I think we're through it. Anybody else agree?

[sfpcjock]

The news has been good to adoring for most of the 100 days of Obama. I find that nothing short of phenomenal considering the perfect crap storm we have been through and general current deviciveness of the idiots in Washington.

Unemployment will probably continue to suck for a while as a lagging indicator, but this recession is around 17 months old which makes it a long one and now overdue for recovery. The market is probably bottoming, not just a bear market rally. That will bring general rejoycing.

I live in "Kollyfornia" where unemployment is 10 or 11%, but I'm old and I feel it in my bones. Anybody else agree or am I full of it?

Thanx

[bluestateguy]

1. You've just issued an open invitation to the doomers and gloomers to pummel you

nt

[Common Sense Party]

2. With no evidence but their own pessimism and cries of, "look around

you!"

[Mr. Hyde]

7. record unemployment, record foreclosures, declining retail sales, shrinking GDP, deflation,

massive increases in national debt...how's that for evidence?

[ProfessorGAC]

13. Deflation?

Who is showing evidence of deflation? Most people don't even understand deflation. It's not the opposite of inflation.
GAC

[Mr. Hyde]

15. .........

The BLS CPI shows definite signs of deflation over the past 6-8 months although the signs are obscured somewhat. The unemployment numbers and the retail sales numbers also suggest a deflationary spiral. Look at home prices especially. Then there's food and energy which are conveniently ignored in the CPI. The recent actions of the fed and the admin strongly suggest that they are attempting to reverse a deflationary spiral i.e. throwing money out the helicopter door also.
This from the BLS march CPI repot: "The index has decreased 0.4 percent over the last year, the first 12 month decline since August 1955".
I think the question is "why are we in a deflationary spiral, not "are we in a deflationary spiral".

[pnutbutr]

17. because

there is little to no money flow. When confidence is down and banks are not lending, it creates a stagnant market which results in deflation. We have thrown money out every opening possible to get the market moving again but it really hasn't had the impact that was hoped for.

[ProfessorGAC]

27. My Models Would Refute Your Analysis

GAC

[Common Sense Party]

23. Record unemployment?

[DFW]

3. I hope so, but don't share your optimism

And I'm not even from Missouri.

A lot more things will have to go right before you have a chance, there, and
so far, I don't see them going right. Debt either accumulates or is written off.
Up to this point, I only see it accumulating further, and that means bad news.

[MADem]

4. He's had his bumps in the road--you just aren't remembering them.

He had trouble with cabinet posts, the UK visit of the Browns, which was clumsily handled by his people, and of course, the "Waaah, why didn't he pick a shelter dog?" contingent. What he has demonstrated is a reasonable amount of resilience.

He's had good luck with his European junket, this "Americas" trip, and of course, three headshots to release Captain Phillips from the grip of pirates.

I hope he does well, and has a successful presidency. After all, the old saying that "The shit rolls downhill" applies. If he does well, we do well.

[MrSlayer]

5. We're not done yet.

But it looks like we have the bleeding slowed. We're still going to spend a significant amount of time in intensive care but I think we're going to survive.

[Mr. Hyde]

8. The bleeding isn't slowing, it's gushing.

here's an interesting link which elaborates more: http://www.slate.com/id/2216238/
You can see the hemorrhaging begin around june of 2008 and watch it steadily get worse all the way to the present.
Wall street may be showing signs of "stabilization" but this recession/depression began on main street and will end on main street, not wall street...IMO of course.

[Jeep789]

6. I'm optimistic but think it imperative that we make necessary

changes including regulating financial and credit agencies, limiting the use of and increasing consumer access to credit reporting agencies and severely curtailing job in-sourcing and outsourcing. I'm hopeful that Obama just wanted to stabilize the economy first and will be making these necessary changes but I am a bit fearful that by stabilizing it first, he may have let the ship sail and that getting the regulations passed that are necessary to ensure a future stable economy will be more difficult.

[bobburgster]

9. Think bleeding has been controlled for now

My only concern is the regulations necessary for sustained improvement will not get passed unless the economy returns to its deathbed.





"...he may have let the ship sail and that getting the regulations passed that are necessary to ensure a future stable economy will be more difficult."

So true, so true

[Mr. Hyde]

10. why do you think that?

[ixion]

14. "sustained improvement" is a myth

and statistically impossible.

[northernlights]

11. I think it depends on where you're sitting

The stock market may or may not be around bottom, so if that's what matters to you then it might appear to be turning around. But I think the real economy is teetering and has only begun to crash.

Record numbers of foreclosures are due to go up this year.
High unemployment is expected to go up this year.
Credit card defaults are about to hit, according to the finance forum.

I think President Obama has bought us a little time. I consider this the eye of the storm, and I expect the back half will include the storm surge.

