became Vice Chairman of the Federal Open Market Committee component. In 2006, he also became a member of the Washington-based financial advisory body, the Group of Thirty.<17>

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Report: AIG bailout money behind banks' recent profitability

http://blogs.usatoday.com/ondeadline/2009/...

snip:
The financial blog Zero Hedge has posted an "exclusive" that claims that according to an insider's account, AIG (yes, that AIG) "was responsible for the banks' January and February profitability."


Saying it is "rarely speechless," ZH offered "a moment of silence for the phenomenal scam that continues unabated in the financial markets, and now has the full oversight and blessing of the U.S. government, which in turns keeps on duping U.S. taxpayers into believing everything is good."


ZH says the insider perspective came in an email from "a correlation desk trader." Unless you're a finance whiz (and who is these days?!) you might get lost in the explanation of how AIG supposedly engineered this feat of profitability. But ZH tries to explain the "mumbo jumbo" in "layman's terms":


AIG, knowing it would need to ask for much more capital from the Treasury imminently, decided to throw in the towel, and gifted major bank counter-parties with trades which were egregiously profitable to the banks, and even more egregiously money losing to the U.S. taxpayers, who had to dump more and more cash into AIG, without having the U.S. Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner disclose the real extent of this, for lack of a better word, fraudulent scam.


In simple terms think of it as an auto dealer, which knows that U.S. taxpayers will provide for an infinite amount of money to fund its ongoing sales of horrendous vehicles (think Pontiac Azteks): the company decides to sell all the cars currently in contract, to lessors at far below the amortized market value, thereby generating huge profits for these lessors, as these turn around and sell the cars at a major profit, funded exclusively by U.S. taxpayers (readers should feel free to provide more gripping allegories).

....................................................................



Fly adds..I don't know about other places but where I am, New banks keep springing up..seems I see a new one every week..while people lose homes and jobs, and as businesses close shop..all these new banks keep springing up..how and why..one has to wonder.......DOESN'T ONE???

[Dr.Phool]

116. Very informative post fly!

I've read a lot of that in other places, but not so much info in one spot.

Thanks! :hi:

[earth mom]

119. Thank you for continuing to post the truth!

:thumbsup:

[Romis]

130. The truth is here-live now

http://prisonplanet.tv/routerMembers/mediaplayer.php?cat=dailyshows&format=wmv&id=790

[DemReadingDU]

125. Great post, bookmarking

and what's up with all the new banks?

We had a nice little mini-branch in our grocery store, so convenient to cash a check or make a deposit when going to the grocery. It was closed because a brand new full-service branch opened up a block away.

The same thing is going on with our credit union. New buildings being built all over the area. Why? One sure is wondering.

:shrug:

[hfojvt]

43. there are still 19 million Americans employed in manufacturing

not including farmers. The statement that "we don't manufacture ANYTHING" is simply not accurate.

[Angleae]

46. 19 million out of appx 140 million.

That's 13.5%. We do have some manufacturing, although quite a bit is simple assembly of imported parts (such as Boeing). We don't manufacture nearly enough for self-sufficiency.

[Jakes Progress]

32. Too many comfortable DU'ers.

Too easy to ignore the pain of others who are on the bruising edge of this economy.

There are two sure ways to identify weak thinkers. One is the liberal who becomes conservative when he gets rich enough. The other is the "look-at-the-bright-side" types who turn rabid progressive when economic reality slaps their rose glasses from their face as they or their kids lose jobs, homes, lives.

We could debate why we are headed the wrong direction. We could discuss who is leading us there and why. We could discuss motive and rationale. What is clear is that we are going the wrong way.

(BTW, Pale Blue. I guess you have seen that speaking this way is likely to get you tossed.)

[ihavenobias]

34. K & R n/t

[Extend a Hand]

36. even "doomier" here

I also read several economic blogs daily, having lost my programming job to off-shoring, I have plenty of free time.
I agree with you that the Geithner plan is doomed to fail at restoring the status quo. I don't think that this problem is "fixable" without ditching our current economic model that requires perpetual growth. We might have a chance with something like the Hubbert's model for what he termed a "steady state economy" but something like that would require a huge power shift and that isn't going to happen willingly.
http://www.energybulletin.net/node/3800

Given that reality, Obama's plan is reasonable. It keeps the banks (and our current financial model) teetering along for as long as possible.
We need the time to build up our infrastructure like crazy so that when the current model does die at least we'll have the benefit of an up to date infrastructure to start over with.
When our system dies we'll take the rest of the world down with us so everyone else will have to start over too (and since we still have the biggest military there's not much anyone else will be able to do about it)

[jimlup]

37. Hey Pale Blue Dot

I've followed your posts and I wanted you to know that they are quite informative to me. I am worried that you might be right and your analysis does hold water as far as I've seen. I will watch the video you recommended as my time permits.

