What is there 300 plus million people

[doc03]

in this country and they are going nuts about this F----g Swine Flu. You know there has most likely been more people murdered in this country this week than people killed by the Swine Flu in the entire world. We need some football player or other famous person to knock someone off then they will forget all about the Swine Flu. How about maybe another young pretty blond girl to come up missing.

[Danger Mouse]

1. When people start dying will you take it seriously?

[Zywiec]

2. He doesn't have the logic to figure it out. n/t

[BeFree]

33. Well

He did write:
"You know there has most likely been more people murdered in this country this week than people killed by the Swine Flu in the entire world."

Which is logical. Very true, and probably will be true for quite sometime.

[Zywiec]

42. True

but can you see a situation where the murder rate will grow exponentially out of control like a spreading virus?

:shrug:

[sam sarrha]

3. no.. only when its their family will it matter to cynics

[marketcrazy1]

7. thousands die from the flu

every year.................. it would take ALOT of deaths to scare me,, and NO that is not what I want to see but it sure seems like some cant wait for it so their panicky nonsense will be confirmed......

[RaleighNCDUer]

14. 36,000 people die in the US of normal strains of flu, which have an

average mortality rate of .5%. This flu has already shown itself to have a mortality rate of 6%. That is 3x the mortality rate of the 1918 'Spanish' flu, which killed between 20 and 40 million people worldwide.

But don't bother with that. It's all hysterics, after all.

[NeedleCast]

21. Source?

From what I've seen, confirmed lab deaths from Swine Flu are in the 20-30 deaths range while another 150-200 "might" be from Swine Flu.

[Hannah Bell]

81. since there are no hard numbers of confirmed cases v. confirmed deaths, i can't see

why people keep repeating 7% as though it were some kind of gospel.

In the US, the death rate = 0% of something like 64 confirmed cases.

Most of whom are fully recovered after a "mild" flu.

[NeedleCast]

10. No. People die of Flu

As of today, Swine Flu has killed far less than typical strains of flu.

Don't let that slow down your hand wrigning though, since you seem determained to be frightened.

[nadinbrzezinski]

15. 7% in mexico is higher but that's ok

and if we have the two confirmed in the US, that is 3.2%, against slightly higher

Oh did I mention the two in LA were 33 and 45?

[NeedleCast]

19. Oh love this argument too

Because I'm not taking this seriously I must hate brown people. Seriously, cram it with walnuts.

Wow, two people might die of flu here in the US. If another 100 died today, it will just pass the number of people who will die of standard strains of flu, on average.

So if two die, my chances of dying of Swine Flu in the United States will be roughly 1:150,000,000.

I like those odds.

[nadinbrzezinski]

22. No the argument is that lethality of this bug is higher than REGULAR FLU

get it now?

ThAT IS A SCIENCE BASED NOT JUST A STUPID OPINION I THINK THIS IS HOW THE WORLD WORKS BASED ARGUMENT

I said it yesterday... no longer will I ever say that Republicans are ignorant, so are democrats

[NeedleCast]

23. Source?

I've seen a lot of numbers that suggest 150-200 deaths "might" be attribtued to Swine Flu. I've also seen numbers that suggest that the number of confirmed deaths is in the 20s to 30s. And, not to hate on Mexico, but we're not talking about a country with the most bang up health care in the world either. In some areas its essentially non-existant so I'm not surpised the morbidity rate is higher there. So far, in the US, it remains 0%. Pretty solid recovery rate, although you've suggested two "might" die.

[nadinbrzezinski]

25. WHO, mexican ministry of health et al

by the way the numbers are higher than 150 at the moment, try to keep up

[Hannah Bell]

34. confirmed deaths due to this bug in mexico = 7-20 as of yesterday,

per WHO (says 7) & mexican health minister (says 20).

more "suspected" - but not confirmed by lab test.

every case in the US thus far reportedly "mild".

[NeedleCast]

36. NPR says 149 as of about 15 minutes ago

So it looks like I'm pretty well up to speed, but thanks for your concern.

