An important unstated probability about Specter. He probably won't run in 2010

[HamdenRice]

Contrary to what his statement says, I doubt he'll run in 2010

What few have mentioned is that Specter is a very sick man -- a very, very sick man in his late 70s. This may be his "getting right with the Lord" (or at least history) type farewell.

Even if he runs in 2010 -- and if he does, he'll be an 80 year old with a recurrent form of cancer -- the probability that he will serve out that term is minimal. Hodgkins has a high cure rate, but it, and the treatment, are pretty tough on an 80 year old guy.

I think he's being disingenuous and will not run in 2010. This may be about how he wants to spend his last two years in the Senate.

<edited for clarity>

[Enrique]

1. I think he did this because of 2010

calculated that this is the only way he can keep his seat.

[emulatorloo]

6. If you have been following the news, the RNC/GOP has been sh*tting on him

for a while now.

He was under tremendous pressure from McConnel and his shock troops.

The hate radio types singled him out for particularly viscious attack.

Specter has talked about that pressure, especially around the time of the stim vote.

Anyway, he has always had a mind of his own. If I was being treated the way he was treated, I would want out too.

As to 2010 - Toomey is a fringe candidate for a fringe party.

[ecstatic]

2. Yeah. Looking at him now

He makes McCain look young. He shouldn't run in '10.

[eleny]

3. You figure he'll just work for the health care package and tuck it into his legacy?

[HamdenRice]

4. It's a very big issue for him. nt

[Occam Bandage]

5. I don't know, man. Elderly Senators don't give up easy.

Strom Thurmond served until he was 100 years old. Robert Byrd seems determined to die in office. So was Ted Stevens, until he lost.

[HamdenRice]

7. Agreed. But they didn't have recurring cancer. nt

[gratuitous]

8. Whatever he does in 2010

He wasn't going to get the Republican nomination for his Senate seat. The Pennsylvania Republican party is solidly behind Toomey (Eschaton, based in Philly, has been following this for several months), and Senator Grandstand isn't polling even into the 40s against him. Specter can read a poll as well as anyone, and it's pretty clear that he wouldn't get out of the Republican primary next year.

I'd be very surprised if he decided not to run. His party switch is designed to get him to the general election by hook or by crook. I don't know if the Pennsylvania Democratic party has anyone who can beat Specter in a primary. His grandstand tactics have played very well for so long (promise one thing during the lead up to an issue, then skitter back to the safety of the default Republican position when it's time for a vote), that he continues to fool a lot of otherwise canny people. It's comforting to know that one of his protégés in the ersatz moderate mold, Gordon Smith, got handed his walking papers in 2008. Maybe Pennsylvania will finally tire of Specter's brand of politics and elect a real Democrat? We can hope.

[Freddie Stubbs]

9. Specter really enjoys being a Senator

He will likely die a Senator.

[MzNov]

10. I like the way you think . . .

it goes with my reasoning that he really should be retiring, but maybe just wants to stick it to the RePukes before he goes. Oh, a delicious political move. :bounce:

[ecstatic]

11. delete

delete

[librechik]

12. interesting point. Sestak may have a hope after all!

[Dogmudgeon]

13. Spector will leave the Senate in one of two ways:

1: Electoral loss.

2: Pine box.

#1 is now nearly impossible. More Democrats in PA like him than Republicans. His re-election is just about certain, and he just brought in 15-20% of the PA GOP in one fell swoop. The GOP, which ruled PA with an iron hand, is now broken.

#2 is possible for the reasons you proposed. But he is far from a very sick man. His remission from Non-Hodgkin's Lymphoma is excellent. I think he has at least another term in him.

But you are right, it's a tough disease. I think he will be leaving in the pine box.

--d!

[Gormy Cuss]

14. Eh, I thought that too. I'll still take two years of the old war horse counted as a Dem.

If he doesn't run next year he'll leave a Democratic seat in a state where there will be other strong Democratic contenders and that's a plus.