Don't give up just because some people here are suffering from Obama blindness. My stand was always that those of us on the left would have to push him really hard the day after the election. I agree that he is now in a very awkward position. I hope that he has as one poster often puts it "Got This" but I fear that despite his charisma our bottomless pit economic problems are too serious for a Wall Street hire (even of the class of Barack Obama) to handle.

Thanks for your work.

[DemReadingDU]

59. The Crash Course video, for those who haven't seen it

It's the basic fundamentals, how we got to where we are now...money, debt, bubbles, exponential growth.

Here is the link to the Boston PBS WGBY replay of the Chris Martenson Mini-Crash Course which originally aired on 2/10/09. Watch Martenson in action as a professor teaching a class in the live-studio of WGBY. He describes his background, some things going on around him that didn't make sense, why he constructed the Crash Course series of videos, and teaches a great mini-course on the economy.

If you haven't yet had the time to watch the series of Chris Martenson Crash Course videos, perhaps this 38 minute mini-course will be the thing that moves everyone to watch the complete course.
http://www.chrismartenson.com/blog/pbs-streaming-video/13217


P.S. Here is the link for the complete series for the Chris Martenson Crash Course videos which provide a baseline understanding of the economy, creation of money, debt, bubbles, energy, environment. This is a series of 20 video chapters, each video is between 3 and 20 minutes in length, meaning that all 20 chapters should take about 3.5 hours, but they need not be watched all at the same time. Try appx an hour a day for 3 days.
Martenson has now posted a transcript with each video chapter.
http://www.chrismartenson.com/crashcourse

[SarahB]

38. This was an amazingly written post.

K&R

[PassingFair]

39. K & R

Right on, from Detroit!

We have EMPTY homes here, going to
wrack and ruin, because there are
not enough people with good paying
jobs to keep them up.

Even if you squat in a "free house",
you've gotta come up with money for
health care, heat, water, food, etc.

It's impossible on $10.00/hour jobs.

So many people had manageable debt--
when they had JOBS or businesses that
were making money.

That has all changed now.

We have been screaming for 10 years
here in Michigan, but the rest of the
country (and, in truth, many here in
MICHIGAN itself), has been blaming
UNIONS and taxes for ruining manufacturing.

The race to the bottom on WAGES is what
has caused, and will continue to RUIN
our economy.

[bbgrunt]

41. k n r. this is the ultimate class war and I

fear too many who take the label Democrat are really allied with the elite. I hear almost nothing about retooling the past trade deals, I see no effort to close loopholes for corporations, I hear very little from Dems regarding the free choice labor efforts.......and I'm waiting for someone to address reregulation of the financial sector.

The economy is going to flop around until there is a new source of good jobs. It will appear to get better, the stock market may even go up, but until we can stop the corporations from forcing us to compete with slave, child and prison labor, our economy will devolve.

[Qutzupalotl]

104. Well said.

We have a population that is reasonably educated and willing to work, just not able to in the current climate -- and it has everything to do with the playing field. We are competing with essentially slave labor, so our wages are being depressed. Perot was right about that. We need to rewrite or cancel free trade agreements.

I'm not opposed to tariffs, even if they start a trade war; I think we'd do all right in a trade war because of the diversity of our workforce and abundant natural resources. I say bring it on!

We also need a local source of jobs that can't be outsourced. Obama mentioned wind power installation -- well, that's one sector, but we need a lot more!

[LooseWilly]

42. Are you sure Fekete isn't a LaRouche disciple?

I did a wiki lookup, and it's not mentioned... but LaRouche has been on about the gold standard (Fekete's apparent sacred cow) for decades. That and a New Deal to repair the nation's infrastructure (stimulus?).

