Anyone who doesn't believe there will be another flu epidemic is just ignorant...

[Blackhatjack]

.... it is not a matter of IF, but rather WHEN.

Every epidemiologist you can find will confirm this fact.

Will Swine Flu be the trigger? Who knows.

But when it happens, it will be beyond devastating, and we are woefully unprepared to address it given the lack of a coherent public health network in this country.

This is not a time to panic, but keeping an eye on flu outbreaks will continue to be important for all of us.

[babylonsister]

1. Anyone who calls everyone ignorant unless they agree-

I have a problem with.

[depakid]

3. That's not what I read the post as saying

[Posteritatis]

24. There's plenty of cases where it's perfectly appropriate

Anyone who doesn't believe in evolution? The moon landing? The Holocaust? That the Earth isn't flat? That Fomenko's New Chronology is bullshit? They're all ignorant, in some cases staggeringly so.

It's not really that different for any highly infectious disease.

[Blackhatjack]

34. My use of the word 'ignorant' should not be misunderstood as the equivalent of 'idiot'...

... they are NOT INTERCHANGEABLE.

A person with no knowledge of a subject matter can legitimately be referred to as 'ignorant' in that regard. Being ignorant of a subject matter does not make one a bad person or detestable person. It means that they have a gap in knowledge, which can be remedied by study.

Einstein is considered to have been a genius because of his intellect. However, even Einstein was 'ignorant' when it came to certain exotic subjects.

We are all ignorant in regard to a multitude of subjects.

There is no shame in 'ignorance'.

I posted the OP in hopes that people will research the scientific literature, become better informed, and pay attention to events that could affect all of us. Sorry you were unable to discern that meaning from my OP and instead took personal offense from the words I used.

[Blackhatjack]

35. CDC, HHS and DHS mortality/morbidity predictions regarding influenza pandemics... LINK

Use the LINK to view the data tables from the reporting authorities and a fuller explanation of the methodology used.


The number of hospitalizations and deaths will depend on the virulence of the pandemic virus. Estimates differ about 10-fold between more and less severe scenarios. Published estimates based on extrapolation of the 1957 and 1968 pandemics suggest that there could be 839,000 to 9,625,000 hospitalizations, 18-42 million outpatient visits, and 20-47 million additional illnesses, depending on the attack rate of infection during the pandemic. Estimates based on extrapolation from the more severe 1918 pandemic suggest that substantially more hospitalizations and deaths could occur. The demand for inpatient and intensive-care unit (ICU) beds and assisted ventilation services could increase by more than 25% under the less severe scenario.

http://www.globalsecurity.org/security/ops/hsc-scen-3_flu-pandemic-deaths.htm

Flu Pandemic Morbidity / Mortality

"Pandemic years are associated with many more cases of influenza and a higher case fatality rate than that seen in seasonal flu outbreaks. It is common to encounter clinical attack rate ranges for seasonal flu of 5% to 15% in the literature. For pandemic flu, clinical attack rates are reported in the range of 25% to 50%.

During a typical year in the United States, 30,000 to 50,000 persons die as a result of influenza viral infection. Frequently cited numbers are 20,000 deaths each year, and 37,000 annual deaths. About 5-10% of hospitalizations for influenza lead to fatal outcome in adults."

SKIP


"Because the virulence of the influenza virus that causes the next pandemic cannot be predicted, two scenarios were presented by CDC, HHS and DHS based on extrapolation of past pandemic experience. The DHS estimates are suspect, since they appear to derive from a 1999 analysis that was based on the 1997 US population of 265 million. By 2005 the US population was about 295 million, so the DHS estimates are about 10% low simply due to the growth in population.

According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), it has been estimated that in the absence of any control measures such as vaccination and drugs, a “medium-level” influenza pandemic in the United States could kill 89,000 to 207,000 people, affect from 15 to 35 percent of the U.S. population, and generate associated costs ranging from $71 billion to $167 billion. Another Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) estimate suggested that, in the United States alone, up to 200 million people will be infected, 50 million people will require outpatient care, two million people will be hospitalized, and between 100,000 and 500,000 persons will die. These numbers are significantly higher than the estimates used by the Deparment of Homeland Security. The HHS notes that the death rate associated with the 1918 influenza applied to the current population would produce 1.9 million deaths in the United States and 180 million to 360 million deaths globally. It is most noteworthy that the "Low" scenario presented by HHS corresponds to the "High" scenario presented by DHS."

