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Now for my Debbie Downer moment: IIRC, the Great Influenza

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hedgehog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-26-09 04:04 PM
Original message
Now for my Debbie Downer moment: IIRC, the Great Influenza
Epidemic of 1918 began with a few cases in the summer, then seemed to go away, then came back like a hurricane.
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uppityperson Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-26-09 04:06 PM
Response to Original message
1. Goes to show that you just can never tell. Predictions are difficult.
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Taverner Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-26-09 04:07 PM
Response to Original message
2. Of course they didn't have Tamiflu back then
Or widespread antibiotics...

At least this one isn't antibiotic resistant (yet)
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Ladyhawk Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-26-09 04:09 PM
Response to Reply #2
3. Influenza A is a virus. It doesn't respond to antibiotics. nt
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hedgehog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-26-09 04:10 PM
Response to Reply #2
5. There is a lot of debate about what killed people back then. My guess
is that some people died in a day or so as a result of a massive immune system overreaction. Antibiotics wouldn't be of any help for those people. I think other people were taken out by secondary bacterial infections (pneumonia) while they were weakened by the influenza.That's where antibiotics would be a game changer.


Toss in that most people these days are better nourished, better housed, not over-worked and aren't carrying latent TB.
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MrsMatt Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-26-09 04:12 PM
Response to Reply #2
7. Influenza is a virus, so antibiotics are totally ineffective
and who knows if Tamiflu will be any real help - flu viruses are very good at mutating (that's why we have a different flu vaccine every year).
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depakid Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-26-09 04:39 PM
Response to Reply #7
15. Secondary bacterial infections killled a lot of people (and still do)
Edited on Sun Apr-26-09 04:41 PM by depakid
Check out the leading causes of death in 1916:

1. Diseases of the heart
2. Pneumonia (all forms) and influenza
3. Tuberculosis (all forms)
4. Nephritis (all forms)
5. Intracranial lesions of vascular origin
6. Cancer and other malignant tumors
7. Diarrhea, enteritis, and ulceration of the intestines
8, Accidents excluding motor-vehicle
9. Premature birth
10. Syphilis (all forms)

http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/dvs/lead1900_98.pdf

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Avalux Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-26-09 04:10 PM
Response to Original message
4. Actually, there were three waves.
A spring wave (started in March 1918) a fall wave and a third wave in the winter. Each one more lethal than the other. The genetic material we have is from the second wave, so we really don't know where/how it all started or the original strain's make-up. Still a lot of unanswered questions.

There are similarities between what's happening now and the pandemic of 1918 which is why I think the WHO and CDC are so concerned. Good article:

1918 Influenza: the Mother of All Pandemics

http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/eid/vol12no01/05-0979.htm

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hedgehog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-26-09 04:12 PM
Response to Reply #4
6. You should re-post that as an OP so I can give it a K&R!
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Avalux Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-26-09 04:20 PM
Response to Reply #6
11. OK - I just did.
Isn't the article fascinating? :hi:
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luvspeas Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-26-09 04:15 PM
Response to Original message
8. holy sh*t a FLU HURRICANE?????...
BONG! A Fox news alert...
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hedgehog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-26-09 04:17 PM
Response to Reply #8
9. Hey, it's Sunday, I'm too lazy to think up a better metaphor right now!
:)
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luvspeas Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-26-09 04:21 PM
Response to Reply #9
12. BONG! Fox news alert...
breaking news -
a blond intern is missing after she was swept away by a pig flu hurricane. It was also noted that she was not wearing underpants when she entered the hurricane. Pictures at the top of the hour.
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L0oniX Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-26-09 04:19 PM
Response to Original message
10. Take some puppy uppers and chill.
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hedgehog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-26-09 04:25 PM
Response to Reply #10
13. I'm a mother, it's in my contract that I'm required to worry!
The reason I posted this is that if this dies down, people shouldn't discount the hazard. A flu pandemic is like the Big One that California is waiting for. We know it's coming someday, but we don't know when.
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aquart Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-26-09 04:38 PM
Response to Reply #13
14. Exactly. Influenza is nothing to mess with.
If it comes to nothing? Fine. But with this going around, a very full social schedule this fall and winter is not the best idea. And colleges need to be sure as many classes as possible can convert to online if necessary.

There are contingency plans that need to be made everywhere.

Here's a question: what happens with a major flu epidemic in a major hurricane?

Sleep well.
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hedgehog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-26-09 04:40 PM
Response to Reply #14
16. You mean, with a lot of strangers forced into close quarters with limited
Edited on Sun Apr-26-09 04:41 PM by hedgehog
sanitation for a few days?

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