Not that I disagree with the merits of a gold standard (hell, let's be honest, not that I understand them really...), but I suspect trying to go back to the gold standard from the early 70s would not be even remotely feasible.
I'm also a bit suspicious of this "Marginal Productivity of Debt" term that is bandied about in the article, as the means of determining its value is never mentioned (taking gdp divided by debt was, if I read it right, the Keynesian methodology, which was decried by Fekete as flawed... so, how does one determine this fanciful "Marginal Productivity of Debt" value? There was no mention of this wonderful term on Fekete's wiki page... and not even a cursory explanation of how it is determined in the article).
Once the implicit validity of the valuation of that term comes into question, the rest of the article, for me, becomes just an elaborate (and generally impenetrable) lecture to convince that without a gold standard we're all economically doomed.

Fekete might be right, but this article doesn't convince me.
Ironically, all it does is convince me that all the time I spent hoarding my money because I figured I'd piss off someone and get fired, and went a long stretch failing to live up to those expectations, means that... if I can hold out spending it long enough... then my buying power might suddenly magnify exponentially.

[Truth2Tell]

44. Outstanding Post. K&R nt

[Tigermoose]

45. Hope vs Despair - Lord of the Rings analogy

It's funny. But one thing I've learned on the net is that we tend to focus on facts that fit our predisposition and worldview. In the Lord of the Rings, Saruman goes over to the Dark Lord because he only sees the negatives that the Sauron wants him to see in the Palantir. The net is like that palantir. Maybe you need to cover it up, go outside on a nice Spring day, and enjoy life as it really is and stop despairing about the future. And you might want to read the Lord of the Rings. The major theme is having hope when all seems lost.

"Authority is not given to you, Steward of Gondor, to order the hour of your death," answered Gandalf. "And only the heathen kings, under the domination of the Dark Power, did thus, slaying themselves in pride and despair, murdering their kin to ease their own death."
The Lord of the Rings
Chapter 'The Pyre of Denethor'.

This is your realm, and the heart of the greater realm that shall be. The Third Age of the world is ended, and the new age is begun; and it is your task to order its beginning and to preserve what may be preserved. For though much has been saved, much must now pass away.
The Lord of the Rings
Gandalf, Chapter 'The Steward and the King'.

[omega minimo]

47. aye

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x5467358

[TheWatcher]

53. Please DO NOT Shut Up PBD.

We NEED Voices like yours to keep shining the light.

At this point, voices like mine are far too acerbic, impatient, and cynical, and I will freely admit that.

Which is a shame because I actually DO have a lot to add to a discussion, and I as well know what I am talking about. But my tone is far too harsh for most. It is just maddening to me how many people are falling for the false hope, propaganda, and unmitigated bullshit that is being peddled to the public on a daily basis. The "Recovery" they keep selling is nothing more than the "Recovery" and "Preservation" of the Ponzi Mechanics that are responsible for DESTROYING the real economy to begin with. The Predators are not going to change their nature.

But again, I will admit I am far to frustrated and disillusioned to play nice right now.

I see what's being done to my country, and I am angry.

Outraged beyond belief at those who are doing it, and equal outrage at those who are drinking in the propaganda like their favorite Beer, and actually cheering it all on.

My problem is that I have LOST my voice, at least in the sense of use for reasonable debate and discussion. I need to take a step back for awhile, because it is clear to me that I can't do this right now.

But the survival of our nation depends on us NOT being silent, and RESISTING those who are taking us down the wrong path.

Keep your voice loud, firm, and unyielding.

It is NEEDED.

And don't worry about those who can't or won't get it.

Hopefully at some point there will be enough who DO who will end up making the difference because people like you refused to be silenced.

[Ghost Dog]

54. k&r n/t

[Dr.Phool]

64. Your tone is just about right, Watcher.

In a Lewis Black kind of way.:hi:

[TheWatcher]

84. Being a huge Lewis Black fan, I appreciate the compliment.

:)

We need your voice too, Good Doctor. :)

Keep Shining The Light.

Hope you are doing well. :hi:

[KoKo]

78. Well said...

:thumbsup:

[earth mom]

118. Your posts are great, so please-Never Give Up!

:thumbsup:

[rucky]

63. I'm just hoping that we really are investing, and we'll see a return

I don't expect a surplus, or even a break-even scenario to the debt we're running up for this. But if we get a good portion of our losses covered, we at least won't be screwed for generations.