MORE

[Joe the Revelator]

41. Denying the fact that another Pandimic Flu will come is like denying Global Warming

It does make one ignorant.

[DainBramaged]

2. Everyone who doesn't believe isn't ignorant

they are just tired (like me) of being TOLD what we have to believe in and how much it's going to cost us to be saved.

Ignorant is in the eyes of the beholder, or the mirror, and to me you're looking in a mirror.

[depakid]

4. Perhaps it should have read willfully ignorant

because in some cases, that might be more accurate.

[ayeshahaqqiqa]

5. this is a time to build up your immune system

Astragulus root, when added to a stew or chicken soup, adds immune boosting properties, and doesn't taste yucky. Shitake mushrooms are also supposed to help boost the immune system. Eating fresh veggies is always a good idea, as well as drinking plenty of good water. And here's something you might not think about--be careful opening doors. That doorknob can be a landing place for a whole lot of germs. Be sure to wash your hands thoroughly, and sanitize doorknobs and light switches, especially if someone in your house has the sniffles.

If you are into supplementation, you might wish to boost the Vitamin C intake and take a capsule or two of lauric acid. The latter is quite effective in stopping something that is just starting.

[Voice for Peace]

8. also echinacea, and apparently vitamin d as well

not much dairy if any, lots of good water, probiotics if you can afford 'em
minimize processed foods, eat as close to original organic nature as possible
eat light, lightly that is

[Donnachaidh]

11. uh, if a pandemic hits the things we WON'T be worried about is doorknobs and light switches.

I agree with the building up the immune system, but the sanitizing is straight out of a Clorox commercial. We've been brainwashed into thinking that over-sanitizing will save us from everything short of a nuclear attack. Brought to you from the marketing folks at Proctor and Gamble.

[ayeshahaqqiqa]

30. I got this advice during a seminar on the bird flu

epidemic scare a couple of years back. It came both from our County Judge (from information packets supplied by the government) and one of our physicians.

And I don't use Clorox to sanitize--I use GSE.

But another thing they said that I think you will agree on is that if a pandemic hits, it is very likely you'll be stuck at home for a while. There will be limited amounts of vaccines, and they will go to first responders, medical folks, police, and fire fighters. The Judge said it would be wise to have a minimum of 2 weeks' supply of food AND water. When we had the ice storm and were without power for that long, his advice came in very handy, as we used our emergency supplies.

[Donnachaidh]

39. we have had an emergency supply ever since we went thru the Northridge quake

And we live in Georgia now. Our neighbors think we're nuts - but they've never been through a real emegency. Hell, the folks here crap their shorts and clean out the water and bread in the stores when there is a *possibility* of a quarter inch of snow. I fully expect to see these people lose their minds entirely if ever a REAL emergency hit Atlanta.

We also keep prescription meds on hand for emergencies too.

[Mojorabbit]

13. That may or may not be the case

depending on whether the reason the worst cases end up being in people with the most robust immune systems ie 20-45 years old as happend in Mexico. If it turns out a cytokine storm is causing the worst cases you do not want to help your immune system go into overdrive. We need more info.

[northzax]

14. Or, you could follow the simplest, cheapest and most cost effective preventative

Wash your freaking hands. A lot. And really wash them, with soap and hot water. And if you get flu, stay home for a day or two. Drink plenty of water and sleep. Wash them every time you touch your face.

[SheilaT]

15. Yep. What I keep on telling people.

Back in 1918 not many homes had running water, and routine hand washing simply wasn't routine. It's the single best disease preventative out there.

[northzax]

19. And conditions in 17-18 were a lot different than today

The flu bred and grew in overcrowded barracks and tenements. And houses were smaller all over. You just don't have those same indoor crowding issues among the general population.

Plus, as a general rule, healthy adults don't die of flu. Even then. People die from secondary infections, which of course, could not be treated by antibiotics back then.

