Computer Simulation of Swine Flu Infection Rate

[The Sushi Bandit]

Large-scale computer simulations run by Northwestern University researchers show worst-case scenario projections of approximately 1,700 cases of swine flu for the entire United States four weeks from now.

Story and video at: http://current.com/items/90011536_computer-simulation-of-swine-flu-infection-rate.htm

[kestrel91316]

1. Oh, boy, I just LOVE what it shows about MY neighborhood.

:rofl:

Los Angeles County, the reddest spot on the map soon........and the Valley is half Mexicans.......oy.

[readmoreoften]

4. I don't expect it to have much to do with Mexico soon. /nt

[kestrel91316]

18. Well, Cinco de Mayo celebrations are just around the corner and they are BIG BIG BIG

in LA County.........

[readmoreoften]

2. It's interesting to see how slow an actual "pandemic" is as opposed to Hollywood nightmare scenarios

It shows that if we can get our media apparatuses to respond to such events with a PROPER TONE we might be able to prevent and control pandemics in the future.

[Howzit]

3. This doesn't sound "worst case" considering how much media attention is being given

This university must be run by right wingers. I am sure other accademics could run a model that predicts swine flu resulting in over 100 foot sea level rise by 2020....

That begs the question: Why all the media attention to what seems to be a small event?

[readmoreoften]

8. Wait? Right wingers are more staid than "left wingers" when it comes to producing

mathematical models? I'm not sure *wings* have much to do with it. And what's with the pro-right wing bias? Is FOX news less sensational than Democracy Now? Did I miss a memo or something?

[Demoiselle]

5. 1700 out of 300 million?

That's um....(just a minute, I'm playing with my calculator),,,
.000005 % of the population

Isn't that sort of low?
( I am an idiot where numbers are concerned.)

[nadinbrzezinski]

9. This is not for the full year, but four weeks

and the only thing I think it is not taking into account, is air travel, or not enough

but if you look at the annual maps for the yearly flu they track someting like this

If you look at the 1918 map, somebody posted the map yesterday from a history program on PBS it looks similar, but going from Kansas on

Of course that is for a full year

Infections , or rather infection rate, looks like a bell curve

[Demoiselle]

12. Thanks for the perspective! (eom)

[rosesaylavee]

17. And given the number of cases in Cook County (Chicago)

it sure doesn't account for the millions of commuters who work in the City and live in the 'burbs.

Interesting map but highly doubt it will be close to accurate. Guess we will see won't we.

[readmoreoften]

10. Yeah, but there won't be a vaccine for a few months, so it will either fizzle on its own

or grow from that point on. During earlier pandemics, we most likely wouldn't have the slightest clue about what was happening until a few months in.

[nadinbrzezinski]

15. There is something that the geeks know

except for 1976, where it started and fizzled out at Fort Dix, every other pandemic has had waves.

By the way 1976 was not a pandemic, never even got to the definition of epidemic, though I do get it why public health freaked out

[graywarrior]

6. I can't make out NH results.

Looks like nothing.

[nadinbrzezinski]

7. THanks for us geeks that is great

[hedgehog]

11. But, other maps show cases alrady in Kansas, Ohio, Michigan and Indiana.

[Muttocracy]

14. exactly - see map link below. South Carolina too. nt

[Muttocracy]

13. Due to air travel it's way more stochastic than that

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2009/04/27/us/20090427-flu-update-graphic.html

[alfredo]

16. I'm not really worried about this flu. I think it is good to be cautious.

http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2009/04/swine-flu-in-the-hundred-acre-wood.html