'Very active' 2007 hurricane season predicted (Well, this should work out VERY WELL for us.)

[Bluebear]

DENVER - The 2007 Atlantic hurricane season should be "very active," with nine hurricanes and a good chance that at least one major hurricane will hit the U.S. coast, a top researcher said Tuesday.

Forecaster William Gray said he expects 17 named storms in all this year, five of them major hurricanes with sustained winds of 111 mph or greater. The probability of a major hurricane making landfall on the U.S. coast this year: 74 percent, compared with the average of 52 percent over the past century, he said.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070403/ap_on_re_us/hurricane_forecast

[Dr.Phool]

1. The Weather Channel is the top-rated channel down here in Florida

In the summer.

[Kookaburra]

2. Don't they predict a VERY active season

every year? Sometimes they hit, sometimes they miss. I wish I could be as wrong as much at my job as weather predictors.

[SteppingRazor]

3. Eh, since last season, I'm taking a wait-and-see approach

At the beginning of last season, they predicted a very active season as well, but it was something of a snoozer. They later attributed this to an active El Nino, but shouldn't they have seen that coming?

At this point, I'm not convinced of the efficacy of long-term meteorological predictions.

(and, by the way, bitingly humorous parenthetical commentary :thumbsup: )

[Dr.Phool]

10. There were more hurricanes last year than normal.

The El Nino related steering winds steered them all up into the northeast Atlantic. Just because we didn't get hit, doesn't mean they weren't there.

I don't put much stock in Grays forecasts myself, 2004 and 2005 keep me on my toes. I'm getting ready now.

[SteppingRazor]

12. Oh, I take the usual precautions every year.

I'll have plenty of water, etc. (I never figured out how I was supposed to have days worth of ice on hand, the way Gov. Jerky McLargeHead wanted me too, but what the hey)

[Firespirit]

18. El Nino

Yeah, they should have seen that coming. They can't predict them more than about six months in advance, but they should have been able to predict these.

It was pretty sudden. This year's La Nina pattern is also very sudden.

Makes you wonder why they are getting caught by surprise. We have cycled through an entire El Nino cycle in 15 months -- La Nina in January of 06, to El Nino late last year, back to what is shaping up to be a strong La Nina again. That isn't normal.

[Journeyman]

4. Ah, the return of Dr Grey -- this time with doom and gloom first. . .

For 2006, he first predicted we'd have less hurricanes than 2005 (http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts/2005/dec2005/), then one month later opined we'd have more and more severe hurricanes than 2005 (http://www.dr1.com/forums/weather-beyond/48713-2006-hurricane-season-may-worse-than-2005-a.html).

It's like earthquake prognosticators here in California -- everytime there's a temblor, someone steps forward to say we're going to have "the big one" sometime in the next 30 years. Eventually, of course, they'll be proved right, and from there they hope to enshrine their reputation. Charlatans all.

[goclark]

5. We are going to Houston and Charleston SC in June

Is that still the season ?

[kimmerspixelated]

7. Uh...yeppir!

[Bluebear]

9. I think that is very early in the season.

Most occur Sept-Oct no?

[SteppingRazor]

14. Hurricane season is June 1-Nov. 30 n/t

[goclark]

19. Oh my, thanks for the information nt

[SoFlaJet]

6. about this picture.....

has any other musicians here noticed how he's playing that "G" chord? Hey dumbass-it's the 3rd fret not the 4th

[tritsofme]

8. They said the same thing last year.

Hopefully they're wrong again.

[jpak]

17. I think our luck will run out this year

The 2006 Atlantic Hurricane Season was quiet with only one (weak) tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico.

People tend to forget, however, that the 2006 Eastern and Western Pacific Tropical Cyclone Season was *very* active in comparison - with lots of large devastating storms making landfall in Australia and Asia.

Those trends may reverse with the waning El Nino in the Pacific.

I'm not going to be too quick to dismiss the predictions for this year...

[Firespirit]

20. There were two storms that hit the East Coast

Ernesto hit the Carolinas and Virginia, and Beryl hit Cape Cod.

[rec_report]

11. The terrorists at Exxon Mobil can start gouging the public right now...

in the 'pre-hurricane' season, as there is a 'potential' for oil rigs in the Gulf to be damaged once hurricane season is upon us.

[Bluebear]

15. Good point. nt

[xkenx]

13. Pay absolutely no attention, ever, to pre-season hurricane forcasts.

My dog can predict them better than Dr. Gray and that crowd, which is to say "not at all." Those guys like to think they've got all kinds of scientific information, but the climate doesn't work that way. The factors which determine number, strength, and track of hurricanes are in constant flux, and a pattern today can change tomorrow. Some years, the various influences conspire to make a severe season, other years just the opposite. The averages are made up of the extremes and everything in between. Even when a hurricane has formed, where it will make landfall (if it does) is never known in enough detail to make a difference until the last day or so. Even then, the hurricane which messed up Punta Gorda,FL veered in the last few hours. Point is, if you live in hurricane country, keep posted, take precautions if a hurricane threatens you directly. Example: 2005 was horrible in parts of Florida; New England hardly knew there was a hurricane season. And never pay any attention to the gross forecasts; they only serve to make you fret unnecessarily, or mistakenly not worry. In fact, if these guys wanted to do a real service, they should stress the utter capriciousness of hurricanes and urge people to follow them closely once a tropical storm has formed.

[Firespirit]

16. Bill Gray

Bill Gray is a global warming denier. This old fossil actually gave up principal authorship of his hurricane forecast in order to "pursue global warming."

Joe Bastardi of AccuWeather is a Republican, and probably another denier. Both of these guys have issued doom and gloom forecasts. Unfortunately though, I rather suspect their forecasts for this year will be mostly accurate. I follow it very closely, and the conditions are setting up for the Gulf Coast and Florida to get socked... again. I just wish that the meteorologists with media platforms weren't a bunch of reactionaries on the most important issue of our time.