[nadinbrzezinski]

17. And in this case I'd advise going to the doctor

if you are in the age group of 25-45 as in early stages antivirals may literally save your life

Leukotryte cascade not pretty

[ayeshahaqqiqa]

31. Yep

and cover your mouth when you sneeze-and then wash your hands again!

[uppityperson]

54. Wash then BEFORE you touch your face. Fun flu virus factoid.....

If they have viruses on them, you want to wash them before you touch your face. Unless you are sick, in which case before AND after to keep from spreading the virus.

Factoid:
influenza virus has a narrow temperature range it can live at. The respiratory system is just the right temp, cooler than the core of the body, for it to live at. This is why it gets into throat, lungs, etc. Touching your nose or your eyes with infected hand will transmit the virus right into the perfect temperature to live.

Bonus factoid:
increasing temp of body is way to raise temp to what virus will die at. Amongst other reasons. Hence a low grade fever, or bundling up/sitting in a hot bath, can actually help kill off the little buggers. Too high temp can cause other problems though.

[MADem]

6. That's just a silly thing to say. It's like saying "Anyone who doesn't believe the sun will appear

in the east tomorrow is just ignorant."

New flu strains appear all the time. Some are worse than others. You're not saying anything we don't already know.

And as for our public health network, it's not the best, but it's not the worst, either. One thing we have plenty of, is pharmacies. They can be used as distribution points for essential medicines in an emergency.


:hi:

[Voice for Peace]

7. whatever, build up & support your own immune system

as the brilliance of those little cells in our body is way beyond anything the medical world has invented

[Donnachaidh]

9. considering how much antibiotics are overused now - when the next one hits

It will be a shitstorm.

People have become so germophobic they've weakened their immune systems. That's just asking for the next superflu to fry your system.

[rucky]

20. Flus are viral.

But you have a point about other bugs.

[Posteritatis]

25. People scurrying for antibiotics because of a flu epidemic will make another epidemic more likely nt

[nadinbrzezinski]

10. If this is it and the measures taken now don't curb it

the numbers I've heard from WHO are absolutely horrific

Lets put it this way, the best organized system will be overwhelmed

[seemslikeadream]

12. Talk about the weather, or some singer, I hear that goes over very well here

Did I scare ya? I didn't mean to scare ya

[BlooInBloo]

16. Game over man - GAME OVER!

Thanks, Hudson.

[csziggy]

18. That is just like warning about the next CA earthquake, or Yellowstone eruption, or comet/asteroid

Strike or any number of other disasters that could happen at any time. Yes, the chances are that they will happen sometime in the next XX number of years. No, we really cannot stop them - they are pretty much inevitable.

The best we can do is to be prepared and try to encourage our governments at all levels to be prepared. Decide what you and your family will do in case of {insert your choice of disaster here} and make sure all family members know your plans and what to do. Keep informed and aware.

AS someone who was a child in Florida during the Cuban Missile Crisis, whose parents drilled us on what to do if the sirens went off, I've been well aware of how valuable plans can be to keep people calm and in control during a crisis. And as someone who early along read books about the aftermath of what could have happened during the Cuban Crisis, I know how futile many of those plans will probably be in cases of true disaster.

So plan what you can, hope the worst does not happen and enjoy the lives you have now!

[BlooInBloo]

23. That's what the Chicken Littles are banking on - *sooner or later* they're BOUND to be right.

:rofl:

[Cali_Democrat]

21. ......

[spoony]

26. omg

That made my night :spray:

[SammyWinstonJack]

28. .

:spray: Off to wash my hands with soap and hot water. :think:

[xchrom]

22. indeed. nt

[Fly by night]

27. As an epidemiologist, I resent the politicization of diseases to keep the population stirred up.

I believe that much of the manufactured "bird flu" panic of several years ago is a case in point. Historically, I also believe that the response early on to the HIV epidemic was also very politicized. In neither case were our own public health efforts assisted by that manufactured panic.

I laughed out loud when the movie "V for Vendetta", in showing how the forces of evil used the media to keep the population stirred up (and distracted), hyped "bird flu" prominently in their fictional newscasts.

It is appropriate to prepare for future pandemics. It is also morally imperative that we be truth-tellers. (That's how I used to define "epidemiologist" when someone asked what it meant.)