[nadinbrzezinski]

40. They are off then as this is a DAY OFF

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5gfYcVCw5PiKbk5yaX7JaF9NqhPygD97QV9Q00

[NeedleCast]

41. NPR posted 149 about 30-45 minutes ago

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=103562909

[nadinbrzezinski]

45. They are off, just like the CDC they update the data every 24 hours or so

You'd know that if you were really paying attention

Look I get the denial ok

This is a scary story for many people

But it has a higher lethality... and the US CDC director, Dr Besser, expects to see DEATHS

Not only that, we may have the first ones now

Now I will not "convince you"

And lord knows that those of us who are following this CAREFULLY cannot really talk to most of you

THis reminds me of the economy is not that bad

Same kind of denial

[NeedleCast]

53. Yeah, sorry, I'm really not paying that much attention

Got shit to do and everything. I know folk like you are watching this with an eagle eye for me and will post a thread every 15 to 30 minutes while rubbing your hands together waiting for your body count.

It's a scary story for many people in the same way that terrorist attacks are a scary story for many people...because many people are easily scared. As I've said in other threads, 56% of Americans said they were "somewhat" or "very" scared that they would die or be harmed in a terrorist attack shortly after 9/11 despite figures showing the likelihood of death by terrorist attack at 1 in 11.3 billion world-wide. People are scared because the news told them to be scared.

I'm not in denial, I'm just capable of doing simple math. The transmission rate of this strain of flu seems pretty low even if the death rate is considerably higher than normal flu (and that's still up for debate as far as I'm concerned). With the flu spreading at a staggering rate of about 20 cases per day, and maybe, possibly two deaths per four days, the entire country will be wiped out in 150 million years.

So, you go on following it carefully. The US CDC director expects to see deaths. Okay. What does that mean? I expect there will be a few deaths during the normal course of DC rush hour on a daily basis but that doesn't keep me out of my car.

You can talk to me about it if you want, but I'm still not going to buy into the hype and yes, there is a shitload of media HYPE about this. One national news station said last night that there "could be tens of millions of deaths" from Swine flu. Others are using typical fear tactics every time someone in a state catches a sniffle. There's a difference between monitoring something, and blowing it hugely out of proportion and that's exactly what the media has done and they do it every single year with whatever new buzz-word virus they can latch onto.

[nadinbrzezinski]

56. You think we want a body count?

that is SICK!

Here is a free clue, for some of us this is an ACTUAL BONA FIDE INTEREST ON WHAT POTENTIALLY COULD BE A CRITICAL STORY with major effects in the economy (you know that recovery don't you), the political landscape (The PRI lost to the pan due to the Mexico City Quake, but I am sure you know that, hardly)

And mostly due to EMPATHY to other people

Now as to the hype, you confuse HYPE with information

That speaks MORE about you than anything else

As I said yesterday... it is not only the RIGHT who are willfully ignorant, it is Americans who are

[NeedleCast]

67. You can keep all your free clues and your free snark

Keep all your little petty insults.

Yes, there could be major effects on the economy due to hype. I wouldn't be surprised at all.

Hundreds of thousands of people die every day from a wide range of things. I'm sure they all have loved ones who are upset but I really can't be expected to have empathy for them all on anything more than a general basis, otherwise I'd spend all my time mourning the tragic deaths of people I don't know.

The MSN is not providing information, it's providing hype, as has been pointed out over and over. Like I said, yesterday a major news network said "tens of millions of people could die!" Others said it was "spreading rapidly around the globe" when in reality there are probably less than 150 cases outside of Mexico. Other networks are omiously turning any country that reports a possible case of swine flu bright red or posting little bio-hazard markers on their up to the second maps.

Maybe it does speak volumes about me. It says that I'm logically weighting the odds vs my personal level of panic. It says that 65 cases in four days doesn't give many any cause for alarm because the chance of me dying from swing flu is significantly lower than my chance of being struck by lightning.

