Could Food Shortages Bring Down Civilization?

[Emillereid]

Scientific American Magazine - April 22, 2009

Could Food Shortages Bring Down Civilization?
The biggest threat to global stability is the potential for food crises in poor countries to cause government collapse
By Lester R. Brown


One of the toughest things for people to do is to anticipate sudden change. Typically we project the future by extrapolating from trends in the past. Much of the time this approach works well. But sometimes it fails spectacularly, and people are simply blindsided by events such as today’s economic crisis.

For most of us, the idea that civilization itself could disintegrate probably seems preposterous. Who would not find it hard to think seriously about such a complete departure from what we expect of ordinary life? What evidence could make us heed a warning so dire—and how would we go about responding to it? We are so inured to a long list of highly unlikely catastrophes that we are virtually programmed to dismiss them all with a wave of the hand: Sure, our civilization might devolve into chaos—and Earth might collide with an asteroid, too!

For many years I have studied global agricultural, population, environmental and economic trends and their interactions. The combined effects of those trends and the political tensions they generate point to the breakdown of governments and societies. Yet I, too, have resisted the idea that food shortages could bring down not only individual governments but also our global civilization.

I can no longer ignore that risk. Our continuing failure to deal with the environmental declines that are undermining the world food economy—most important, falling water tables, eroding soils and rising temperatures—forces me to conclude that such a collapse is possible.

The Problem of Failed States
Even a cursory look at the vital signs of our current world order lends unwelcome support to my conclusion. And those of us in the environmental field are well into our third de cade of charting trends of environmental decline without seeing any significant effort to reverse a single one.

In six of the past nine years world grain production has fallen short of consumption, forcing a steady drawdown in stocks. When the 2008 harvest began, world carryover stocks of grain (the amount in the bin when the new harvest begins) were at 62 days of consumption, a near record low. In response, world grain prices in the spring and summer of last year climbed to the highest level ever.

more at link: http://www.sciam.com/article.cfm?id=civilization-food-shortages&print=true

[Mike 03]

1. The only sentence in this article that shocks me is this one:

"For most of us, the idea that civilization itself could disintegrate probably seems preposterous."

Everyone I know thinks civilization could disintegrate any time now, and that it will probably happen more quickly than experts predict.

I personally imagine water shortage will do this before food shortage, but neither one would shock me.

[ewagner]

2. It's the "Malthus Theory"

It's been around for a long time but I think we're seeing some serious attention paid to it now.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_Malthus

[msongs]

3. free condoms n birth control for everyone, particularly overbreeding heterosexuals nt

[kestrel91316]

4. YES. Food security = national security, for those who haven't been paying attention

to the ways of the world.

It disturbs me greatly that so few know how to grow their own fruits and vegetables anymore.

[Warpy]

5. That's usually the most efficient way to do it

but environmental collapse and pandemic will do it, as well.

We might be facing all 3 in the next 50 years.

[dgibby]

6. Monsanto's dream come true!