[pleah]

65. K&R

[bobshin]

66. Listing to MSM, even NPR, they're broadcasting this false veil of hope...

that things will stabilize and go on as they always have. It's bothersome that instead of addressing the problems they skim over everything with this seeming belief that it will all just work out fine. I too look around and read deeper into these issues and see more problems ahead. I don't want to and would like to believe the media that appearances driving attitudes will turn things around. Deep inside though it feels more like the calm before the storm.

[KoKo]

79. "TPTB" sold us two wars, created two bubbles (masking job loss, wage loss)

throwing folks into debt by telling them to charge more and more and creating media shows to make them feel they too could be Donald Trump, Carl Icahn, Jack Welch or any of the other hot shots if they just learned how to "Swim with the Sharks."

They turned our Stock Market into "Fast Money" by encouraging Trading and allowing Venture Capitalists and Hedge Funds to make enormous profits by buying up small companies and taking them "public" before they were ready, meanwhile breaking up large companies and re-selling the parts after they'd laid off the workers and cheapened the goods so there was little value left. Some companies they drove out of business, others they bankrupted, while others became so huge that they eventually imploded under all the debt. They offshored jobs in the name of making companies more "competitive." They created sophisticated products which eventually were just worthless paper (values in thin air)that they were buying and selling to anyone they could sucker which brought down banks and drove some out of business altogether.

They crashed our economy, raped our 401-K's and and much of the worlds economy by borrowing, stealing and and hiding their profits in places where only they had the access keys and all the while being cheered on by a fawning media.

And neither our Constitution nor all the De-regulated Banking and Market Watchdogs could hold up against this onslaught.

They have, for the most part, gotten away with it all. They will, for the most part,never be held accountable because the public (helped by a controlled Mainstream Media) has a short memory and "Shock & Awe" moving from one disaster to the next perpetuates the dullness of the mind to escapism as the only defense against the constant onslaught.

Those of us who can still keep from getting dulled into oblivion need to keep "banging the pots and shouting." (Ivins)

[tomm2thumbs]

69. no one knows, everyone is guessing - that is the real truth

but i like the educated guess we are getting from this administration better than the under-educated ones we got from the last administration much better.

we gave bush 8 years (like it or not) and I'm willing to give Obama at least 4 before I hold judgement against him

[TreasonousBastard]

73. Well, I've been moaning about the debt problem for years....

long before it was popular. Been moaning about a few other things, too, like how buying a home or car isn't an option any more, so we are forced into debt whether we like it or not. And using debt and leverage not to build capital, but to build paper profits and cover present expenses.

But, I don't question whether or not there's too much public and private debt-- that's a given. I ask just what can we do about it at this point?

"You know, you really shouldn't have stuck your hand in the fire." That's great advice, a but a little late and doesn't treat the burn.

So, how far will the world's economy collapse, and how far will ours? No one knows, of course, but everyone has a plan to slow down or, hopefully stop, the collapse. Mostly, it means propping up the system and going along like we have been and hoping for the best.

What happens if and when it collapses? That's a little easier to answer, since we've seen collapses before. Biggest problem isn't the stock market, bank failures, housing prices, or 401Ks-- biggest problem is feeding, clothing, and housing 6 billion people. Everything's gone to shit and we all have little shacks to live in, a daily gruel ration, there's electricity most of the time and the hospitals still work. Not what we expected growing up, but as long as the place isn't run by warlords, it's as good a time as any to reconsider just what society is all about. And catch up on some reading.

Ya see, it has occurred to me that there isn't one damn thing I can do to significantly influence the future so I can't be bothered worrying about it-- I worry about what little I can influence.

[redqueen]

107. Wish I could rec this post. (nt)

[leftofthedial]

75. Good post.

I'm deeply troubled by the Summers-Geithner cabal running our economy even further off the cliff.

I'm also not happy about a couple of other issue with the Obama Administration.

[Autumn]

76. Thank you for the excellent post

and the link. I have bookmarked it to watch this afternoon.:kick: It is getting very scary out here.

[Kolesar]

77. The "loan sharks" would be pension funds, insurance companies, China, Japan, &the Saudis

This reminds me of the Weimar Republic: Germany paid back the onerous "war reparations" with worthless, inflated Marks.

What is a $US going to be worth in five years?