So you go on calling me ignorant all you want. The feeling is mutual, I assure you.

[nadinbrzezinski]

70. Hype, the effect on the world wide economy (Possible) is hype?

okay, off to the ignore pile with the willfully ignorant you go

[NeedleCast]

73. All righty then

You can't handle different opinions so you'll insult me until I go away and if that doesn't work you'll take your ball and go home.

I guess that's one way to handle it.

An no, I didn't say the effect on the world wide ecnomy WAS hype. I said its caused by hype.

And I'm right.

[RaleighNCDUer]

89. Science is not opinion, and in the 21st century epidemiology is a science.

There IS a potential for tens of millions of deaths - the progress of the illness is more like the Spanish flu than any flu epidemic in the past century. It doesn't appear to be quite as readily transmissable as the 1918 flu, at this point, but it does appear to be more lethal.

It is probable that this outbreak will burn itself out - most do. But it has spread outside its original location, touching on much of the northern hemisphere - where the flu season is ending, fortunately - as well as the southern hemisphere where it is just beginning.

You do understand, don't you, that the CDC considers it a threat - the CDC is not just a bunch of anonymous bloggers whipping up panic.

As for the hype - which will have more effect? A lot of people talking about an epidemic that fizzles, or an epidemic that kills 3 million Americans?

[Forkboy]

68. No sicker than your implication that he didn't care if Mexicans died.

[nadinbrzezinski]

74. Did not imply that

but now that you mention it, many people in this country are damned insular and don't realize how events somewhere else will affect them

This is one of those cases.. by the by

[Forkboy]

76. You most certainly did imply it.

"7% in mexico is higher but that's ok"

[nadinbrzezinski]

77. Try to read in context

Speaking of LETHALITY RATES

In mexico they are at about 7%, (I am rounding up)

Normal flu death rates are 0.05%

In the states from the info we have RIGHT NOW they are at 3.2%

That was the point I was making

Now if you or this other person read it as she doesn't care?

I don't know if she cares, nor do I care.

Clear enough?

GOOD

[Hannah Bell]

78. In the states right now the rate is ZERO. Quit spreading misinformation.

[NeedleCast]

79. In the State, the Morbidity rate is zero percent

Not that this is going to stop you from pouncing on any possible statistic to get that body count up.

[Forkboy]

80. I got the context quite clearly.

"...but that's ok."

Who thinks it's ok in your mind? The poster you were speaking to? You? The rest of DU?

If you were speaking of just lethality rates you could have easily presented the info on the 7% minus the "but that's ok." But you didn't. As I said, you most certainly did imply it.

Clear enough?

GOOD.

[nadinbrzezinski]

82. Ok you choose to read what you want

fine by me

Nothing I can do about that

Suffice it to say that was not my intent...

Happy now? You should have gotten that a couple posts ago

So let me rephrase this

THIS WAS NOT MY INTENT TO IMPLY ANYTHING

[Name removed]

57. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Name removed]

59. Deleted sub-thread

Sub-thread removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[NeedleCast]

61. I'm glad I'm not the only person to notice this n/t

[Hannah Bell]

64. "denial"? Every US case labeled "mild" by CDC/WHO.

Speaking of the economy, I thought the bank bailout was supposed to prevent imminent meltdown?

[Hannah Bell]

43. those are "suspected," not confirmed by lab test. it was the same number yesterday.

i'm sorry that npr is not careful with their reporting.

[NeedleCast]

44. No, I understand that

[Hannah Bell]

48. sorry, misread you.

[marketcrazy1]

29. how do you KNOW

it`s higher? people are using the Mexico numbers to extrapolate the mortality rate, those numbers are unreliable and incomplete... but if it feeds the hysteria knock yourself out!!

[nadinbrzezinski]

31. We have two presumed suspects RIGHT NOW IN THE US

that places it at a more conformable 3.2 lethally rate, FAR HIGHER than the normal flu (0.5%)

It also affected a 33 and 45 year old

Oh and using the numbers you have is STANDARD practice but I am positive you knew that

Ok I have to ask, do you also deny the data on global warming?

