With Specter's defection, McConnell's job gets that much harder
By Halimah Abdullah | McClatchy Newspapers
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Specter's defection is just the latest in a series of disappointing legislative and political setbacks for McConnell, the titular head of a party that has faced bruising losses in recent elections. Republicans were barely clinging to the 41 seats needed to filibuster legislation they don't like, and while Specter's party switch is no guarantee that he'll consistently vote with his new party's block, the Pennsylvania senator will hold considerable sway as part of a small group of centrist Democrats.
McConnell will have to fight to keep Specter and moderate Republican Sens. Susan Collins and Olympia Snowe of Maine from joining Democrats on such key votes as environmental protection measures, broadening health care coverage and stem cell research.
"Now (McConnell's) got 40 seats, he's got no cushion," said Jennifer Duffy, a senior editor with the Cook Political Report. "They're going to have to woo conservative Democrats and Specter once they get over being furious with him. McConnell biggest problem, and the Republican leaders in general, is the psychological blow. The party is down already. It's just one more kick in the teeth."
Then there is the looming 2010 election cycle, a period political experts say may prove rocky for the GOP.
"Electorally, their next problem in the next cycle and future cycles if they want to get back into the majority is to expand their coalition, because their base is getting too small," said Randall Strahan, professor of political science at Emory University and the author of "Leading Representatives: The Agency of Leaders in the Politics of the U.S. House."
So far, several key Republicans, including Florida's Mel Martinez, Sam Brownback of Kansas and Christopher "Kit" Bond of Missouri, have announced they will not seek re-election in 2010.
Bunning, who has publicly sparred with both McConnell and National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman John Cornyn, R-Texas, over the junior Kentucky senator's re-election prospects, is widely considered the most vulnerable incumbent senator in the 2010 election cycle.
One of the biggest challenges McConnell may face could come from members of his own party who, after weathering several cycles of blistering losses and the sting of Specter's defection, may feel less inclined to shift perspectives and tactics, Duffy said.
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