[KoKo]

80. You know...if we prosecuted we could "claw back" an awful lot of money

in the next few years from these criminals. (Think of how many Offshore Accounts have billions) Is it enough? Probably not, but it would certainly be a start along with other measures to swing the balance from the "top down" to the "bottom up."

[nvme]

82. If no one is spending

Then the government has to. Otherwise we will go into freefall. I do not see any sector making huge capital investments. The only one to do that is the current administration. If Im broke and have a serious roof leak do I just allow the house to fall apart or do I borrow myself into more debt in order to preserve the house?

Serious revision need to be put in place over our banking laws. I think anti-trust efforts should be directed toward these Investment/house/banks/insurance companies.

It is not a good Idea to send in fire inspectors into a building while it is still burning.

[snot]

85. k&r'd

[Echo In Light]

86. How's this for doom: Quotes from Hunter S Thompson

"The only ones left with any confidence at all are the New Dumb. It is the beginning of the end of our world as we knew it. Doom is the operative ethic.

...We have become a Nazi monster in the eyes of the whole world, a nation of bullies and bastards who would rather kill than live peacefully. We are not just Whores for power and oil, but killer whores with hate and fear in our hearts. We are human scum, and that is how history will judge us. No redeeming social value. Just whores. Get out of our way, or we'll kill you. Who does vote for these dishonest shitheads? Who among us can be happy and proud of having all this innocent blood on our hands? Who are these swine? These flag-sucking half-wits who get fleeced and fooled by stupid little rich kids like George Bush? They are the same ones who wanted to have Muhammad Ali locked up for refusing to kill gooks. They speak for all that is cruel and stupid and vicious in the American character. They are the racists and hate mongers among us; they are the Ku Klux Klan. I piss down the throats of these Nazis. And I am too old to worry about whether they like it or not. Fuck them."

[billyoc]

87. This is DU, you'll shut up when you're told too.

Haven't you been paying attention since election day?

[JDPriestly]

90. Pale Blue Dot, you are right on. Obama is making horrible

mistakes on the economy -- and he is not listening to dissent. Sure, he has to choose a path and go down it, but he is not speaking to the issue of how the debt we are taking on will be repaid. And I don't think he knows.

When you read the great literature including our legends and myths, you find that we humans think in terms of good guys and bad guys, actions and consequences. We place human conduct into stories that demonstrate cause and effect. We identify good guys and bad guys according to what happens to them and then we define our own behavior according to how we think the guys who get the result we want will act. It is our means of organizing information and making decisions about our direction in life.

That is the power of myth, of story-telling.

If Obama does not tell this story accurately and fairly, if he does not point the finger strongly at what went wrong and precisely why, if he does not make a clear case against the conduct that brought this disaster, Americans will point the finger at him before the end of his first term. He will be viewed as the problem, the cause of the disaster.

He is making a huge mistake by trying to attribute blame to everyone equally. He needs to point to the bad behavior and admonish against it. He needs to point to the living human examples of the greed and call them out. It is as if there were a huge spot of tomato sauce on his shirt, and he refused to wash it out for fear of hurting the feelings of the tomato sauce. Greedy people are the problem here.

Until Obama tells the story in such a way that the ordinary people, including the Fox News watchers can understand it, he will be struggling for trust and credibility.

[Baby Snooks]

91. The Two Americas...

While I believe it was unwitting I believe just the same that Barack Obama has merely continued policies which will serve only to ensure that we remain "Two Americas" and become "Two Americas" without a middle class - we will simply be the rich and the poor who will serve the rich and support the rich through the taxes they will pay.

The tax cuts/increases are merely sleights-of-hand and the rich will continue to pay less taxes as Congress, which represents only the rich at this point, continues to create loopholes for them. Which they are. They are hidden away in bills we never see and never are told about. We have a monumental deficit and even more monumental debt at this point. And we are adding to it daily. Most accept it is around $10 trillion at this point but no one knows for sure. It could be even higher. Reality is our government lies to us. It cooks its books the way Enron did. Enron in fact used the government's accounting system.

Who will pay for it all?

As for the stimulus, the real economic figures indicate neither of the stimulus packages have worked. Foreclosures are rising along with unemployment. Local tax districts are facing disaster as tax bases are eroded by devalued property. Prices at the pump have gone down but prices at the grocery store have gone up. Many who have lost their jobs or lost their small businesses are realizing that instead of earning $100,000 a year they may be lucky to earn $10,000 a year. While Wall Street continues to pay itself bonuses for having destroyed our economy.