[marketcrazy1]

37. I dont deny data

I Analise it.......... when the Data is incomplete a full analysis is not possible.

[NeedleCast]

38. Here's the Data

From AP Article Here: http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5g6xqdZJFprzVSLufpFk3KqTWvi-QD97RM0703

A Bellflower hospital reported the death of a 33-year-old Long Beach man who was brought in Saturday with symptoms resembling swine flu, coroner's spokesman Craig Harvey told the newspaper.

The man was taken to the hospital complaining of shortness of breath and lymphoma, a type of cancer, and doctors later diagnosed him with pneumonia, Harvey said.

The other death was a 45-year-old La Mirada man who died April 22 at Coast Plaza Doctor's Hospital in Norwalk, according to the Times. Doctors said the man died of pneumonia, but the county health department refused to accept the death certificate and referred the case to the coroner's office, the Times


So one, the 33-year old appears to have additionally had cancer and "flu like symptoms"

The other apparently died of penumonia, but the county health department refused to accept the death certficate. mmmkay.

[nadinbrzezinski]

39. It is the data you have... and it is not incomplete

free clue

When ANY health care system gets overwhelmed it goes into presumptive diagnosis over definite

but I am also positive you knew that

Yes, it will happen here too

[Hannah Bell]

47. do you have some evidence l.a. county health system is "overwhelmed"?

[marketcrazy1]

54. one of the two deaths in cali

has been found NOT to have been caused by swine flu, still waiting on the other.................. I guess that puts the mortality rate at a much more comfortable 1.85 percent and when the OTHER death is found to be unrelated to swine flu the mortality rate will be ZERO! ( in the U.S. )

[nadinbrzezinski]

60. And when they do? After all Doctor Besser was clear on this

You did listen to him brief today on the CDC, didn't you?

[marketcrazy1]

65. no i did not

I am not all that concerned i have never had the flu or a flu shot and have not had a cold in years. I think this whole thing is being exaggerated. dont bother with a reply. I am not coming back to this thread.. be well!!!

[nadinbrzezinski]

66. I will bother with the reply

ignorance is bliss

[Hannah Bell]

71. here, you'll be happy to know one of those has been confirmed NOT to have had the swine flu.

http://www.pasadenastarnews.com/news/ci_12245646

"The virus was ruled out as a cause in the death of a 45-year-old La Mirada man, said Craig Harvey of the Los Angeles County Department of Coroner. The death of a 33-year-old Long Beach man was still being investigated."

PS: the 33-yr-old is the one who had lymphoma.

On edit: now BOTH confirmed: DID NOT HAVE FLU.

[RaleighNCDUer]

27. Not very good with numbers, are you. nt

[Tangerine LaBamba]

55. ::: cough, cough :::::

Oh, sorry.

I like that "cram it with walnuts" thing. Elegant touch. I'm stealing it for future use, OK?

Some people ::::: aaaaaaaaahchoooooooooooo ::::: just can't be happy unless everyone joins in their hysteria, no matter how ill-founded it is.

Maybe they just enjoy being hysterical?

:::: hack, hack :::::

What's not getting a lot of air play is that the vast majority of these SWINE FLU VICTIMS are not even hospitalized. It seems that they just hit the sack, stay hydrated, take Tylenol, watch Jerry Springer, sleep, and get better.

How DARE they?

:::::: sniffle, sniffle ::::::::

[NeedleCast]

69. I stole it from Homer Simpson...can't claim credit.

I know it's not a nice thing to say. The people who seem to be constantly posting OPs about the return of West Ni..I mean SARS...I mean Avian F...I mean Swine Flu - sorry about that - have that hysteria thing in common and seem to quickly become abusive to anyone who refuses to see Swine Flu as the new black death.

