What Senate seats will the Dem's lose in Nov. ?

[jaysunb]

Since we keep hearing the Party will "surely" lose several Senate seats, I'd like to ask the DU experts exactly which ones will it be.

Call me crazy, but I think we may actually gain several:
Kentucky
Florida
Ohio
N. Carolina

And no, we won't be losing Ca. or Nevada. You can take that to the bank !

So Du. Who among our Party will be losing ?

:shrug:

[existentialist]

1. I agree.

I also think that if Hayworth beats McCain in the Republican primary we have a good chance of winning in Arizona.

[Bobbieo]

10. You obviously do not live in AZ!!!

[Warpy]

2. Blanche Lincoln might lose

She is not liked, won the nomination only because polling places in strong Halter districts were dropped from 42 to 2 "to save money," meaning somebody cheated her in, and she's been badly damaged in the primary.

Excuse me if I don't weep for the loss. Perhaps next time we can get a Democrat into office instead of a Blue Dog conservative.

[Art_from_Ark]

19. The problem, she would be replaced by Boozman

who, as representative from Arkansas' 3rd Congressional District, has shown that he is a true-blue (or is that true red?) dyed-in-the-wool Republican.

[Warpy]

26. Yeah, bad followed by worse

but maybe he'll be so much worse that his prospects for longevity in office will be dim.

In any case, she's in serious trouble. Halter might have won the election, so I have a strong suspicion the GOP pulled its usual dirty tricks to get her the nomination.

[Art_from_Ark]

30. So, it comes down to either Blanche

or a Northwest Arkansas Republican. And the last time we had a Northwest Arkansas Republican in the Senate, he helped lead the witch hunt against fellow Arkansan Bill Clinton.

[opihimoimoi]

3. There is good odds the GOP will have a net loss in the Senate as well as the House

This is due to Obamas growing Popularity and Success....

The Pubs are threading deep water this year....they are exposed as the Inept Party....always cynic and always a critic

das all dey do...

Dey will get their anusus plucked in Nov

[tritsofme]

7. Something about The Nile...

The Senate picture may be a little more fluid, but there simply aren't any House seats left for Democrats to win. The only truly competitive GOP held districts are Kirk's in Illinois, Castle's in Delaware, and Cao in Lousiana.

Democrats have already won all the marginal seats in 2006 and 2008, all incumbents are not going to be reelected, despite marginal improvements in Obama's ratings, should they materialize.

The realistic question is if losses will be limited to under 39, and that can't be said with any certainty at this point.

[DCBob]

11. In the House "Sabato's Crystal Ball" says +32R .. not enough to take control...

but enough to make you squirm if your a Democrat..

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/category/2010-house/

[opihimoimoi]

20. re Sabato...read his book...smart fella...as a prophet...marginal

I feel his call is valid based on his odds

but its a call, a guess, a hunch, a prediction...

meaning....its not set in granite....

Nov is 4 months....things can worsen for Obama...or it can brighten....

Can Obama pull it off despite the hugh opposition from the Party of NO? They trying their best to denigrate/ destroy him?

[DCBob]

23. Indeed. 4 months is an eternity...

But the signs are improving for the Dems.. I doubt the GOPers will take control of either chamber and their gains will be limited.

[opihimoimoi]

28. ZMART MONEY will back you up.....

:bounce:

[elocs]

12. If, or when you are wrong will you come back here to admit it?

:shrug: Or will we never hear about it again?

[opihimoimoi]

18. and if the pubs fail to take a house or two? what are the odds?

This year will differ from past elections.....

Its my GUT FEELINGs...LOL

[elocs]

25. Well, let's hope your gut is right.

I subscribe to Mark Twain's advice to expect the worse and then if something better happens I can be pleasantly surprised.

[opihimoimoi]

27. Pragmatic Realism is completely unnerstood...I lean with you w/o risking my optimism card...LOL

:beer:

[SunnySong]

4. I assume you are declaring Crist in Florida a democrat.

Cause Meeks is still in the starting gate.

[David Zephyr]

5. I think the tide has changed our way, jaysunb

I agree with you.

Here's why: I know you know that I screamed all of last year that prviate sector job creation was more important than healthcare reform (because I knew it takes time to ramp that up and that we'd be facing this election cycle) and I wish the President and Congress had made that their bigger priority. Still, having said that, the Stimulus (most of which went toward stopping the loss of municipal, state and federal jobs) has done more than most would have imagined (the bikini curve) and there is some life (albeit not much) back in consumer spending. That's one component.

The bigger component in my mind is that while Americans are not that thrilled with the progress that has been made, they have been quietly and privately scared shitless of how crazy the Republican Party has become. And I mean batshit crazy.

So, if our Party can suck it in, if we can get liberals to honestly admit that a half-loaf is far better than the alternative, if we can get out our less-than-motivated base to the polls vs their highly motivated base to vote, then with a little luck and what I call the batshitcrazy factor scaring independents and moderate Republicans, then we can stave off losses.

The states you point to are good ones.

I am confident as hell that Boxer and Reid both will be re-elected out here.

Now, let's just hope we see some good jobs reports between now in November. Americans are fair. If they feel things are improving, they won't want to switch horses.

I think you are right. Ten months ago, I would have told you that you were crazy. Not anymore.

:)

[jaysunb]

15. +1

:hi:

[DCBob]

6. AR, ND,DE,IN....

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/06/senate-forecast-after-primaries-picture.html

Dems chances are looking better by the day in both the Senate and the House.

[jaysunb]

16. This seems very reasonable (the chart)

but I still think we should be able to gain seats.

[MadBadger]

8. I think AR, IN, DE, ND are Definitely switching to Republican

[DefenseLawyer]

29. Coats isn't very strong in Indiana

He's about a hundred and has spent the last 15 years as a lobbyist. The primary was pretty bitter, although we know Republicans tend to fall in line. I haven't seen any real numbers since the ads started, but I wouldn't give Coats the nod just yet. There certainly isn't a groundswell of excitement for Dan Coats, although a lot of people were surprised to learn he hadn't died.

[DCBob]

9. After the dust settles I think GOPers will net 3 seats..

Which wont really change the dynamics much.

[madrchsod]

13. illinois is a toss up...the independent voters will decide the election.

[xchrom]

14. I dropped my crystal ball in the parking lot

On my way to shop at Niemans.

I was gonna get new one - then I saw the new
Prada shoes for men.

[jaysunb]

17. LOL !

Prada's, huh...

[David Zephyr]

22. That was funny.

:)

[one_voice]

21. Delaware....

is the only prediction I'll make. Mike Castle will win Biden's old seat. :-(

[madmax]

24. By no means scientific

but, 3 years ago NC gained 2 Dem voters, spousal unit and myself. This year another (6) son, daughter in law eligible to vote and do. In addition to other assorted relatives all Dems. Past 2 years in my tiny development of perhaps 90 homes 4 more NJ Dems.

The Yanks are coming, the Yanks are coming!