No good deed goes unpunished. No bad deed apparently goes unrewarded.

The stimulus packages were meant only to save Wall Street which in turn said "thank you" to the American people by laying off as many of them as it could to ensure it retained as much as it could of what the American people gave them. It is OUR money. It is also our children's money and our grandchildren's money. And it may become our great-grandchildren's money.

Who is to blame for it all?

The dynasty. Which has remained firmly in place and in power.

?

[jonestonesusa]

94. Thanks for the post.

I appreciate the links to the secondary information. What use of public money in the short term will help the economy limp along and lead to job creation through a renewed domestic infrastructure - that's the question. A more progressive tax code is a necessary start - and President Obama has put that into his agenda, with the tax increases at the top, tax cuts at the big bottom. I also think that Obama gets it about the long term debt problem, though too much hope is being pinned on a quick recovery. The biggest problem with the current policy is the bank bailouts - a lot of public money out the door at a time when we can't afford it politically or financially. What if an equivalent amount to the TARP money had gone to economic infrastructure - energy, transportation, social safety net?

It's been great to hear your voice and collect the references to other discussions. Thank you!

[robdogbucky]

96. Thank you PBD

There is so much in this thread that exemplifies why DU is great and why it must survive. Great post and great additional comments and analyses. I hope I can contribute like that someday.

Recently, I also have been puzzled by the swiftness of certain news sectors to create upbeat news. Probably an effort to provide the psychological seeds for recovery as was the theory spouted in runaway inflationary times back in the '70s. You just know the creators of the hidden persuaders and the techniques that Madison Ave. gave to Wall St. and the rest of the US govt. structure (irony alert) are trying to orchestrate this as much as possible. Maybe to prevent the hordes from storming the gates?

But to counter the premature, let's forestall any real rebellion and keep the morale high strategy, even if forced and somewhat manufactured, there is the following report locally today that probably foreshadows the next phase of the financial domino effect we are living through. Folks were predicting that commercial mortgages would be that next domino, and lo and behold here it comes:

http://www.contracostatimes.com/news/ci_12155980

"The owner of 200 U.S. malls, including big regional malls in Hayward, Newark, Tracy, San Jose and San Francisco, has filed for bankruptcy, a sign the recession has intensified.

In the largest real estate bankruptcy ever, General Growth Properties filed for bankruptcy protection under Chapter 11. The developer listed $29.5 billion in assets and debts of about $27.3 billion in the Chapter 11 filing...

...The company says it simply can't refinance its existing debts amid a credit crunch that has yet to ease its grip during the recession..."

Batten down the hatches, here comes more recovery.


robdogbucky

[flyarm]

97. THANK YOU Pale Blue Dot ..YOU ARE SPOT ON!! k&r..

I SO APPRECIATE YOUR POST!! And your caring so much about the fate of our nation!!

fly

[jwirr]

98. In discussing the future with my family I have stressed the necessity

of preparing for the worst and living with a hope for the best. We are collecting supplies we may need in the future if things do not work out exactly as we hope. In each of our homes you will find us saving things like baby clothes, candles, a knife sharpener, how to books, etc. But at the same time we send our children to school, take care of our property, have parties and just in general enjoy what we have.

I think that it is important to be both hopeful and careful.

[katty]

100. thank you for your sanity-we need more of this

[MadrasT]

102. THANK YOU.

We're fighting the same battle, against the same people.

Exhausting, isn't it?

And no, I'm not going to shut up, either. :hi:

[Name removed]

103. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Name removed]

106. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[inna]

110. kicked and rec'd (#71)!

yay! the rec bug is gone! :bounce:

[earth mom]

117. We are in a Class War. That's the bottom line.

Yet we've got people here on DU who are either blissfully ignorant of that fact or are deliberately sweeping that fact under the carpet for their own purposes of propaganda.

What I want to know is-Who the HELL are these people who have NO FUCKING WORRIES right now?! :wtf:


Like seriously-Who the hell are they?!!!

Who the hell are these people who sing la de da with their fingers in their ears to drown us all out because we can clearly see the truth and have had a sinking feeling in our stomach for months, if not years?!

