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1964 was indeed a referendum on a national tragedy, but to a lesser extent, can't we say that about the last election? As yesterday's news reported, we're officially in the deepest recession in over fifty years, the people at the heart of it didn't need a group of government economists to tell them that in November. And it's clear that the mounting death toll of US soldiers in Iran and Afghanistan were as much an issue for Bushco as the mounting death toll in Vietnam was for Johnson and later, Humphrey in 1968.
While the center of the Watergate chapter of our nation's history was indeed Nixon, the taint of it spread to all Republicans. The 1974 midterm elections produced a huge swing from the GOP to the Democratic Party, even though the Republicans were already in the minority, and the Nixon had already resigned. As far as GOP party leaders being safe, generally one becomes a party leader because they keep getting re-elected from a "safe" state or district. But as we saw, it didn't go that way for a lot of leading Democratic Senators in the 1980 election, where we lost Birch Bayh, Frank Church, George McGovern, Gaylord Nelson, and Warren Magnuson.
It is a good point that Jimmy Carter was not broadly supported, much of his support came from the South that was ready to abandon him when they had the choice between him and Reagan. One could make the observation that a goodly part of Barack Obama's electoral votes came from states that were formerly reliably GOP such as Indiana, Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, and a few others that voted Republican about half the time. They may be in play in a few years if things are not perceived to get better.
Among the people here, President Obama had great support during the general election campaign, but I'd make the case that his support among much of the country was a mile wide and an inch deep. Compared to the weak candidacy of McLame, people decided to give a young man with a fresh promise their support, rather than a doddering old man who was stuck in the past. While the President currently enjoys the reservoir of good will that he has built up since the election, and for the first hundred days of his Presidency, events happen which turn people's perceptions sometimes.
While it's my fervent hope that the President succeeds, and is perceived to succeed, we still have many challenges ahead. The economy has not yet bottomed out, the sooner we reach that point, the more time we have to recover from this recession before the elections. We are still mired in Iraq, and violence has resumed there between the factions of Islam. Afghanistan and Pakistan are still great looming questions. Plus, we have no idea when President Obama's "Katrina" moment will be. It could be the current swine flu, and he will be seen as effective in dealing with it, in contrast to "heckuva job, Brownie".
All I'm saying is that it's too soon to start looking in your closet for your black suit to wear at the Rethuglican Party's funeral.
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