I went to my urologist Monday as I continue to battle my kideny stone, "Dave" (I named him, he's been with me awhile now). He said that D.C. area emergency rooms were packed all weekend with people with everything from the common cold to seasonal allergies all going bonkers because they were sure they had swine flu.

I'm not completly discounting this either. It seems to maybe have a high morbidity rate in Mexico but I wonder if that's not because of general health care and immunization conditions there.

Well, 5:30. Time to go count the number of people in surgical masks on the Metro.

[Hannah Bell]

28. one had lymphoma.

[11 Bravo]

52. Thousands of people die from the flu every year.

Tell me, do you abandon you car beside the road before the first snowflake falls?

[KamaAina]

85. People have started dying

but they're Mexican, so they don't really count. :sarcasm:

[nadinbrzezinski]

4. We MIGHT have the first two deaths today

in LA...

I know people die from the flue every year (a right wing meme), but hey

You mileage will vary

[Zywiec]

8. If they would open the flue before starting a fire

they probably would be safe...

:hi:

[marketcrazy1]

9. WTF!

(a right wing meme)??? must we reduce EVERYTHING to politics!! thats just fucking stupid!!!!!!!!!!

[nadinbrzezinski]

11. You are right then, an ignorant meme... my bad

[NeedleCast]

13. That should be a new logical falicy

Declaring that the opposing argument is a left wing or right wing talking point is a sorry excuse for not being able to make an argument.

[Two Americas]

32. not necessarily

If a talking point advances a right wing agenda (as opposed to promoting Republican party partisan gains) then that is something that is worthwhile to discuss. So many right wing ideas have been re-packaged as "liberal" or "progressive" - and now we have people arguing that merely changing the initial after a politician's name is sufficient cause for supporting them - that the subject is very important.


...

[Tangerine LaBamba]

62. If it's good eough for Michelle Bachman, dammit,

it's good enough for every other Chicken Little.

And I stand by that statement :::: cough, sneeze, hack, sniffle, sniffle, cough, sneeze, cough ::::::

[hedgehog]

5. Step away from the television. If you read publications like the Scientific

American or John Barry's The Great Influenza, you understand that a flu pandemic is one of those natural events like a hurricane or earthquake that is bound to happen someday. There are signs that today may be the day. On the other hand, this may fade away to nothing. It's proper to make what preparations you can without getting hysterical about it. It's the nature of television news, especially the 24 hour cable channels and local stations to go nuts about whatever the story of the day is. If you have access to alternative sources of information, you will generally find that the television coverage is inaccurate and incomplete.

[azmouse]

6. I would say the coverage is a bit overboard

and it's probably leading to a sense of panic.

Stay alert, avoid crowds when possible... and most of avoid the news if it's making you unnecessarily nervous.

[Iggo]

12. A bit off-topic: There's a guy at my work...

...who throws around this 35k number for annual flu deaths.

As in, "Thirty-five thousand Americans die of the flu every year."

Is he about right? Is he off by a bit? Is he way off?

[marketcrazy1]

16. he is about right

with those numbers...............

[NeedleCast]

17. About Right

[nadinbrzezinski]

18. Yeah but the death rate is 0.5% for regular strains

this shows a 7% in mexico (I am rounding up) and 3.2 if the two LA cases are correct in the US

You can do math? This is why you should be concerned

Not panicked, concerned

[RaleighNCDUer]

20. If he is off, it is because he is low-balling it.

It's more like 39,000.

Which with normal flu strains is @.5% mortality.

Avian flu, with very low transmissability, has @60% mortality - and THAT is why people are scared of it.

This flu, with a relatively HIGH transmissability, has @6% mortality - and THAT is why people are scared of it.

The spanish flu, with extremely high transmisability, had @2% mortality. It killed about 40 million in 18 months.

[Iggo]

30. Ah, okay. So it's totals versus mortality rates.

Thanks guys. Now I get it.

[Ilsa]

50. If they are almost all very aged with other health problems, it could be

an overstatement of real cause of death. But yeah, we're off topic.

