Flu Wiki Forum - for everything Swine Flu - plus cool graphic and Daily Kos article

[nashville_brook]

http://www.newfluwiki2.com/frontPage.do

You can take a look at the CDC and WHO visualization of how pandemics develop and are classified. Take a look, just so you're more familiar with it, as it may come up in the weeks ahead (click for bigger version.)



What Does The Swine Flu Outbreak Mean?
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2009/4/24/724231/-What-Does-The-Swine-Flu-Outbreak-Mean






Along the top are the WHO phases. We are currently in phase 3, and that corresponds with the Pandemic Alert Period. Skip the USG stages because they are not widely used. At the bottom, CDC has corresponding "intervals" for the graph, and they correspond to functional "what do I do and when" information about a potential pandemic. Moving from WHO phase 3 to 4 ("you are here") means moving from CDC interval "investigation" to "recognition". That's exactly where we are - investigation. But even so, should something untoward develop there'd be time do do some preparation before we moved into the "initiation" and the shit hits the fan "acceleration" interval, even if this goes sour some time in the near future.

However, moving from investigation to recognition (i.e., WHO phase 3 to 4, or movingt the right of the big red line) would trigger all sorts of changes and alarms and trip wires in pandemic plans developed by companies and countries, and that might have an effect on travel advisories. Some multinationals might call for ex-pats to return home, just as one example. Airlines and tourism might take an economic hit (that happened to Canada during the SARS epidemic in 2003, and Canadians are still sore at WHO for acting (in their view) too precipitously in issuing travel advisories.

All this is given to give you a flavor of the complex decision making that needs to go on. WHO will be meeting in emergency session to do just that, but it's not as easy as simply saying "be cautious", not when so many factors come into play. And for a look at school closures, I refer you to this previous post when we talked about exercises and seasonal cases in Hong Kong that closed their schools.

In the meantime, we'll be tracking it here (that's the wiki forum link above), along with the rest of the country, and we'll update periodically as needed. And if you want to know what preparations you can take, go here. It's a site we set up with Idaho's Emergency management team exactly for that reason. Or download this flu prep manual. We put it there so you could. This is an excellent opportunity to think about the unthinkable. And if nothing develops, you'll be better prepped for the next natural disaster that does happen.

[FedUpWithIt All]

1. Thanks.

:hi:

[nashville_brook]

3. i was inspired by your attention to the Cytokine Storm angle

that pricked up my ears, so to speak.

[FedUpWithIt All]

7. The evidence is certainly pointing in that direction.

I am really shocked at the speed of this thing.

The first identified case was about a month ago. That did not seem so intimidating last night due to the numbers being talked about. The numbers this morning are looking quite different.

Time will certainly tell. :-(

[MercutioATC]

12. Good info on elderberries and cytokine storm:

Elderberry extracts are good:

"In the treatment group, significant improvement in flu symptoms was observed in 93.3 percent of subjects within two days after initial dosing, while 91.7 percent of the control group demonstrated improvement after six days. A complete resolution was achieved in the treatment group in 90 percent of patients after 2–3 days, while the placebo group yielded similar results after six days."

BUT:

"However, elderberry also increases cytokine production. One specific concern with H5N1 infections is the possibility that this strain of flu may induce cytokine storm, leading to ARDS and the high mortality assosciated with it. It is unknown if the increased circulating cytokines that elderberry and other alternative medicines induce could increase a victims risk of cytokine storm."

http://www.fluwikie.com/index.php?n=Consequences.Elderberry


It seems the trick with elderberries is to use them as prophylaxis, BEFORE flu symptoms start or, at least, at the first signs of symptoms.

[FedUpWithIt All]

13. Sambucol.

Was planning to pick up some more tonight.


You are correct. It has to proceed (tough to do) or be taken immediately after onset.

[seemslikeadream]

2. Thanks

:hi:

[nashville_brook]

5. you're so welcome -- thank you for your posts on this, and

speaking up, generally.

[seemslikeadream]

6. boy I took some real crap late last night

[nashville_brook]

9. saw that -- totally uncool

wish i had a really insightful comment that would explain the psychology of it, but i don't. DU's become infected with assitis.

[horseshoecrab]

15. Just saw that thread...

jeez seemslikeadream, thanks for having such endurance!

horseshoecrab

[seemslikeadream]

16. it was all personal nothing of substance

:hi:

[hlthe2b]

4. kick

[jkshaw]

8. Thank you for this, brook

We're among the elderly demographic which is among the most vulnerable, along with young children.

[nashville_brook]

10. i have a immune condition, and am usually among the first to get sick

when something is going around. i'm canary-girl. best advice: wash your hands and stay out of movie theaters! the last half dozen times i've been sick it came on the day after going to the movies.

[hedgehog]

11. This stuff scares me because the article I saw this morning says

it is hitting the young and healthy more than the elderly. Shades of 1919!

[horseshoecrab]

14. k&R and thank you for posting this!

Thanks nashville_brook. Things are certainly changing fast.


horseshoecrab

[HCE SuiGeneris]

17. Phase 4

[FedUpWithIt All]

18. Have they officially announced it? n/t

[tekisui]

19. Not yet, but they are talking about raising it from 3 to 4 soon.

[HCE SuiGeneris]

20. No. However, it appears to be in the U.S.

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/04240902/H1N1_Swine_CA_TX_Clusters.html