[old mark]

12. I'm old, too, and I agree with the OP - I'm looking at buying into the

stock market again, maybe as soon as this fall.
I have not had a dime in it for 2 years, but I feel like the time is coming, and no, I can't give you a rational reason.

But I made a pot of money in it last time....

mark

[Locrian]

16. half right

w/o changes to the system for more regulation - we are gonna see a LOT of ups and downs. Boom and bust.

Right now the smoke and mirrors are working overtime. We will probably see a ton of false indications that the "market" is recovering which could make a bubble. Until reality sets in.

Of course - the people talking reality will be the party poopers vs the pump and dump crowd.



Bottom line - its ALL a house of cards. The only thing that makes it stick together is bullshit.

[bemildred]

18. Possible, I remain skeptical.

There are a number of shoes yet to drop. I think there is a good chance things will get uglier at a less precipitious rate.

[lunatica]

19. UC Berkeley is slashing jobs all over the campus right now

The shuttle service around the perimeter of the university and which also goes to all the outlying research areas and laboratories is being completely shut down by August 1. They will now contract the bus transit system to do the shuttle's service. They eliminated 10% of the IT department and are offering deals for early retirement and they're asking staff and faculty to voluntarily cut back on their hours or they'll start a furlough program.

Congress isn't doing anything about the credit card companies who are now practicing usury except 'considering a bill'.

Banks and Mortgage companies are not lending money yet.

I don't think we're past it yet. There's more to come and we're one bubble away from real an even worse disaster.

[CTyankee]

20. I am old, too, but I feel that we are on the verge of the creation of a new economy.

We have to create one that's BIG, in order to take care of future debt. That will take LOTS of talent and effort but I think it can be done. I want to think the economic future is in green energy, the way the last boom was in IT. I cannot believe that Obama and his talent pool haven't thought this thing through and anticipated everything they can possibly think of. Maybe I'm too optimistic but I trust Obama and his judgment. Since I voted for him and supported him I feel it's the least I can do.

[sfpcjock]

26. Thanks. You are right.

The banks still have bad debt and some bad stress tests yet to drop, but this world has over $6B mouths to feed. The way that ALL the technologies work, not just the speed of microprocessors, is that the knowledge is doubling exponentially and the last generation is used to design the newest technology.

As soon as it catches up and we begin save part of the $3/4T that we waste on fossile fuels every year the labor market will fully recover. The background is on KurzweilAI.com.

[leftofthedial]

21. ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha!

good one!

:rofl:

Thanks!

[SammyWinstonJack]

24. .

:spray:

[a la izquierda]

22. I feel it...but I live in Oklahoma

Unemployment hasn't affected this state nearly as much as it has in other places.

[robdogbucky]

25. No, I do not agree

The reason being is that I notice the surge of feelgood stories that do not make sense in the face of retractions and/or other shoes dropping. Here is an example of that. In a local paper, in our Bay Area no less sfpcjock, of what some forecasted months ago, that the commercial real estate mortgage crisis/bubble was about to burst.

Sounds like that shoe is starting its descent:

General Growth Properties filed for bankruptcy protection and listed assets of $29.6 billion in assets and debts of $27.3 billion in the Chapter 11 filing.
"Our restructuring efforts will be invisible to the tens of thousands of customers who visit our properties every day," Tom Nolan, General Growth's president, said during a conference call. "Our workers will continue to get paid and our shoppers will continue to shop. Our properties are desirable and performing well."]

http://www.contracostatimes.com/search/ci_12155980?IADID=Search-www.contracostatimes.com-www.contracostatimes.com&IADID=Search-www.contracostatimes.com-www.contracostatimes.com


I would caution premature joy at this point. I don't trust the bastids to tell us anything truthfully any more. Too many lies, too many psyops, agitprop, etc. over a lifetime of 60 years to believe half of what I see and none of what I hear.

Just my dos centavos


robdogbucky

[Mari333]

28. my small town of 5000 people just lost 300 union jobs in MI today

the plant closing was directly attached to the auto industry.
300 jobs lost in a town this size is HUGE.
we have lost 2000 residents in the last few yrs.
only jobs left here are shining shoes of the petit faux bourgeousie tourists and truck stop hooker.
i dont see anyone in the admin acknowledging the need for better wages and decent paying jobs, so I have a sneaking suspicion that the good old usa is now a low wage service economy in many sectors. I guess the corporatists are happy, they may no longer have to move all their facilities to third world countries for slave labour. just make the usa into a slave labour country.

[sfpcjock]

29. Michigan is kind of a ghost town, tho

viz. parts of Detroit that look like Bodi

You might have to move to sun belt. Don't know more, sorry.

[Romulox]

30. Faith based OP. nt

[anonymous171]

31. I'll agree to an extent. We are almost through this bust cycle.

However, in order to stay out of this bubble-bust cycle, Obama is going to have to make some serious reforms (like raising the Federal minimum wage or signing the EFCA.)