Is it really possible that another Spanish Flu-type pandemic can develop?

[brentspeak]

Am I naive to think that another bubonic plague/Spanish Flu pandemic could not ever happen again?

[Stellabella]

1. Yes, it's possible, in fact we're overdue.

We're seeing evolution and natural selection in action.

[virgogal]

2. You are being very naive. n/t

[Warpy]

3. Bubonic plague is easily treated with antibiotics

We get a few cases around here in New Mexico every summer, usually transferred to people by dogs or cats that have been outdoors and eating varmints.

The thing that made the 1918 pandemic so deadly was the superinfection that followed the flu. While stories about people who died within hours are out there, most people took several days to die and generally succumbed to the pneumonia that developed once they were down with the flu.

We have antibiotics to take care of most of these pneumonias in developed countries. The death toll from another flu pandemic would be heaviest in the developing world where antibiotics are scarce and expensive, especially for rural people.

[brentspeak]

9. That's reassuring

On the Devil's Advocate side: I have read about antibiotic-resistant bacterial infections, but I don't think they're that widespread.

[frogcycle]

13. oh, they are widespread

that's why we keep getting new antibiotics. The old ones don't work.

[The_Casual_Observer]

4. The bad economy thing is worn out & so is Iraq & global warming so it's pandemic

time.

[spanone]

5. scary pic

Wary commuters wear face masks to protect against swine flu while traveling aboard Mexico City's subway.

Mexico scrambles to contain swine flu outbreak
Reporting from Los Angeles and Mexico City -- An outbreak of swine flu that may have killed up to 60 people prompted authorities Friday to close schools throughout this sprawling city of 20 million people and order emergency health measures in an attempt to contain the disease.
http://www.latimes.com/features/health/la-sci-mexico-swine-flu25-2009apr25,0,3847221.story

[frogcycle]

6. not just possible

inevitable

There were aggravating circumstances in the 1918 case: mass movement of soldiers coupled with housing in close quarters that got it going especially fast, the available treatments were limited; and what little that could be done was not widely known. So the next one will be less deadly, perhaps, but will still run rampant across the planet. We are vastly more mobile now, so it will spread faster. The one in 1918 killed some people within hours of the first symptom. Trolley cars returned from a day trip to the country with dead people on board. We could have planes full of bodies landing after international flights.

[brentspeak]

12. Modern-day plague ships

[NYC_SKP]

7. Yes, the likelihood that all manner of pandemics will present is increasing.

I don't want to freak you out, but some of the reasons for this over the past 100 years include:

Increased intercontinental travel.

Increased world population.

Increased world poverty.

Ecological devastation.

Fussing about with genetics and pharmaceuticals.

Climate Change.

I'm not certain, but I'd go as far as to say the likelihood is growing exponentially. :scared:

You should also post this in the DU Energy Environment forum.

[Just-plain-Kathy]

8. I keep thinking about the "bird flu" that was going to kill us all.

...Once Donald Rumsfeld made his five million from his investment with the pharmaceutical company (which he sat on the board of) of the company that produced the cure, the fear went away.

[frogcycle]

10. ok, you keep thinking about that n/t

[Mojorabbit]

16. That virus is still perculationg away

One death today in
Vietnam, one in Egypt, and one in Indonesia plus suspect cases in Indonesia in the hospital. There has been an uptick in cases of that virus since the beginning of the year. Still clusters occurring but no sustained human to human. If I had to choose between the swine flu and the virus in Asia, swine flu wins hands down. The asian virus has over a sixty percent case fatality rate at this time. I don't want that one to ever go pandemic.

[Speck Tater]

11. Don't be silly. Things that have happened many times in history can NEVER happen again.

We will never have another great depression.
We will never have another war.
We will never have another Katrina-sized hurricane.
We will never have another San Fransisco earthquake.
We will never have another widespread epidemic disease.

As a species we have evolved beyond all such primitive dangers. We are invincible! We are omnipotent! We are exceptional in all of recorded history.

[frogcycle]

14. you forgot

We will never have another comet impact.

Well, a guy can hope.

[brentspeak]

15. As far as man-made disasters are concerned...

...I'm firmly in the "history can very well repeat itself" camp. As far as natural disasters, though, I admit I sort of magically-think the many possibilities away.