[Blackhatjack]

33. IF you are indeed an epidemiologist, please answer the following...

Please read the OP very carefully, and tell us what statement of fact contained therein is untrue.

If you are educated as an epidemiologist and you do not believe there will be another flu epidemic in the future, you have almost no support for that position from professionals in that field.

And how is pointing out a fact '...politization of (a) disease..." ?

Scientific opinion is subject to error, but it is always based upon a factual foundation.

A timeline of influenza epidemics shows that they occur periodically, and that because of the nature of the virus we can only guess from year to year what particular strain will will emerge which leads to formulations of flu shots that vary in their effectiveness for any given year.

THe Center for Disease Control in Atlanta has been asking for increased funding for decades to address this very real threat.

Anyone can post here at DU whether or not they have any knowledge of the subject under discussion. Their rantings and ravings mean little. But if you are an educated epidemiologist and you dismiss the OP as untrue and 'politization' you should be censured by your fellow professionals.

[Fly by night]

36. To repeat myself (in case you missed it)

"It is appropriate to prepare for future pandemics. It is also morally imperative that we be truth-tellers. (That's how I used to define 'epidemiologist' when someone asked what it meant.)"

As an epidemiologist who has worked at the state (Tennessee, New Mexico, Wyoming), federal (CDC, NIH) and tribal (Navajo, Zuni, Acoma, Laguna, Northern Arapaho and Eastern Shoshone) levels, I stand by every word I posted.

If you want a copy of my cv, just pm me with your email address and I'll be happy to send it to you. If you have credentials as an epidemiologist yourself, I'd love to know what they are.

BTW, since you don't have a profile posted here, I have no idea how long you've been a part of DU or anything else about you. (Curious that you don't want the rest of us to know who you are, isn't it?) I've been here for over four years now (and my profile is posted), so I don't need a lecture from you about how to behave here at DU, thank you very much.

[Blackhatjack]

37. I see you avoided answering my questions .... my statistical proof LINK at post #35

So put your professional opinion on the line --Do you believe there will be a influenza epidemic in the future or not? Pretty simple, answer yes or no.

For a statistical foundation supporting my OP see response and LINK at post #35.

BTW I've been a member of DU longer than you have, and lack of a profile posted here says nothing about my credibility. Of course I could prepare a false profile(as many do).... would that make you feel better about my posting facts that are verifiable?

[Fly by night]

40. To repeat myself for the third time: for the exceptionally thick

"It is appropriate to prepare for future pandemics. It is also morally imperative that we be truth-tellers. (That's how I used to define 'epidemiologist' when someone asked what it meant.)"

I see you have neither posted your credentials (just like you have not posted your profile) and you have not pm'ed me with your outside email address so I can send you my resume (which I remain very willing to do.)

If you cannot understand the above-posted statement (which I've posted three times now), you cannot share with the rest of us the basis for your expertise (or should I say attitude) and you cannot pm me your email address so that at least one of us (me) can share our credentials; then you're not worth wasting any more of this beautiful Sunday with.

I suggest you re-read everyone else's posts here, as well as several other threads that have been posted to counter your "booga booga" world-view. Then you might also try to get outside and get some fresh air.

Don't worry -- the sky won't fall on you. (Of course, we can't be sure of that. Can't be too careful these days, now can we.)

As far as you being here at DU longer than me, why would you expect me to take your word for that? You know exactly how long I've been here -- only one of us (you) remains a self-imposed mystery poster with unknown credentials and unclear credibility.

What's up with that?

[Blackhatjack]

42. Personal attacks are no substitute for answering factual questions yes or no....

Who needs credentials when they post easily verifiable factual statements with a Link? (Do I need to provide you with my professional credentials to make reference to the Periodic Table?).

Once again you spent precious electrons pontificating on 'credentials' and 'profiles' as if they will provide anyone with 'proof' of any of the statements I made in my OP.

As far as casting dispersions on my credibility because I have not provided you with a profile from which you can peer into the smoke and fathom the degree of credibility I deserve, I might make the counter argument with your feigned credibility because you posted a profile.

Epidemiologists deal with facts, and draw inferences from those facts, in the performance of their duties. Since you avoid facts, I have my doubts as to your allegations that you are an epidemiologist.

