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I think it would.
Right now both caucuses have to be extraordinarily disciplined (never an easy thing for the Senate) because 1 vote either way can support or remove a filibuster. So, an Olympia Snowe or a Ben Nelson are told that their identity as Republicans or Democrats is entirely dependent on making every vote stick with the party line.
But let's say a rules reform is made that allows a "countdown" filibuster, or even kills the procedure entirely. The party leadership's leverage over a Nelson or a Snowe gets a lot weaker: they are no longer responsible for making or breaking a bill, since the majority party will pretty much get its way.
Now, I know that sounds a lot like a recipe for the majority to trample the minority but I doubt that would happen; the Senate is still a collegial body (more or less). And if Snowe were in a position that she could vote for a bill, a lot of Democrats would be willing to make some concessions so that she would.
Let's say there were no filibuster, and everybody knew that ultimately what the Democratic caucus supported would pass. Suppose Reid had then thrown in some tort reform. Could that have tempted Snowe, McCain, or anybody else over the line to support a bill they knew would pass anyways?
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