Passing Health Care Reform Will Not Hurt Or Help Democrats

[kpete]

Tuesday, February 2, 2010
Health Care Polling

Democratic candidates this fall will fare about the same whether health care passes or not. That's the finding of our newest national poll. So Democrats can not pass health care and go down in flames for having accomplished nothing, or they can pass health care and still go down in flames but at least have done some good for it.

The GOP leads 43-40 on the generic Congressional ballot. When you ask people how they'll vote if the Democrats don't pass their health care plan the GOP leads 43-38. That's because the level of support from Democratic voters for their own party drops from 80% to 76% if there is no health care bill. The GOP level of support remains unchanged at this point whether it passes or not.

Here's the bottom line on health care at this point: the political damage for Democrats has been done. It doesn't matter whether it actually passes- it has had the effect of getting Republican voters really fired up and along with the economy continuing to struggle it has turned independents toward the GOP as well. Those voters aren't going to come back at this point because health care doesn't pass. Would Democrats be in a better position right now if they hadn't even touched the issue? Probably. But what's the point of being in power if you don't deal with things like health care?

Democrats are primed to have a brutal election year right now. It might be nice if they actually had something to show for it. And as many smart people have argued, if health care reform passes and proves to be a success it may well be that while it's a short term political liability for the party, in the long run it's a winner in the vein of Social Security or Medicare.

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/02/health-care-polling.html
via:

[endless october]

1. i don't understand how the November elections are already a done deal.

there is a Democrat majority in the Senate and House. use it and stop screwing around. and SELL the policies and programs. stop apologizing for them.

look at what the Republicans did 2004 - 2006 and do the exact opposite of that.

[LatteLibertine]

2. Passing health care

reform is the right long term decision for the United States.

It is true the wave of anger out there is anti-incumbent and not directed solely at Democrats or Republicans. Folks are tired of politicians who are perceived as putting the interests of the most wealthy minority over the good of some 90% of the rest of the population.

Politicians purely interested in remaining in office will aggressively push for real financial market reform. The return of something like the Glass-Steagall Act would be a good start. If you're perceived as sitting by or enabling another financial market "crisis" you'll likely be out of a job come election time. People are tired of the slanted system, corporatism, crony capitalism and the willful perpetration of economic and social injustice. Mark my words, the old excuses will no longer be accepted.

The bail out started a fire that will not be appeased with rhetoric long term.

Democratic and Republican politicians remember, Wall Street may have the cash and we have the raw votes.