Beware surfers: cyberspace is filling up

[Doughboy71]

Internet users face regular “brownouts” that will freeze their computers as capacity runs out in cyberspace, according to research to be published later this year.

Experts predict that consumer demand, already growing at 60 per cent a year, will start to exceed supply from as early as next year because of more people working online and the soaring popularity of bandwidth-hungry websites such as YouTube and services such as the BBC’s iPlayer.

It will initially lead to computers being disrupted and going offline for several minutes at a time. From 2012, however, PCs and laptops are likely to operate at a much reduced speed, rendering the internet an “unreliable toy”.

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[Sultana]

1. FUCK!

[ananda]

2. This is bullshit.

It's priming the pump for tiered pricing.

[cliffordu]

3. DING DING DING We have a winnah!!!

Precisely.

[NYCGirl]

4. The Exaflood Myth Just Won't Die (in other words, the Times article is crap)

http://www.broadbandreports.com/shownews/The-Exaflood-Myth-Just-Wont-Die-102202

The term "exaflood," created by the same PR tank that crafted the term "intelligent design," is part of a sophisticated campaign aimed at convincing the press, public and lawmakers that without giving carriers what they want (less regulation, no net neutrality laws, no price controls, huge subsidies and tax credits, less consumer protection), the world will simply run out of bandwidth and we'll all be weeping over our clogged tubes.

Andrew Odlyzko, one of the nation's top experts on global Internet traffic, repeatedly notes that while growth is strong, it doesn't necessitate drastic new pricing model shifts (metered billing), and is entirely manageable with just modest capacity upgrades. According to Odlyzko, the current Internet growth rate of about 50% per year "can be accommodated with essentially the current level of capital investment." If anything, Odlyzko predicts a slow down (something Cogent data confirms).

That doesn't stop carriers from repeatedly suggesting that a bandwidth apocalypse looms. One of the industry's favorite source of capacity scare mongering is Nemertes Research, who, since 2007, has published a series of reports insisting that video demand is going to result in Internet brownouts. Their studies result in wholly unskeptical reports like this one in the UK Times Online. Be afraid:

MORE AT LINK

[Overseas]

10. Thank you !!

I really appreciate getting the other side of these stories !

[Avalux]

5. Who wrote this article? A lobbyist for the cable companies?

Time Warner found out real quick its tiered system wasn't going to play well with the people and they scrapped it. Now they have to regroup and try to scare us into believing the internet needs to be controlled. Ridiculous.

[MADem]

6. The UK has shitty net infrastructure--the article even admits it. NT

[MadHound]

7. First off, this is in Britain

Where, like the article said, much of the country is still operating on a copper wire backbone. Fiber optics are much more prevalent here in the States, so that will mitigate some of the problem.

Furthermore, I seriously doubt that the servers and lines needed won't be installed, after all there's money to be made in doing so and in expanding the network.

Finally, I just think that this is a study that will be used as an excuse for various corporations to start charging for their bandwidth and content.

[NightWatcher]

8. oh noes....All the tubes are jammed up?

[Javaman]

11. they are actually burning out faster than anticipated!!!

more tubes!!! STAT!!!!

[backscatter712]

9. We hear the same shit every year.

And every year, there's new technology coming out that multiplies available bandwidth. Of course, big telcos and big cable would rather spend their money on slick advertising campaigns and lobbying for tiered Internet, but if we dig in, they'll spend that money on bandwidth and new technology and we'll be fine.

They've been predicting the Imminent End Of The Internet since the 80's, and it hasn't happened.