Who the hell are these people who have no worries-is the question we should all be asking.

Because anyone who is paying attention can see that there is an orchestrated effort around here to silence those who refuse to pretend that it's "all good".

Anyone with half a fucking brain can see that the powers that be are ripping us off while they tell us that what they are doing for Wall Street is good for Main Street, when in fact the very existence of Wall Street is the reason why Main Street has been destroyed.

Look no further than the fact that all those good paying union manufacturing jobs that this country used to have have been shipped over to China so that stock holders can get their huge slice of the pie instead of allowing U.S. workers their fair share of that pie.


Wall Street could give a flying fuck about Main Street or about any of us.


Wake up people. Nothing has "changed" and nothing is going to change with the criminals in charge.

Time to see the Class War for what it is and get the pitchforks ready.

[DemReadingDU]

126. My family is in deep disbelief

It's not from my lack of trying as I am sending them something about the economy nearly every week. They have other priorities like working, taking care of kids, hobbies, going on exotic vacations. My family is in their own world. They do not believe anything I say and most times do not read the articles or watch any videos I send them. None actually watch TV or listen to the radio either. They think it's only a small recession, recovery is right around the corner, the stock market always comes back. Truly, they are clueless. And they are college educated, who all have professional financial planners. They see me as the nutty sibling who reads blogs.


:wtf:

[aejlaw]

120. Thanks for your support!

If tax cuts are a big issue, then Republicans are in trouble. Obama just signed the biggest middle class tax cut in history. There could always be another one just before the next election. That's been the Republicans' tactic for the last 30 years. I say stick it right back at them. After all, wasn't it Dick Cheney who said "Deficits don't matter". Obama should thank the teabaggers for supporting his stimulus tax cuts, promise even more and criticize the Republicans for not getting on board. Didn't the Republicans just vote against the biggest tax cut in history?

[gulfcoastliberal]

121. If they closed all the tax loopholes and forced the companies to put all their currently hidden

offshore revenues on the books to be taxed, the debt problem would be quite manageable.

[Lydia Leftcoast]

122. Not to mention requiring the Pentagon to account for and return its

"missing" $2.3 trillion.

[quickesst]

123. For me...

...it's like the "doom and gloomers" as you choose to refer to them, act like they're the only ones speaking out, and campaigning against this president, ignoring the fact that he is being attacked by a loud, and seemingly influential right wing faction with the help of, and god help us, some Duers believe they're on our side, the more influential MSM. If this president fails, and he is not re-elected in 2012, the people, and I remind some there is life outside DU, will not be in any mood to give another democrat another four years. They're not going to demand that Dennis Kucinich run, and it will be a long time before they give the left another chance. They're going to follow the pendulum once more to the right who have been telling them all along Obama is bad, and he will fail. I wish someone like Kucinich would be accepted, but that's a fairy tale in this day and time, but I'm not stupid enough to believe that Sarah Palin, Newt Gingrich, or Bobby Jindal will be a better alternative than Barak Obama. So go ahead, tear Obama down, and when there is another republican in the White House in 2012, and I read the celebrations of how progressives "won", the only response you'll get from me is "Yeah, you won, but at what cost?" At least four more years of right wing lunacy which we may or may not recover from, but the price will haunt us forever. I just don't think it's worth not looking beyond the tip on one's nose. Thanks.
quickesst

[DemReadingDU]

127. Maybe Obama is just kicking the ball down the field

trying to re-inflate the bubble and hope the economy doesn't crash during his term. Then hand the ball to the next candidate in 2012.

From what I'm reading, Obama will be lucky if he can keep the economy afloat during his fist year.


Kucinich would be great, but TPTB would never allow him to be president.

[davidwparker]

124. "by borrowing MORE money" - It is about the lack of JOBS that pay for the

mortgages and keep the economy going.

Unless this is changed, we ARE doomed in this country.

[CubicleGuy]

128. The trouble as I understand it...

... is that we're printing up so much money in an attempt to bail out the big banks that hyperinflation down the line is pretty much a sure thing. The value of the dollar will collapse, and when it does, the fun begins in earnest.

Get your wheelbarrows now while the getting is good. At least, that's what I'm reading on the subject.

[antigop]

133. Thanks, PBD. I just found this thread (haven't been on too much lately)

Too late to recommend, but I will give it a kick.