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If Texas Was 5 States - Results?

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tomm2thumbs Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-26-09 12:35 AM
Original message
If Texas Was 5 States - Results?
Edited on Sun Apr-26-09 12:49 AM by tomm2thumbs
The website FiveThirtyEight.com has a great piece on the possible results of breaking Texas into 5 states - counter to the secession concept which is illegal. Posting for the curious at heart.

Nate Silver who has been on Countdown, etc, is the guy who most closely predicted the outcome of this past election and is a numbers-cruncher whiz. It's pretty interesting stuff how the votes and electoral college would be altered. (link below)



http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/04/messing-with-texas.html

added a shortened version of his summary below:

Net Effects on Balance of Power

If Texas were divided into five states, its number of senators would increase from two to ten, and its number of electoral votes from 34 to 42.

The senate seats in New Texas would most likely be split, while on average the Democrats would stand to pick off one of the four Senate seats between Trinity and Gulfland. This would give them a total of 4 seats to the Republicans' 6, a net loss of two seats that is no worse than the 2-0 disadvantage they are operating from currently. However, the shift in the senatorial balance of power would be slightly unfavorable to the Democrats overall, as the eight new senators created would increase the number of votes required to break a filibuster to 65, leaving the Democrats two votes short of a filibuster-proof majority, even if they managed to add four senators from the region.

The effects on representation to the House would be relatively unchanged.

Overall, dividing Texas into five states would probably slightly hurt Democrats in the Senate while slightly helping them in the Electoral College. That's not much of a rationale for Republicans -- or anyone, really -- to mess with it.
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Norquist Nemesis Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-26-09 12:38 AM
Response to Original message
1. Gimme a C! Gimme an E! Gimme an N!
Gimme an SUS!
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flor de jasmim Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-26-09 12:38 AM
Response to Original message
2. 5 states = 10 U.S. senators (!)
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babylonsister Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-26-09 12:44 AM
Response to Reply #2
3. Whoa. Without the census helping? Or redistricting?
:wow:

Ooch! Send the bucks to Texas and let's turn it blue! I am in!


:D
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CaliforniaPeggy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-26-09 12:54 AM
Response to Original message
4. Seems to me...
Wouldn't it be more like "Divide and conquer"?

;)
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Skink Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-26-09 01:12 AM
Response to Original message
5. Central Texas to be named Gomer.
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northofdenali Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-26-09 01:21 AM
Response to Original message
6. Then..........
Alaska'd STILL be the largest state in the union (even if we choose to split in half)! :P
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Thothmes Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-26-09 06:44 AM
Response to Original message
7. Idle speculation
U.S.Consitution Article IV, Section 2, para 4 ";but no new State shall be formed or erected within the jurisdiction of any other State."
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pampango Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-26-09 07:02 AM
Response to Reply #7
8. What about West Virginia being formed from within the borders of Virginia? n/t
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Thothmes Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-26-09 07:32 AM
Response to Reply #8
9. The 13 counties that comprise West Virginia
seceded from the State of Virginia at the start of the Civil War. Virginia was in rebellion against the United States at that time. After establishing a government to govern those counties, they applied for admission to the Union. The constitutional issue was overlooked because of the Civil War. Don't think the issue of the creation of West Virginia during the war was ever tested in Federal Court, though I could be wrong.
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BlueCollar Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-26-09 08:45 AM
Response to Original message
10. Result - Increase in Chinese made flag sales...n/t
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AspenRose Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-26-09 09:06 AM
Response to Original message
11. That's pretty accurate
Especially from a social perspective. "Trinity" and "Gulfland" are more like the traditional south. "Plainland" is more like the midwest. As for New Texas, the Hill Country is the conservative stronghold that surrounds San Antonio and Austin. Although they'll never bring themselves to admit it, quite a few of those who live in the Hill Country are often "white flight" types who want to avoid the minority influences in San Antonio and Austin (and it's quite beautiful there as well). Were it not for the recent influx of conservatives moving in and settling on the North side of San Antonio, I'd be tempted to put Bexar County in the "El Norte" category. (They don't call San Antonio 'Monterrey North' for nothing.)

Texas is big enough to be complex in its demographics. Those who are not familiar with the state and would like to learn more about it would benefit from a breakdown like this.
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