[Avalux]

24. We are on Day 6 of an outbreak that isn't slowing down.

Do you know how many will become infected, how many may die, when it will end? Your dismissal of what's going on is premature.

[ecstatic]

26. We're less than a week into this, correct? We're not yet sure

how many people will end up getting it. It could be something or nothing but it's too soon to tell.

[LanternWaste]

35. Maybe you are misinterpreting prudence...

Maybe you are misinterpreting mere prudence of others as "going nuts"?

[readmoreoften]

51. Thank you. I'm not quite sure what qualifies as "going nuts" anymore.

I don't think the CDC and WHO are ignorant of the death count of other viruses. Moreover, I'm concerned about the lack of interest in deaths of persons in Mexico. It's as if they don't much matter.

[nadinbrzezinski]

58. Going nuts apparently is paying attention to the story and readying the news

WHO KNEW?

As to lack of empathy, you are damn right

[Tangerine LaBamba]

46. Shark attacks ............

We need some more really grisly shark attacks. The young blond thing going missing is always good, too.

A pregnancy. Maybe Cher? Octomom? Brangelina adopts again?

I do think, though, that your being so sensible and sane about this Swine Flu thing is downright unAmerican. What are you doing - taking away the rights of the sheep to be hysterical?

Jeez.

Why do you hate America?

[NeedleCast]

49. I Heard Faux News is breeding sharks to place just off the east coast

and on slow news days will use their news-copters to chum the waters...

That's just what I heard though.

[Tangerine LaBamba]

63. Don't tell Michelle Bachman -

She'll claim it's a liberal plot.

Then she'll sneeze and cough, and all bets will be off ...................

[NeedleCast]

72. I Said Yesterday we needed to beat them to the punch on this

What's left of the liberal media should have taken off on some wild tanget and claimed this was a genetically engineered virus designed to kill heterosexuals.

Wouldn't be true of course, but as long as the right wing media is just going to make shit up, we might as well play that game too.

Plus, can't you see how much fun this would play with Beck/Hannity/et.al.?

Beck: "The liberals have admitted they made the virus specifically to destory the American family and to force males to pee sitting down!" ::cry::

[Tangerine LaBamba]

87. Not bad ............

Not bad at all.

But, you know, Michelle Bachman and Rush Limbaugh and Michelle Malkin have set the craziness bar so high, I wonder if we could come up with anything adequate?

[Aethertek]

75. Fear

Oh my god I smoke, I have a sinus infection that I cant seem to rid of(from a chicken plant no less) & I live amongst people of mexican heritage.
Oh god I'm gonna die. EEK ACK Ohno's

LOL

Damn people get a grip, every body gotta die sometime, today's as good a day as tomorrow.
Nobody gets out of life alive, that's all there is to it, your all gonna die, its just a matter of when.

Been clinically dead once already during this life, no big deal, you live & then you die.
Few get to choose the how & when but I believe it's more important how you die than when.

So are you going to die in fear or are you going to die in peace.

RIP

Kevin~

[doc03]

83. I remember the Swine Flu pandemic

of the 70's it turned out to be much hand ringing about nothing. More people died from the vaccine than the Flu. Then we had the Avian Flu a couple years ago, didn't happen. The problem today is these cable news channels, they have 24 hours of time to fill. I watched a few minutes of Mad Money and what was Crammer talking about? What stocks will benefit from a Swine flu pandemic. Like I said we need some celebrity to come up missing I'll vote for Tom Cruise that would get people off the Swine flu story.

[DainBramaged]

84. Well done doc

wwweeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee

[Mike 03]

86. It's okay so long as they only die in Mexico.

On Edit.

Sorry, in this day and age I better put that sarcasm smilie here, or else someone will not perceive that I'm being sarcastic.

:sarcasm:

[JonLP24]

88. I know exactly what you mean - in terms of what is reported and what isn't reported

You seem to be right on about your description of the newsmedia. Chandra Levy is still on the news and there are still many missing people and cold cases in the DC metro area that you never hear about.