Specter's departure hints at a larger political realignment.

[Pab Sungenis]

For those who know the history of the two major political parties currently operating in our country, the defection of Arlen Specter to the Democrats is just one of the many signs that within the next twelve years, or as few as eight, we're probably going to see a huge re-alignment of parties here in the U.S., which could see the death of not just one of the parties, but the permanent division of the other as well.

The Democratic Party can trace its history all the way back to 1796, when Jefferson's loose confederation of anti-Federalist forces came together as the Democratic-Republican party, but the party we're members of today is very different from Jefferson's. I'm not even talking about ideological shifts like the Democrats went through in 1948, 1968, and countless other times. In fact, the Democratic Party broke into two separate factions on two different occasions. The first of which created the Whigs, and the second of which helped create the Republican Party.

In 1820, the Federalist Party -- the party of Washington and Adams -- finally disintegrated during the "Era Of Good Feelings" created by the Presidency of James Monroe. Before that, the Federalists had been restricted to being essentially a regional party dominating in New England and more conservative parts of the Northeast. (In fact, the last Federalist elected official would be a Governor of Delaware in the mid 1820's, after the national party was long gone.) Since nature abhors a vacuum, and the Democratic-Republicans were too broad and diverse a party to survive as the sole political party in the country, the Democratic-Republicans split into two factions, one following Andrew Jackson and John Calhoun as the "Democrats" and the other following John Q. Adams and Henry Clay as the "National Republicans," eventually to become the "Whig" party.

In the late 1850's, as the debate over slavery reached the boiling point, the Whig party (whose philosophy was pretty much a desire to please everyone) fell apart, unable to reconcile its pro-slavery and anti-slavery factions. The anti-slavery Whigs joined with the abolitionis wing of the Democrats to form a new party, the "Republican" party. The pro-slavery Whigs floundered and died out with the Civil War, with southern Whigs uniting behind the Democrats during and after Reconstruction.

Now, with the overwhelming Democratic victories in 2006 and 2008, the Republicans are being pushed further and further into the role of a regional party with waning power. Losing Arlen Specter to the Democrats today shows just how tenuous the remaining Republican coalition actually is, especially in areas that helped put Barack Obama in the White House. It's not unreasonable to say that the Republican party, as we know it, could cease to exist within eight years.

The question is what happens then? Will the Republicans rebuild as they did in the 1940's and 1950's with Wendell Willkie and Dwight Eisenhower, acknowledging and adopting the new Democratic-built status quo but arguing that they can do it better? Or will they stay on the same self-destructive course they're on today? If they do, then all bets are off.

If the Republicans do self-destruct, however, it is not necessarily a good thing for the Democrats. Remember that our own coalition is also very tenuous (the fact that we're cheering the aisle-crossing of a Republican Senator who actually OPPOSES the most important parts of the Democratic agenda should make that clear). And just as much as in 1824, political nature still abhors a vacuum. If the Republicans disappear, then the different factions within the Democratic party will see their lines become even clearer and more sharply defined. Senators like Specter, Evan Bayh, and Bill Nelson could join with the more "moderate" elements from the disintegrated Republicans and either form a new party or completely take over the Democrats, which would lead to the Progressive caucus leaving and forming a party of their own, or joining with one of the current left-leaning parties like the Greens.

The next several years will be key. Will the Obama Administration be a second "Era of Good Feelings?" Or will it prove to be an unfulfilled dream like the Kennedy and Johnson administrations were? Will the Republicans embrace the more popular Democratic policy proposals (like Health Care and a fairer tax structure)? Or will they re-entrench and stick to their own failed policies? If the former, then we can look for a more moderate Republican party -- like the one from the 40's and 50's -- posing a real threat to the Democrats electorally but not ideologically. If the latter, it's likely that neither of the two parties, as we currently recognize them, will be on the national ballot come 2020.

[Psychic Consortium]

1. Republican party ends? Dem party splits into two??? nt

[Tempest]

3. I see both splitting

Progressives and Democrats, conservatives and Republicans.

The current progressive and conservative parties will be the same as what we see now, the Democrats and Republicans will see some co-mingling.

[Psychic Consortium]

6. Also a possibility. nt

[NewJeffCT]

2. I agree that if the Republicans self-destruct

that a lot of moderate Dems would form a new party with the more moderate Republicans. However, where does that leave a majority of today's Republican party? Most of them are way to the right of Nixon and even Goldwater.