I guess you must be some kind of special epidemiologist since you use terms like 'booga booga.' Do you refute arguments in the course of your work by making up terms to describe them?

So you have not answered any of my questions, and have not pointed out even one statement in the OP which is untrue. I guess that is all anyone needs to know about who is 'telling the truth' in this exchange.

[Fly by night]

43. Congratulations -- you are only the fourth person in four years to win an "Ignore" from me.

But, hey, you deserve it.

See ya', bye. Really.

[Blackhatjack]

44. I guess you had no other alternative once you painted yourself into a corner...n/t

[Fly by night]

45. Here's the "corner" I painted myself into, anonymous one

I repeated three times that it is appropriate to prepare for another pandemic, but you kept asking me to answer your "yes/no" question for which the above statement provided the answer. Repetition still didn't get through to you. Why is that?

You questioned my credentials as an epidemiologist but refused to allow me to send you my resume. (For others here, I will post a link below that will allow anyone here to read my full resume. I couldn't care less whether you do or not.)

You hide your identity here at DU, giving us no information about yourself whatsoever. I do not. My profile includes the same link I will list below. It also includes a number of ways to reach me.

You claim to have been here longer than me, but (again) by having no profile to document that fact, you expect me (and everyone else) to accept that on faith. Why should we, when most of us play by different rules than you do.

You post an inflammatory thread calling DUers "ignorant" but you give none of us any basis for judging your own credentials on this or any other public health issue.

You are simply an anonymous, hostile, foundationless, clueless pos(t)er.

You either have something to hide or you have nothing to stand on. Of course, it could be both of the above.

Either way, the decision to "ignore" you was a good one. BTW, I just checked my short "ignore" list and two of the three pos(t)ers on it have already been tombstoned. So enjoy your time here, ye anonymous one.

It was worth taking you off "ignore" for a minute to see what other nonsense you posted. You're not worth my being tempted to do that again.


Bernard H. Ellis, Jr., MA, MPH
www.saveberniesfarm.com

Here's a little look at the basis for my opinions as an epidemiologist. Feel free to post your own, or keep hiding behind your wall of anonymity. Whatever you do certainly means nothing more to me.


1976-78 Director, Smoking and Health Information Program (affiliated with the Tyler Asbestos Workers Program), Tyler, TX

1978-80 Program Director for Smoking and Occupational Activities, National Cancer Institute (NIH), Bethesda, MD

1981-84 Preventive Medicine Consultant, Columbia, TN

1985 Regional Planner, South Central Region, Tennessee Department of Health, Columbia, TN

1987-90 Program Director for AIDS Surveillance and HIV Seroprevalence, TN AIDS Division, TN Department of Health, Nashville, TN

1990-91 Epidemiologist, HIV Seroepidemiology Branch, Centers for Disease Control, Atlanta, GA

1991-92 Director, Substance Abuse Epidemiology Unit, NM Department of Health, Santa Fe, NM

1993-present Consultant Epidemiologist, Bernard Ellis and Associates, Inc. (To date, we have provided epidemiological oversight for public health projects in California, Mississippi, Hawaii, Wyoming, Alabama, New Mexico, West Virginia, Montana, North Carolina and Texas; for the US Department of Justice and the US Department of Health and Human Services; and with the six Indian tribes I listed earlier.)

1996-2001 Project Director, WY Substance Abuse Treatment Needs Assessment Project, Cheyenne, WY

1999-2001 Program Consultant, Jail-Based Substance Abuse Treatment, Fremont County Detention Center, Lander, WY

2000-2001 Project Director, Fremont County Alcohol Crisis Center, Riverton, WY

2000-2001 Tribal Consultant, Substance Abuse and Criminal Justice, Wind River Indian Reservation, Ft. Washakie, WY

2000-2001 Drug Court Team Member, Adults and Juveniles, Tribal and District Courts, Fremont County, WY

2002-2004 Consultant, Demand Treatment and Fighting Back Initiatives,
Robert Wood Johnson Foundation

2004-2006 Consultant, Totah Behavioral Health Authority, Farmington, NM

(Resume "ignore", add "alert")

[Blackhatjack]

47. So you violated your own pronouncement about placing me on 'ignore' ... that builds credibility...

And you have no opinions based on facts or links --only a constant referral to your 'credentials' as an epidemiologist.

