Peak Oil is back. Also, oil and gasoline rising...

[Subdivisions]

Peak Oil: Global Oil Production’s Peaked, Analyst Says

By Keith Johnson


Dust off those survivalist manuals and brush up on your dystopias: Peak oil is back.

http://blogs.wsj.com/environmentalcapital/2009/05/04/peak-oil-global-oil-productions-peaked-analyst-says/">Wall Street Journal

Global production of petroleum peaked in the first quarter of last year, says analysts Raymond James, which “represents a paradigm shift of historic proportions. Unfortunately, mankind better get ready to live in a peak oil world because we believe the ‘peak’ is now behind us.”

-snip-

The contention rests on a simple argument: OPEC oil production actually fell even as oil prices were above $100 a barrel, a sign of the “tyranny of geology” that limits the easy production of ever-more crude.

“Those declines had to have come for involuntary reasons such as the inherent geological limits of oil fields … We believe that the oil market has already crossed over to the downward sloping side of Hubbert’s Peak,” the analysts write.

-snip-

“Those declines had to have come for involuntary reasons such as the inherent geological limits of oil fields … We believe that the oil market has already crossed over to the downward sloping side of Hubbert’s Peak,” the analysts write.

Despite fallen demand brought on by the economic crisis, oil has creeped up $10 per barrell in recent weeks and the price of gas at the pumps in my town has increased 30¢. So far, no screaming about speculators.

How is the price of gas going in your neck of the woods?

[blue_onyx]

1. It was 2.27 at the gas stations near me

Although, I filled up for 2.17 at Costco.

[customerserviceguy]

4. Filled up with the cheapest gas in NJ today

at the Lukoil station on the Garden State Parkway. Prices are controlled along that stretch, and they can only move so far, so fast. Got it for $2.00.9, my favorite Sunoco station that had the lowest prices just a few months ago (the low point was $1.35.9) was a nickel a gallon higher than that.

I'll be fine as long as it stays under $2.50 a gallon until I can get my last big credit card paid off, I've projected that for about six months away as long as I can keep getting 30 hours a week instead of only 20.

[neverforget]

2. I filled up for $2.39 today. When the economy recovers, gas is going

to skyrocket.

[ConcernedCanuk]

5. If what you say is true, then gas is not gonna "skyrocket" in the near future

.
.
.

. . "When the economy recovers" . .

Don't be holding ur breath

[neverforget]

19. I know. I should have said "if" and I am not holding my breath.

[DJ13]

3. Im really glad Obama isnt allowing unregulated commodity manipulation

Oh wait......

[JVS]

6. I think speculators have figured out which horse to flog for higher prices

[dkf]

7. Gas prices are going up because people think the economy is improving.

But we've shown we can do with less if we really want to. Question is do we want to.

[taterguy]

9. What's this "we" shit?

How am I supposed to get to work?

[dkf]

11. You don't have a bus system? Subway, train?

Carpool? You can't buy a car that uses less gas? Lotsa options!

[HarukaTheTrophyWife]

14. Actually, where I live, there is no bus, subway, or train system

No way to carpool and I couldn't afford to buy a new car.

My car gets decent gas mileage, but a lot of people don't have "lotsa options."

[taterguy]

16. If I had those options wouldn't I be using them already?

I live in a smallish Southern city.

Virtually no mass transit.

There are buses but no stops near my house or place of employment.

The only co-workers that live in my neighborhood work different hours.

And no, I can't buy a new car. Times are tough in case you hadn't noticed.

Got anymore ideas?

[dkf]

23. That kind of sucks.

I fully anticipate that gas will be going up up and up in the future. Last time gas hit close to five bucks I started thinking about taking the bus, but since it came back down I'm driving everywhere again.

I must admit, it helps to have options.

[taterguy]

27. How did we get to the point where not driving isn't an option?

The physical size of this country hasn't changed much in the past 100 years.

Even 50 years after the Model T lots of people got by without an automobile.

Cars are not a requirement for civilization.

Some of the world's most desirable areas are places where people rarely drive.

So what is it about our mentality that makes driving a requirement?

More importantly, what can we do to change it?

[Javaman]

52. push for more light rail and long distance trains.

then if you live in the country and can't find a local job, sadly, you will have to move.

The contraction of society into cities or at least closer to them is happening now. It's just not exciting as some beauty queen making half assed statements.

[taterguy]

55. We need to change mentalities as well as infrastructure

I know people who drive to work, even though it takes them more time to find a parking place than it would to just walk or bike.

[wuushew]

22. What is your current vehicle?

n/t

[taterguy]

25. This guzzler:

[Javaman]

48. Actually, no. read my posts at #46 and #45. nt

[misanthrope]

8. Don't prices always climb at the beginning of summer?**nm

**

[DainBramaged]

10. Gas prices are about the same as they were 5 years ago

here come the fear mongers yet again.:eyes: And on top of that, there are NO natural causes for the oil to be climbing, only illogical speculation by greedy fucks who NEED to keep oil above $50 a bbl. for them to maintain their wealth.