And, I would think a new party formed would be more in line with the DLC, which would be moderate on social & environmental issues. In the long run, that would be better for the country if one party was centrist and the other was center-left, rather than having a centrist Dem party like now, and a far right Republican party.

[Kingofalldems]

4. What happened to that permanent repub majority

promised to us by that criminal doughboy?

[hvn_nbr_2]

7. It commits hydro kari in Grover Norquist's bathtub. nt

[zipplewrath]

5. All very true

To some degree we are seeing the playing out of a process that started roughly 50 years ago. The democrats were an odd coalition of southern racists and northern union elements. The GOP was the party of banks and business. With FDR, the beginning of the end came around as his national agenda started to blur the lines between states and state citizenship. WW II and the massive dislocation of people around the country advanced this nationalization of the population. By 1948 or so Truman is integrating the army, and the civil rights movement is getting started. The problem is for the democrats, they are the party of segregation in the south. They go through a purification of their own, forcing southern parties to integrate. Out come the dixiecrats/southern democrats and split the party. LBJ pushes through the Voting Rights act and the democrats begin to lose the "solid south". Over the next 20 years the social conservatives move to the GOP and ultimate gain the support of the "Reagan Democrats". This includes a fair number of union members who are relatively socially conservative. It culminates in '94 with the loss of congress by the democrats. Upon losing it, many southern "democrats" switch parties. They had only been democrats to gain access to majority positions on committees. Thus the large scale shift to the right is complete.

But it is also false. It is not nearly as conservative as the politics suggests. Reagan wins in '80, but can rarely turn that into victories in congress. Even the win in '94 is due in large part to certain issues like gun control and a poor handling of a nationalized health care attempt. And the switch of a large number of southern congressmen is merely a "pent up demand" that not only had existed for the better part of 2 decades, but was already on decline. By the end of the '90s Gingrich is gone, and the GOP is having trouble hanging on to congress. 2000 begins with Gore getting more votes than Bush but as we know, that result is confused and the GOP gets control of the White House. With 9/11 they are able to turn these "false" wins into sustaining a GOP majority, but it is masking huge trends that are building to bring them down. The country is not as conservative as they want it to be, and they are seeing trends in demographics which are consistently going against them. Younger voters are turning off to the GOP. Non whites are turning away. Even evangelicals are beginning to move away from their "first commandment" approach and starting to embrace "second commandment" issues like care for the weak and for the planet earth.

By the time Katrina comes around, it's all over. They can't hold on to power any more. Not only can they not hang onto power, but they have been ignoring the general trends in the population which have been away from their core issues for the better part of 2 decades. They've merely been getting along on accidents of history and a bit of "issue stealing" from the dems including education and a medicare prescription benefit. The economic collapse only adds to their woes and they find comfort that it came at potentially the worst time for them. They ignore that regardless of that, they were going to lose, it only helped them lose big.

And the process isn't over. As the original post suggests, the massive decline in the GOP may continue, but much like the coalition between the northern and southern democrats, the current coalition that is building which now includes Spector, cannot last. Part of the accident of history in 2000 was Nader. The same trends the GOP have been ignoring have been ignored by the democrats and the progressive/liberal members aren't going to be happy. They want wars stopped, people convicted of torture, clean air, alternative energy, and nationalized health care. They won't get it all, and what they do get will be compromised to a degree they won't like. The result almost assuredly will be that many will force a strong move towards the left, leaving behind a vacuum of moderation upon which the GOP is almost assuredly to pounce.

And the sad part is that it will merely start the same cycle again. Doesn't anyone notice we always end up where the progressives and liberals lead us, even when they don't control congress, or the White House? Doesn't anyone notice that the Army and the country are now integrated? That's the issue that split up the democratic party before. Doesn't anyone notice that Gay equality is coming? Doesn't anyone notice that the Great Society programs are still around, and the GOP added a medicare drug benefit to it? Doesn't anyone notice that each year, more and more americans have government supported/funded/backed health care? Doesn't anyone notice that the air is cleaner, the water is cleaner, there is more and more protected lands every year? Liberals may not be perfect, but predominately what they are guilty of is being ahead of their time. The GOP seems to never notice that their time is over.