Adding Up The Democratic Math

[FBaggins]

This column has repeatedly -- some would say relentlessly -- argued since late last summer that Democrats are in real danger of losing their House majority in November. So it's only fair to analyze why top Democratic strategists, in an admittedly bad year for their party, think they still have a good chance to retain their hold on the chamber, albeit with greatly reduced numbers.

First, they figure they will pick up four seats held by Republicans. These include Michael Castle's at-large seat in Delaware and Mark Kirk's 10th District seat in Illinois (both men are running for the Senate). The strategists also believe they can defeat two incumbents in overwhelmingly Democratic districts: Joseph Cao in Louisiana's 2nd District and Charles Djou in Hawaii's 1st. They think a couple of other seats are vulnerable, including Dan Lungren's in California's 3rd and Charlie Dent's in Pennsylvania's 15th, but the first four are clearly their best shots. If Democrats can win that quartet, Republicans would have to grab 43 seats held by Democrats to score a net gain of 39, the number they need to claim the barest majority of 218-217.

Next, Democrats look at their 16 most endangered open seats and believe, based on the party's strong performances in special elections over the past 18 months, that their worst-case scenario would be to lose eight. Those 16 are AR-01, AR-02, IN-08, KS-03, LA-03, MA-10, MI-01, NH-02, NY-29, PA-07, RI-01, TN-06, TN-08, WA-03, WV-01, and WI-07.

In the Democratic calculus, if the party picks up the four Republican seats and loses just eight of its 16 most vulnerable open seats, it would be down only four at that point. That means 35 Democratic incumbents would have to lose for the House to flip. Even with a large number of theoretically vulnerable Democratic members, say 70, at least half of them would have to lose for the GOP to regain the majority.

http://www.cookpolitical.com/node/7659

[Ozymanithrax]

1. So it may depend on who counts the votes. n/t

[breadandwine]

2. Exactly. The one armed bandit electronic voting machines are going to get hacked again.

Additionally, all that math can be thrown away because 72% of Republicans are certain they will vote but on 49% of Democrats. That spells tsunami for the GOP.


It's going to be a Republican tidal wave because the GOP is energized and we're not.

Even in 2008 the exit polls and final vote totals didn't match at all. Obama should have won by much, much more and the servers were hacked AGAIN.

Nice math in the article.

Now kiss your ass goodbye because the GOP is going to take over Capitol Hill and start impeachment proceedings again.

Then in 2012 they are going to say that Obama should be replaced since he isn't getting anything done........

And tidal waves of cash are flooding into the GOP campaigns and the legislation to control corporate cash is going to be filibustered forever.


Meanwhile, we continue bringing a knife to a gunfight.

[MoonRiver]

3. Next, Democrats can count on Republics to send out the most bat shit crazy,

hate mongering idiots in their ranks to spew forth vile, offensive garbage to the main stream media. :crazy:

[sendero]

4. Surprise..

... the Treasury thinks the economy is turning around. The generals in Afghanistan and Iraq are sure we can "win". The Democratic analysts think we can hold on to the house.

As if any of these people could say otherwise no matter what they actually think.