[Ezlivin]

12. If Peak Oil has or is occurring, that's a "natural cause"

But if it hasn't, then I agree with you that the rise in the cost of oil has no natural causes.

[HarukaTheTrophyWife]

15. I think "Peak Oil" is a scam by OPEC to raise oil prices

I think we need to cut back and find energy alternatives, but more from a global warming perspective. I don't think we're going to run out of oil anytime soon. Humans will destroy themselves way before that happens.

[Ezlivin]

17. Peak Oil is NOT about "running out of oil"

It's about reaching peak oil production and then entering the downward slope that ends in oil depletion.

Oil depletion will eventually happen, but the problem that Peak Oil is concerned with is the rising cost of extracting the remaining petroleum.

[HarukaTheTrophyWife]

18. Well, in any case, I think we're just seeing market manipulation

[Subdivisions]

21. Keep thinking that... n/t

[HarukaTheTrophyWife]

32. I will

:thumbsup:

[Javaman]

46. not this time around...

last time, maybe, this time: nope.

there is currently a minor glut of oil, but the raw product still needs to be refined for it to be usable for other means.

The refiners (Exxon holds the lion share of refineries here in the states) cuts back on production, thus raising the price at the pump. But not only at the pump but anything that is made from refined oil. All plastics, all oil based aerosols, etc.

So think what you may, that's just the fact.

I follow peak oil very closely and refuse to give into the crowd mentality when I know the facts.

Everyday I post "drumbeat" updates, from theoildrum.com, I post a twice weekly update entitled "peak oil news" from energybulliten.net and I also post an update from the Canadians perspective each week in the energy/environmental forum.

I know of what I speak.

[Javaman]

45. Actually no. it's not technically about peak production...

it's about the amount of oil that is supplied not meeting demand.

As the worlds pop increases, as the 3rd world develops, they need and want oil to runs their new found transportation: cars.

Oil unto itself, as far as out put is concerned, is, yes, also peaking only because demand has outstripped the ability to pump more to stay ahead of that demand. But also because no new massive reserves have been located.

At current demand, whether or not the economy improves, we will need the equivalent of 3 saudi ghawar fields found every year by the year 2020.

Ain't going to happen. Plus, the other reason for the peaking of oil is: the easy light sweet crude is just about gone and the heavy smelly thick sulfur crap is left. don't get me wrong though, there is plenty of oil left, but it's the trash stuff. It can be refined, but only at enormous costs and doesn't give you the kind of bang for the buck the industry is accustomed to.

One point of logic anyone tells you that we have plenty of oil left, though, a simple response to them is, "oh, then why dig for tar sands that are only profitable at 80 bucks a barrel? one would think that if there was plenty left, they wouldn't have to get that garbage oil".

Also, the other canard of drilling in the gulf of mexico. It's down over 5 miles. the pressures and temps at that depth make to costly to extract many nations are bagging it all together. Now when oil rockets over 150 bucks a barrel, they might have second thoughts.

I can go on and on, I have been researching peak oil for about 6 years now for a documentary I'm producing.

[ThomWV]

28. Peak Oil is the ralling cry of fools

[Javaman]

44. right. try and do some research instead of spouting euphemisms. nt

[Uzybone]

24. well said

doom and gloomers act like recent history doesn't exist.

[ThomWV]

29. Yep, and it was being manipulated badly back then too.

[Javaman]

47. Read my posts at #46 and #45. nt

[lib2DaBone]

13. Another spike in gas prices.. this country will grind to a halt..literally

People are having trouble finding enough money to buy food.

$4 gasoline and this country will look like a scene from Mad Max staring Mel Gibson.

[Javaman]

53. Actually, I think if it does spike again this summer, I believe we are in a much better position

than last time.

Last time, not many people were growing their own food. this time they are. Last time, people dumped their suv's for smaller cars. So people are already of the mindset of saving gas.
Also many people saw the fools paradise of living in the exoburbs. Those who could left.

Granted there will always be a huge segment of society that 1) can't afford to make those changes I mentioned above 2) the people who believe that we still have plenty of oil and damn climate change 3) people who just love to life in willful ignorance.

the first group, I feel really sorry for due to their financial situation. Given the shitty economy, the best they can hope for it an expansion of the bus routes in their city. That is if their city even has one or they even live near a stop. The middle group, I just like to call them republicans and the last group are a good chunk of society that believe everything will be alright and they won't have to change a thing about their lives to make a difference. They will be very surprised. Probably like last time.

As much as it hurts my own pocket book, the spikes do serve a purpose in that they highlight the fragility of our countries economy and sustainability for our grossly over indulgent society. The last one woke a few folks up, this time, when it happens again, I think a much larger portion will shake off the scales from their eyes and open them to reality.

[orleans]

20. $2.60! assholes! n/t

[depakid]

26. Geophysical limits- laws of thermodynamics -they're always there

Whether one likes to see them or not.

