Labor Department still lying about job loss numbers

[conscious evolution]

According to the Labor Department only 633,00 people lost jobs in March.
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm
The ADP corporation,a private payroll servicies company that handles payroll for less then 20% of the US workforce is reporting that 740,000 people lost jobs.http://google.adp.com/search?__EVENTTARGET=&__EVENTARGUMENT=&__LASTFOCUS=&__VIEWSTATE=%2FwEPDwUKMTI2NjU0MDY0OA9kFgQCAxBkZBYCAgEPZBYCZg9kFgJmD2QWAmYPZBYCZg9kFgQCAQ8WAh4EaHJlZgUBL2QCBQ9kFgJmD2QWAmYPEGRkFgFmZAIHDxYCHgRUZXh0BbIBPHNjcmlwdCB0eXBlPSJ0ZXh0L2phdmFzY3JpcHQiIGxhbmd1YWdlPSJKYXZhU2NyaXB0IiBzcmM9Ii9lbHFOb3dNQVMvZWxxQ2ZnLmpzIj48L3NjcmlwdD48c2NyaXB0IHR5cGU9InRleHQvamF2YXNjcmlwdCIgbGFuZ3VhZ2U9IkphdmFTY3JpcHQiIHNyYz0iL2VscU5vd01BUy9lbHFJbWcuanMiPjwvc2NyaXB0PmRkuiI53yzpA5pk7%2FvlwtjVNIMyXDM%3D&ctl01%24ctl00%24ctl00%24DropDownList1=100-Change&q=march+payroll+report&output=xml_no_dtd&oe=UTF-8&ie=UTF-8&client=default_frontend&proxystylesheet=default_frontend&site=default_collection
Let me repeat that-An independant company that handles >20% of the US workforce says 740,000 people lost their jobs.

Why is the US Department of Labor telling lies to the American people?

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

1. Probably has to do with how they collect their data.

DoL doesn't survey - they simply tally how many people file unemployment claims. However, many people either don't file, get new jobs, or aren't eligible for unemployment for one reason or another. Because of this, you won't always get an accurate read from the official unemployment report. It's still a relevant indicator of economic health because it still does track the trend of unemployment, even if it's not indicative of true unemployment.

It's not that they're lying - they just don't have the capacity to get an accurate reading.

[pinqy]

3. You're right about different collection, wrong about everything else

"DoL doesn't survey - they simply tally how many people file unemployment claims" Untrue. DOL does release a weekly report on UI claims, but that is NOT the basis of the Employment or Unemployment figures. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (administratively part of DOL, but functionally independent) releases the Employment Situation report every month. The Employment numbers (the 633,000 jobs lost) comes from a survey of 160,000 establishments. The Unemployment rate comes from a household survey of 60,000 households.

But you know, I just realized the OP might be thinking that the ADP report isn't a survey and that the 740,000 jobs lost represents less than 20% of the workforce. Which is not true. ADP SAMPLES less than 20% of the workforce and the 740,000 jobs lost is their ESTIMATE OF THE TOTAL.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics numbers are probably more accurate because they have a larger sample size than ADP.

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

5. Thank you for the clarification.

I should've known better. Bottom line is the same though - DoL isn't lying, it's just calculating differently.

On edit: and for the record, they have not, to my knowledge, change the way they do calculations recently.

[CreekDog]

12. The OP misquotes BLS, the 633k figure isn't even in the report he linked to

i would take the rest of his rantings with appropriately-sized caveats. :eyes:

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

13. This must be conspiracy theory Friday or something.

Lots of conspiracy kool aid flying around today. Either that or the tea baggers are back at their computers.

[Captain Hilts]

2. It's the number of employed that is the more accurate measure. nt

[pinqy]

4. Let's be clear

Why do you think the ADP number is more accurate? And do you realize that the 740,000 jobs lost is an ESTIMATE for the ENTIRE labor force based on their sample of <20%? I don't think you're understanding the concepts.

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

6. The 740,000 jobs would represent .44% of the entire workforce.

We currently have a workforce of 160-170 million Americans.

[pinqy]

8. Different surveys, different concepts

The current Labor Force (based on the Current Population Survey) is 154,048,000 (140,887,000 Employed + 13,161,000 Unemployed) That's a household survey and includes everyone 16 years and older who is not in prison, any other institution, or the military. The Job Loss numbers are from an Establishment survey that only covers non-farm establishments (133,019,000 jobs) Excluded are agricultural workers, the self-employed, and domestic workers (nannies, housekeepers etc). That's where the BLS number of 663,000 jobs lost comes from. The ADP survey is similar to the BLS establishment survey and doesn't represent everyone either.

[Dr.Phool]

7. ADP releases monthly job figures. Not unemployment claims.

And they are always wrong. The Labor Dept numbers come out 2 days later and the losses are always higher than ADP's numbers.

I've been tracking them for about 2 years, and it's always the same story, month, after month.

[quiller4]

9. ADP is losing clients.

There was a recent article in a regional business paper about the number of firms taking payroll services in house after cutting staff. Another significant factor: if you accept an early retirement with a golden parachute, then you are retired; not unemployed. A large employer in my region recently cut its workforce by 5,000. That staff cut only added 1,500 to the rolls of the unemployed. The rest were all early retirements.

I don't believe that the US Dept. of Labor is lying. There figures correspond with new filings for unemployment benefits.

[tammywammy]

10. Yes, I know that we've moved from ADP to another payroll company n/t

[CreekDog]

11. Probably the stupidest and most uninformed post i have read in months

and that is saying a lot.

and learn to read while you are at it:

the BLS says "In March, the number of unemployed persons increased by 694,000"

the BLS also said: "Nonfarm payroll employment continued to decline sharply in March (-663,000)"

not 633,000 for either statistic. in fact 633,000 is nowhere in the BLS document.

:eyes: