If Kagan moves SCOTUS to the right guess how many doors I will knock on for Obama 12?

[usregimechange]

Take the pledge today.

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

1. Kagan clerked for Thurgood Marshall.

I can't think of a better liberal credential than that and I'm not at all worried.

And since the alternative would be a Republican president (Romney? Palin?) I will support Obama again in 2012.

[usregimechange]

4. He is replacing Justice Stevens and her liberal credentials which I have outlined...

are countered with plenty of not so liberal credentials.

[Hekate]

61. Justice Stevens was a Republican appointed by Pres. Gerald Ford, a Republican.

I think people change and moderate their views over time while on the Court -- except for the rigid ideologues like the obnoxious ones we have on the SCOTUS right now; they just become more rigid.

What I am trying to say is that no matter who gets appointed, they are likely to change at least some over time. We really have no way of knowing.

All I know for sure is that no one who made it to Obama's short list this time or the last time got off unscathed by factions at DU.

Saying that if Elena Kagen makes the Court take a rightward tilt will cause the DU Wrath of God to come down on Obama in 2012 is kind of strange, because it is doubtful that anyone could have that much influence in that short of time, not to mention the fact that the Senate hasn't even begun their process.

Hekate

[Duer 157099]

5. How old was she then?

How many of her opinions have changed in that time frame (and lesser time frames, too)?

[peacebird]

9. I am not sure on 2012. If Obama continues appeasing the right then

I may just sit that election out for the first time in my life.
As I posted on another thread - I get the whole "bring the country together, appeal to our better angels" thing. But at some point the man has to take a stand on the liberal side if he wants my vote. Now maybe he doesn't NEED me or other liberals (Rahm certainly seems to think so) but if he keeps leaning right in the vain hope of winning over the repubs he will definitely lose me. He already lost my hubby when he put Bernanke/Geithner in charge of the recovery.

[KharmaTrain]

20. Abner Mikva...

I worked on his Congressional campaigns in the 70s...he was a well respected Federal Judge who surely had a very positive effect on Ms. Kagan. Clerking for Justice Marshall only added to the foundation she already had.

She has a solid "liberal/progressive" pedigree...

[xultar]

2. I agree. Obama shouldn't be trying to make the court centrist

he should be balancing Ws wingnuts with tough lefties.

[moondust]

3. Who knows?

Maybe she'll be another Souter or Stevens who is appointed by the President of one party and ends up usually serving the interests of the other party. :shrug:

As Bill Maher put it today on Blitzer: "Can't we do better than a question mark?"

[Davis_X_Machina]

14. But you're not getting a question mark....

...you're getting a 'D'. As in Democrat. Stone party loyalist. White House apparat from the Clinton administration.

FDR did not put Jimmy Byrnes, or Sherman Minton, nor did Kennedy put Arthur Goldberg on the court because they were brilliant and original legam minds.

[moondust]

24. "I Want to Believe." n/t

[mdmc]

26. apparat for the DLC

"this might be heaven, cause this where the rainbow ends. It might not be the real thing, but it is close enough to pretend."

[amborin]

6. there have already been so many serious deal breakers...

[troubledamerican]

70. + 1

[Davis_X_Machina]

7. Look, it's impossible to move....

...the current court to the right -- it's right up against the needle.

And you could nominate, -- and pass if allow me a little fantasy here -- Lani Guinier or Duncan Kennedy, or Larry Lessig -- instead of Kagan, and the needle would still be right where it is today.

Because you're replacing not replacing Alito, or Scalia.

The difference between the leftmost judge on the short end of a 5-4 decision and the rightmost judge on the short end of a 5-4 decision is always going to be far, far more than the difference between any of the five and any of the four.

[usregimechange]

10. Not sure where you get your math but it would look like this: 4-1-4 to 4-2-3

Not sure how that is no change to you.

[Davis_X_Machina]

15. If you think she's Kennedy in drag....

...you need to find a healthy avocation to replace huffing solvents.

[usregimechange]

16. Ok, read both of these and then get back with me:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x8324805

and

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x8308477

[Davis_X_Machina]

19. The *real* reason to oppose her....

...if you're looking for one, is the risk that she's a party hack, an institutional Democratic apparatchik who made her bones in the Clinton White House, and therefore incapable of making detached decisions based on neutral principles. If you have a problem with that, the problem is with the White House, not the nominee.

The odds on her turning into Justice Kennedy are far, far smaller than those of her turning into Obama's Jimmy Byrnes, or Sherman Minton, or Arthur Goldberg, or Abe Fortas.

[Jennicut]

17. The current left block on the court is not so overwhelmingly liberal

that Kagan will not side with them. Ginsburg, Breyer or Sotomayor are too liberal for Kagan? The first two were Clinton's nominees and were never seen as fire breathing liberals. Kagan will be in between Kennedy and the other 3 leftists if she is a true centrist. Not sure she would go with Scalia, Alito, or Thomas on anything. Too far to the right. I just don't see it.

[Davis_X_Machina]

21. When -- not if, when --

-- Kagan is confirmed, her voting behavior overall in three years will be indistinguishable from Sotomayor's and I'll bet a small donation to the charity of anyone's choice on the outcome.

People are just being silly.

[Jennicut]

55. Yup. We need to make a bet.

Kagan has given to Dems, worked for Dems and suddenly she will vote with Alito, Roberts, Thomas and Scalia??? I don't think she would even come close to Kennedy.

[BootinUp]

8. 1 for each year A.D. ?

Oh ok I see your answer. I think you'll have plenty of company. What I find humorous is that people think Obama would select such a justice.

[usregimechange]

12. I honestly don't believe he would yet we are here (?mark land)

[RandomThoughts]

11. LOL don't make pledges to people.

Never been into that concept, it is the flaw of loyalty.

You support a person when you think they are correct, and disagree when you think they are wrong.


But here is a bigger point. As an example, hope. If someone says hope, does that mean they are talking about President Obama? Not in my thoughts, that is only some label assignments. I think hope is an old concept that President Obama also agrees with.

As is 0. It is not that President Obama is 0, it is that 0 has many meanings. Just like the moon guy is not the symbol of the moon.


That is where people make mistakes, because people are people, and have good and bad, but you can track the good of any person back up to its source, just like you can block the bad of any person from the source that bad comes from.


Again using hope as an example, a person is not the tree with the trunk being any person, but a person that believes in hope would be seen as a branch of the tree that is the source of all hope, when and only when they are in the spirit of hope, the ideology of that virtue of finding better things in life. Same thing with other virtues. People can be a branch of the tree of better things and still do things not that good, but then they are not expressing from the source of good.


In the same way when people with issues like greed or deception, or any other problems are seen, they should be loved, but the source of those problems should be tracked back to its source and blocked, that way you can block millions from hurt from tracking back from one person, instead of hurting someone that is messed up.


The problem with symbols is not going deep enough and finding the source of each one and blocking it or the problem is agreeing with the ideology, because of a person.

Or that is how I see it. :shrug:

[usregimechange]

13. I think you are reading too much into what was a simple statement

[RandomThoughts]

18. I feel you may not be completely accurate there.

:D

[zappaman]

22. Guess who doesn't give a shit how many doors you knock on?

One guess

[depakid]

46. Guess how Democrats lose elections?

One guess.

[LiberalFighter]

23. I'm taking the pledge to support Obama for 2012

I would rather have Obama as President again then any Republican. The odds are that at least 2 conservative justices will either die or retire allowing Obama to replace them with other than conservative justices by the end of his 2nd term. THAT will swing the court to the left more.

Obama is already on his 2nd nomination for the court and he is only in the middle of his 2nd year. I'm figuring he has a chance of filling 5 maybe 6 vacancies before his 2nd term is up. If it results in Obama inevitably getting his choice and the opposition does not have the numbers to support their efforts they could fold. And maybe even result in Roberts, Alito, or Thomas folding too if they feel like they are squeezed out by Obama's replacements that don't support their conservative beliefs. Forcing them to pack their bags and announcing that due to family concerns they retire or resign.

[KG]

25. but, but, ya gotta elect a dem! think of the SC appointments! gotta get some liberals on the bench!

:rofl:

[Sebastian Doyle]

32. Yeah... what are the DLC'ers gonna use for an excuse when they can't even drag that one out anymore?

If even the "Democratic" presidents drag the Supreme Court to the right, guess there goes the last rehearsed talking point for why you have to vote for anybody who calls themself a "Democrat" in an election, regardless of whether they act like one or not.

[Motown_Johnny]

27. When the most liberal justice is retiring it is inevitable that the court will move right

You need to focus on keeping Obama in office so when/if one of the conservative justices retires he will be there to move the court back to the left.

[Sebastian Doyle]

36. Why the Hell would that be inevitable?

A Liberal justice retires, you appoint one just as Liberal or better yet, more so, to replace him.

This ridiculous fucking idea that Democrats are no longer to have any sort of ideology (while Repukes are nothing BUT) is insane, and it's killing this fucking party. And by extension, this country (see the "Shit-izens United" case)

[WeDidIt]

28. Actually, I believe that's the same number you knocked on in 2008

regardless to any claim you choose to make to the contrary.

[usregimechange]

29. Ok, I will PM you evidence...

[WeDidIt]

30. Thanks for the heads up..

problem already solved.

[usregimechange]

33. Here you go...

http://demopedia.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x7704604

http://demopedia.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x7222836

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=385x179453

[usregimechange]

34. And here:

http://sync.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x7161532

[WeDidIt]

35. Nice

I still don't buy it.

[usregimechange]

39. More:

http://demopedia.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x6619053

[usregimechange]

40. And here:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x7058708

[usregimechange]

45. Give me your e-mail and I will send you video and references

[WeDidIt]

44. Cool

Edited: Okay, I believe you.

Of coursre, the entire premise of this discussion is absurd. Kagan cannot move the court to the right, nor would she even if she could.

I predict she'll be more successful at pulling Kennedy to the left than her predecesor, and that will ultimately move the court to the left, if only slightly.

There is only one chance to really move the court left and that's for one of the following to leave to court for some reason:

Alito
Roberts
Scalia
Thomas

[usregimechange]

48. This is true and god let's hope he gets to nominate a Justice in place of Scalia etc also...

thanks for the edit.

[WeDidIt]

49. Scalia and Kennedy are both getting up there

Thomas didn't look too healthy the last time I saw him, either.

And Roberts has had problems with the low pay of a CJ compared to what he's made in private practice.

Anything is possible, and is more possible if a Democratic president is sitting in the White House until at least January 20, 2013. Chances of moving the court left increase dramatically by pushing that date back to January 20, 2017 at the latest and the longer a Democrat holds the white house, the better.

And you deserved the edit.

Edited to add: If Kennedy chose to leave the court Obama should treat the "swing vote" appointment the same as Bush did and go as radically liberal as Bush went radically conservative when he replaced O'Connor.

[usregimechange]

50. Agreed, let's hope,

(not to be interpreted as a wish that their health decline)

[WeDidIt]

53. My hope is that Sotamayor and KAgan convince Kennedy to their views enough times

that Roberts just decides he's had enough and resigns to go back into the coproate world to make the big bucks.

I'd love to see an Obama CJ nomination battle.

[Hekate]

65. Roberts actually bitched about the pay?!Ha. But do you think he'd actually leave during a Dem term?

He's young enough to wait Obama out until 2016. But I surely would like to see Scalia leave -- poor Thomas would be so lonely.

It would be a wonderful wonderful thing if Obama actually got to pick three Justices. Seriously, though, Justice Ginsberg's health is very bad, and she's one of ours.

Hekate

[KonaKane]

31. Sarah Palin will thank you.

For helping her into the White House. Way to go.

[usregimechange]

37. I didn't nominate her

[KonaKane]

41. But you'll get her. Because she's gonna be running.

And if you let your incidental ire at something or other that Obama does stop your support, then you open the door to Glacierbilly White House.

Priorities.

[usregimechange]

43. Point taken but I am afraid I am less susceptible to that logic at this point

[KonaKane]

47. Your choice. Short American memories are not news.

Good luck with all that.

[Bluebear]

38. zzzzz

[WillyT]

52. Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz...

:boring:

[Individualist]

56. zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

[QC]

57. The central committee needs to send out some new talking points, stat! n/t

[izzybeans]

42. If fuzzy bunnies fly out of Palin's Ears, guess how many Peeps I will eat on Easer!

Zero. Same as last year. I love a good non-sequitur. Thanks.

[unkachuck]

51. I'm taking the pledge....we just don't get any respect....n/t

[lib2DaBone]

54. I'm out of Koolaid...and the 3-D chess game is getting fuzzy

[ecstatic]

58. FFS, do people really think Obama would nominate a right leaning person to the Supreme Court?

Obama is a progressive and a liberal. Yes, he is practical so sometimes his decisions seem centrist. But he would never nominate a right leaning person to the SC. Get real people!

[saracat]

59. Wow. Even Obama himself doesn't say he is a "liberal" ! Do you really believe that?

[HughMoran]

60. We know your opinion

[saracat]

63. Obama is a moderate. He says so himself, but this is a conversation that some refuse to

have. What happened to the Admin request for civility? It isn't civil to keep putting words in the mouths of posters and keep pushing the same assumptions. I don't "hate" anyone. I may not especially think they are praisworthy and some, like Salazar I do not "like" and didn't like him before he was Interior Sec. but "hate" ? No.

[HughMoran]

64. If I've read one, I've read 1000

:shrug:

[saracat]

66. And BTW, I haven't said anything negative about Kagan.

and I certainly didn't say that Obama would lean the Court to the right. All I said was Obama isn't a liberal. And he isn't.

[HughMoran]

68. I edited my first post

I know you're generally critical, but I'm going to take your posts at face value.

...and I don't think I've ever said Obama was a liberal either, so I can't argue with you there.

Edit: though to be fair to Obama, he may be the most liberal President since Jimmy Carter 30 years ago (my poll so far says that BC and BO were about the same.)

[Bodhi BloodWave]

62. so how many doors will you knock on when she moves it to the left?

I mean, if your willing to make a pledge one way, surely you won't have any trouble making one if it goes the other.

[usregimechange]

71. I will knock on 2x the number I previously did, if she at least moves it no where

Pledged

[johnaries]

67. Why do you think she will "move SCOTUS" to the right?

And how would that happen, anyway? I don't see how they could be moved any more to the right.

Stop regurgitating talking points and think for yourself. Sheesh!

[unblock]

69. a classic example of missing the forest for the trees

replacing a left vote with a less left vote would "shift the court to the right".

however, this is a minor shift relative to the BIG shifts that happen when a RIGHT justice is replaced by a LEFT justice or vice versa.

so the real question is, do you want a republican in charge when a LEFT justice retires? or a democrat in charge when a RIGHT justice retires?


in a dream world, perhaps you can have obama replaced by a more liberal democrat in the primaries and have a "better democrat" go on to win the general. as a practical matter, that's a very, very long shot.

hold your nose and support obama in 2012.

then feel free to push for a more liberal candidate in 2016. i know i will.

[jxnmsdemguy65]

72. Would you rather have Jeb Bush in the White House?

The Governor of America's first fascist state?

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0410/36452.html

[readmoreoften]

73. Hey that's more doors than I'll approach.

I'm in negative territory.