[ThomWV]

30. Want two interesting little energy factoids?

Someday maybe you can make use of this although as I will present it there is no real point.

We import compressed natural gas and we export about the same amount of it. We import it in the north east and we export it from the north west ports. Most of the imported gas is used for home heating, most of the exported gas goes to Japan. So that's one thing. The second thing is that the gas is transported by ship and sensibly enough the ships use the gas they transport for fuel. It requires use of about 3% of the ships cargo of gas to power the ship across the Atlantic.

[Subdivisions]

33. Interesting. What else do you know about energy resources and supply?

I work in the energy business and do some consulting but my knowledge is limited so I was just wondering.

[carlyhippy]

31. Last Friday I was watching one station change the price from 2.09 to 2.24, so I

rushed to the gas station down the street who still had 2.09 and filled up....it oughta last me a month with a full tank, it's spring and I walk to work more.

[Deja Q]

34. Ooga booga. There are plenty of variables.

I'm not denying the concept or the fact that conservation isn't always a bad thing... but 98% of the media relies on scaremongering.

[Subdivisions]

35. So, how do you explain the IEA's and EIA's warnings on the topic? Oh yeah, and...

numerous academic and geological industry studies as well as several high-level oil company execs' opinions on the topic?



Look at the CRASH in production that coincided with the CRASH in price per barrel!

[Subdivisions]

36. Kick for EIA graph. n/t

[taterguy]

37. I'd like to hear an explanation too

[mnhtnbb]

38. It's up $.20 from the last time I filled up--about 10 days ago.

[robertpaulsen]

39. Back? It never went away. Google Peak Oil, bumpy plateau.

Peak Oil happened. Note the tense.

[Subdivisions]

40. Hey, Robert. Do you have any comment on this graph?

And, could please you explain the plateau for those who may need a lil schoolin'?

Thanks.

[robertpaulsen]

41. Sorry I missed your reply. Great graph!

Basic explanation for the bumpy plateau: as demand grew while supply remained static (Peak) from 2005 to 2008, prices went sky-high. When sky-high prices destroyed demand, the economy shrank. When the economy grows again, demand for oil will increase. Guess what happens to the price of oil? Yep, it's a vicious circle.

Anyone looking for a solution, I highly recommend purchasing A Presidential Energy Policy by Michael C. Ruppert. He explains how the only way to change this vicious circle is to change the way money works. Money only represents the ability to do work: you can't eat a $20 bill and get nutrition and you can't put a $20 bill in your gas tank and expect to drive. Energy is the ability to do work.

[Javaman]

49. Exactly right.

I always find it very amusing when people start bitching about the price of gas, but yet do nothing to lower their use of it.

just another type of addict.

we had a massive scare of things to come last year, people started driving less, but then time moved on and guess what, driving started to increase again. One would think that people who live in a society which is run on a finite resource would make the cosmic connection. "use more, less left".

I guess not.

It is indeed a very bumpy ride.

But the graph looks so smooth from 40 feet away!!! yeah, how about that. Details sucks. LOL

[scheming daemons]

42. Again?

This has to be the 20th time that someone wrote that we've reached "peak oil" over the past few decades.



Yawn.

[Javaman]

50. someone posted a graph upthread, I suggest you have a look at it.

I'm sorry if peak oil is no longer your flavor of the week, but get used to it. major ups and downs of the price of oil and gas at the pump is just a way of life now. In about 3-5 years you will look upon these times as the good old days.

[Joanne98]

43. Banksters are driving the price up. ON PURPOSE!

There is no shortage.

[Javaman]

51. sigh. read my posts at #45 & #46. nt

[Subdivisions]

54. Who said anything about shortage? This isn't about shortage. It's

about production. We will never run out of oil. But there will come a time when it costs more to retrieve the oil that is left. It's known as Energy Returned on Energy Invested, or EROIE. Boiled down, it means we are fast approaching the point where it costs as much in energy to produce an equal amount of energy. Once that point is reached, it is no longer economically viable, read: it's not profitable. No profit, no oil - even while there is still plently oil left in the Earth's crust.

Your response to this thread shows that you have not done your research and are instead rather naive with regard to the subject.

PS: If you know how to interpret it, the graph I posted up-thread (simple as it is) illustrates the EORIE of world liquids productions. On the up-slope, the oil itself is very helpful in its own production as the vast majority of it is under pressure and very little energy is required to get it producing, hence the gushers of old:



However, we are now seeing that pressure easing and energy being increased in order to produce it. When that Plateau begins to turn downward, the further it goes down, the more energy will be applied to produce it, hence the energy needed for more intense exploration, having to drill deeper and farther afield, and this, the ubiquitous Nodding Donkey:



When that production graph eventually stops recording (as it has done for EVERY SINGLE played-out oil field in the world), EROIE will have reached 1 to 1. 1 to 1 (or 1:1) means that oil is no longer a profitable business. And, unless we find a way to replace it, we'll be back to horse & buggy.