Do you do anything without touting your credentials? Like buy coffee or park your car?

I asked simple questions of you which you would not answer because you claim I am 'anonymous' and then try to pretend that somehow undermines the easily verifiable factual statements I made.

If you think I will give someone like you my email address think again.

How do we know that the cv you have posted here is your own? Since you are suspicious of anyone who does not 'play by the rules' of posting a profile at DU, you claim you cannot trust them.

Reality is that DU does NOT require a profile to listed, and DU does NOT verify anyone's identity that does post a profile.

And BTW... some very smart people do not have to whip out their credentials to be taken seriously in debating important topics of the day. Paper hanging on the wall will only get you so far in this world.

ANd you have yet to point out any statement in my original OP that was untrue.... having trouble getting around to it? Or have you placed me on ignore again?

[Political Heretic]

56. Here's an outside observer's take on this exchange. He's making you look like an idiot.

Quit now.

[Blackhatjack]

57. Maybe he will hear you ... since I might or might not be on his 'ignore' list. n/t

[tabasco]

48. I think it was really big of you not to cast asparagus

along with the dispersions.

[Mari333]

29. then it is probably a good idea

to come to terms with ones own physical demise at some point. if you can conquer that fear, you can conquer all the others. :)

[Obamanaut]

32. All these reports of flu and rumors of flu is torture. nt

[Psychic Consortium]

38. Wise leadership can make a difference.

Thank God for Obama.

[Liberal_in_LA]

46. yep

[Synicus Maximus]

49. Actually there will be another flu pandemic.

There have been 3 flu pandemics every century for the last 300 years. So the odds of having another, especially considering the current ability of people to travel and the density of populations, is almost certain. Will the current flu be it, who hows? It will happen sooner or later.

[Blackhatjack]

50. Exactly. Can't figure out why some people get so bent out of shape to be reminded of it.

Some of the posters here are delusional when it comes to not wanting anyone to remind the public of possible threats to their well-being.

Next thing you know they will want to eliminate tornado watches.

[bluedawg12]

52. This is supported by the Obama administration, this is NOT shrub

I don't understand why some think they would politicize this?

[bluedawg12]

53. This is supported by the Obama administration, this is NOT shrub

I don't understand why some think they would politicize this?

[Texasgal]

51. This is why people need to

follow basic hygiene protocol ALL of the time not just when the media breaks a scare.

The FLU killed 36,000 Americans last year, apparently many did not listen.

Wash your hands frequently and stay away from people that seem symptomatic.

I blame the media 100% for these latest "freak" out. The flu KILLS. All strains KILL.

Jaysus.

[Blackhatjack]

55. "Thinking the Unthinkable: Six (Uncomfortable) Questions about the Swine Flu Outbreak" LINK

This excellent article addresses the concerns I raised in the OP and examines other issues which we all need to consider. Sobering as to the logistics of addressing a pandemic with the present level of preparedness.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/ben-sherwood/thinking-the-unthinkable_b_192055.html

Thinking the Unthinkable: Six (Uncomfortable) Questions about the Swine Flu Outbreak

"The word pandemic comes from Greek roots meaning "all the people." Not surprisingly, the first known medical reporter to file a story about a flu epidemic was Hippocrates around 412 BC. For centuries, flu disasters have struck just as naturally and inevitably as tsunamis, earthquakes, and hurricanes. Indeed, over the past 300 years, there have been 10 major flu pandemics (an average of 22 years apart), according to the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP) at the University of Minnesota. Experts believe we're well overdue for another pandemic."

SKIP

"No one in the world wishes or wants this swine flu outbreak to morph into a full-fledged pandemic with mass casualties. But it's absolutely essential to think the unthinkable and, given the nature of a pandemic threat, to be as well prepared and self-reliant as possible.

From The Washington Post online, Dr. Osterholm gets the last words: "The potential for pandemic influenza to be a catastrophic event in our human history is just too great of a risk for us to wait until the night before to get prepared. While this may all sounds scary to those reading this, our job in public health today is not to scare you out of your wits, but to scare you into your wits. We need you to let your federal, state, and local leaders, including those both elected and in the private sector, know that planning at the international, national and local level must be one of our highest priorities."