Republican Party: Phoenix or Dodo?

[cali]

Poll question: Republican Party: Phoenix or Dodo?

So in the face of Arlen's switch, is the republican party dead as a dodo or will it rise from the flames in 2010 and/or 2012?

[margotb822]

1. I don't think they're done yet

I think there will be a split and/or the moderates will take back control. But, I would say that they won't be likely to make any gains in 2010. And depending on how the census goes, maybe not in 2012 either.

[CaliforniaPeggy]

2. Looks dead to me!

:woohoo: :woohoo:

[BlooInBloo]

3. heh. Respondents have such short memories.

[Ishoutandscream2]

16. Yeah, those bastards have a way of coming back

I wouldn't put them in the category of the Whig Party yet.

[lob1]

4. Not a dodo.

The republican party is like a Thanksgiving turkey that's basting itself for dinner.

[Forkboy]

5. I'm pretty sure after Watergate a lot of people felt they were dead too.

6 years later we started a 12 year rule of Republicans. We count them out at our own peril.

[jacksonian]

15. yes, but Watergate was really one man's scandal

and the Repug party was a lot more national and moderate. Still, Watergate beat them down for the rest of the 70's.

Their current problems are much more central to who they are as a politcal force. The rank and file is out of touch, moreso than any major party since the 19th century. They are losers and their base wants nothing except to go down the path of losing some more, unlike the 70's. I don't see this working out for them in any near term. What was necesary to recover from Watergate didn't entail entirely reworking the base's expectations.

Their only hope is the Dems screw up bad. Otherwise, it will be at least a generation before any R's get national majorities. I would say the next potential R pres will be more like 2020 or 2024, and it could take longer.

[Forkboy]

19. All valid points.

I still say we shouldn't take our boot off of their throats. ;)

Thanks for your post. You make good points. :toast:

[Muttocracy]

6. dormant - they'll have to reorganize and realign somehow, we're just in that part of the cycle. nt

[SemiCharmedQuark]

7. They'll be back, without a doubt.

[Posteritatis]

8. Looks like a one-way phoenix at the moment (nt)

[Laelth]

9. David Michael Green predicts dodo.

Here: http://www.commondreams.org/view/2008/11/24

:dem:

-Laelth

[Historic NY]

10. "Moses" can't even help them..they will be wandering for years.

[cali]

11. I'm in the Phoenix column

surprised to see how many people believe that the repuke party is dead.

[DemoTex]

12. Doo-doo

Deep, deep doo-doo.

[Fumesucker]

13. Cornered Wolverine..

They will do quite literally *anything* to regain power.

Crazy and dangerous.

[Meshuga]

14. I don't think they will see gains in the next two elections

But I don't think they are dead. Thay can change and they have to. They are badly damaged and they will have to reinvent themselves as a more moderate party in order to survive.

[Xithras]

17. Phoenix. DUers are forgetting the American populations short memory span.

In four years the Democratic party will be "the establishment", the war in Iraq will be long over, and a huge number of moderates will see the Bush years as old news. In eight years it will be ancient history.

Right now, the Republican party actually has an advantage over us. Without power, they can shape their agenda to fit any role they'd like...knowing that they don't have to live up to it. They have many years to convince American's that the "old" Republican party is dead and that the "new" Republican party stands for "change" or whatever the issue of the day is. If history tells us anything, it's that the sheeple will buy it if the story is repeated often and sincerely enough.

One of my co-workers at the college pointed out that war-crimes trials could actually work against the Democratic Party in this manner, since it would allow the Republicans to claim that the "bad guys" have all been punished and cleaned out of the party, and only the "good guys" are left. Again, repeated often enough by the MSM, people would buy it.

[jacksonian]

18. but political parties can't just spin on a dime

for the Reugs to do what you say, "shape their agenda to fit any role they'd like", would entail telling some loyal supporters your concerns don't matter. Killing the "old" R party means, in practical term, kicking the old guard out and any who believe in them. But it's risky - subtraction is sometimes only subtraction.

Ruling Dems will piss off groups of voters, it's inevitable, but these groups will be small ideological factions all over the politcal spectrum. Cobbling them into a national party while telling the fundies to suck air but don't go away is quite a daunting task, and I don't think they're up to it.

They control the media, and that's their one ace in the hole. But the media's losing sway, and the actual grass-roots party on the R side is absolutely a disaster and has been for a long time. For too long they've figured they don't need retail politcs, they had the big guns onair. Too much marketing and scandal-news has driven their party, and nothing works forever.

Their only path back is on the left, and they are just not set up to go there.