Second-Guessing Arlen Specter: Should he have run as an independent?

[saltpoint]

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http://www.salon.com/news/specter_sestak_pennsylvania_senate_primary/index.html?story=/news/feature/2010/05/11/specter_should_have_run_independent

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Joe Sestak has surged in the last couple weeks and at least three separate polls show him around 4 or 5 percentage points ahead of Arlen Specter for the Democratic nomination for the U.S. Senate on May 18th -- one week away.

The implict measure of Specter's drop in popularity (he's at roughly 40-some percent approval, considered "lethal" per the article and conventional wisdom on incumbents) is in the fact that the speculation and analysis of what Specter might have done instead has already begun.

Still a week out, and Specter is not without support. But neither is Sestak, and it may be that Pennsylvania Dems choose Joe over chameleon Arlen.

I'm rooting for Joe.

[bemildred]

1. As long as he loses, Specter did the right thing.

He needs to be gone.

[saltpoint]

3. Arlen has his fans, I realize. But for decades, I have not been

one of them.

I'm rooting for Joe.

[bemildred]

5. We need a new acronym: "IINO" for Independent In Name Only

for all of these corporate tools that are jumping around now that the corrupt party system is breaking down from its own fecklessness. You could pronounce it something like "eeeno".

[saltpoint]

7. I thought the political theater of Specter changing parties had more

value AS theater, which politics often is. But for Specter's chances, it was a huge gamble.

There is this piece from the Christian Science Monitor, which I don't usually read, but found on the web hunting around for analysis on the Pennsylvania primary:

http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Politics/2010/0511/Why-Arlen-Specter-is-in-trouble?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+feeds%2Fusa+%28Christian+Science+Monitor+%7C+USA%29

[bemildred]

9. Well, I can agree with that.

I kind of enjoyed the show, because I thought it was a desperate strategy and that Arlen would lose. But I'm wrong a lot, for example I still cannot believe Lieberman got re-elected, even with the crossover vote.

[saltpoint]

10. I'm still kind of heartbroke and sobbin' over that Connecticut race.

Some Pennsylvania DUers were the ones who told me that Pennsylvania has a 'sore loser' law that would prohibit Specter from using the Lieberman option if he loses to Sestak.

[AlinPA]

2. I just saw the new TV ad where President Obama supports Specter; it uses clips from 2009.

It looks like something that could help Specter, but it is not as powerful as Sestak's ad that has Bush calling Specter "an ally" and finishes with a picture of Specter campaigning for Palin.

[saltpoint]

4. I had read that Specter's ad borrows 09 clips. Probably not that

effective in the long run.

I'd love to see a breakdown of county chair dispositions in this race. I know Sestak was very warmly received by the Erie Dems. But it's hard to find more definitive info.

I'm guessing both candidates' polling geeks have run private polls of the political regions of the state. It feels like Sestak's pollsters have better news for their boss than Specter's.

[MH1]

6. Sestak was warmly received by DelCo Dems. Specter, not so much.

But yeah, that was to be expected. ;)

(except some people will try to have you believe Sestak is a tyrant who is hated by all who know him. Ha ha.)

[saltpoint]

8. Hi, MH1. Thanks for that info and update on DelCo -- a lot of the

people at the county level are the ones who are going to handle the ground game. If Joe can run a top-drawer get-out-the-vote this week and next Tuesday, I think Specter is history.

We have caught a few fairly short interviews of Sestak on the radio in between going here or there, and he sounds like a cool-browed problem-solver. He sounded current on issues and earnest in wanting to serve. We were really impressed.

[MH1]

11. You're welcome, and glad you've gotten the chance to hear Sestak

in the radio interviews.

I've seen him in action up close and I think you've assessed him accurately. He is very energetic, highly intelligent, and really does want to solve problems - ALL people's problems, not just liberals, which sometimes pisses off some liberal groups. The irony here is that he is really an Obama-style Democrat but will probably be relying on a lot of pragmatic ultra-lefties to help him win, while some Obama supporters will go to Specter just because the machine is endorsing Specter. (The pragmatic ultra-lefties will piss and moan all the way to the poll but know damn well Sestak is 'less bad' to them than Specter or Toomey, so they will go to vote. The non-voting ultra-whatevers never count anyway.)

[saltpoint]

12. I envy you your bird's-eye view of this caper. If you happen to be

on DU next Tuesday, I'd profit from reading what you have to say as the results come in.

My hunch is that Toomey is praying for Arlen to hold on because he can beat Arlen. Toomey must sense that Joe would be a tougher opponent in the general.

In any case, I'm rooting hard for Joe.

[MH1]

15. thanks but I doubt I'll be on DU Tuesday

maybe sometime on Wednesday. but not until at least sometime after noon. whichever way it goes. ;)

[MH1]

16. and for now

I must say good night. alas, I do NOT have tomorrow off from work.

[saltpoint]

17. Good night, and thanks again.

[AtomicKitten]

13. Of course not.

Even though I've made no secret about not liking either candidate in the Dem primary in Penn, what I do know is that I will root for the winner to go on and kick the stuffing out of Toomey. That fool needs to be go down and stay down.

[saltpoint]

14. I'll dig the hole deep as a hole can get for whichever Dem wins and can

defeat Pat Toomey.

I really do consider him unstable, AtomicKitten. Not just politically repellent, but dick-in-the-toaster crazy.

[AtomicKitten]

18. It's that kind of batshit crazy that unites the opposition.

As it should be.

Cheers.

[saltpoint]

19. and cheers back.

:thumbsup: