Democrats Ready an October Surprise for the Overconfident GOP

[DearAbby]

Republicans have been talking for months as if at least a partial takeover of Congress is a virtual certainty, but a new survey and analysis released by Democracy Corps today not only shows the election tightening, but also a growing possibility that Republicans may yet snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

The Democracy Corps survey showed a 6 point movement towards the Democrats. This is in line with the recently released NBC News/Wall Street Journal and ABC News/Washington Post poll which both revealed a movement towards the Democrats. As they pointed out in their analysis, there is recent historical precedent for elections shifting in the final month, “This is not a fool’s errand. In the 1998 election, we conducted national polls starting in September to see if Democrats could push back against the Republican overreach on Ken Starr and impeachment, as Democrats faced the prospect of historic losses in both the House and Senate. Only two weeks before the election did the plates shift and a Democratic counter-message on impeachment became effective in our polls. In the end, Democrats lost no net seats in Senate, gained five House seats and Newt Gingrich resigned.”

More:
http://www.politicususa.com/en/democrats-october-surprise

[Deep13]

1. Surprise! You guys lost.

Hopefully

[SpiralHawk]

3. Surprise, Repulbicons lose, America wins!

[sfwriter]

7. The small man screaming in his crotch is a tea bagger, right?

I'm trying to decipher the message.

[IndianaJoe]

2. Things will tighten up a lot more as people begin to focus

on the elections. Americans are generally to busy trying to struggle along with the problems of life (many of which the Republicans have created) to pay much attention until the day before they are supposed to vote.

I predict things won't be as bad as a lot here think.

[arcane1]

4. Despite outspending us 7 to 1

:rofl:

[butterfly77]

6. That's what will

make it so sweet,and shut the damn media and pundits mouth about the money as though our votes mean nothing.

I want to see them stumbling and bumbling that night trying to explain it..

[onehandle]

5. Yeah, things started tightening up in 2002 and 2004.

And we saw headlines like this that October.

[Name removed]

9. Deleted message

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[onehandle]

10. Just keeping it real, as the kids would say.

Actually that's probably a dated expression.

But seriously, in 2002 and 2004 October were 'Democratic Comeback' months.

October 2006 was a 'Republican Comeback' month.

No comebacks were forthcoming.

I am sure that we will lose the House, but not the Senate.

Nate Silver will back me up.


If it makes you feel any better, I believe that Obama will win in 2012 and that we will take back the House that year.

Unless the economy slows again. Then we are royally fucked.

[tigereye]

13. Nate Silver is hardly ever wrong... not good.

[stopbush]

8. Which is why the tradmed narrative has suddenly shifted from

who is up in the polls to the fact that the Rs are awash in non-RNC raised cash.

This summer, we heard how the Ds were out-raising the Rs like crazy, but that it might all be for naught because the country was riding a RW-tea bagger wave into November. Oh, the ANGER out there!! What's a bankroll when popular sentiment is against you?

Now, it's suddenly about who has the cash on hand to run negative ads on a national scale, as if the amount of $ you have to spend guarantees victory. Ask Meg Whitman how her millions are doing beating "a-dollar-three-eighty" Jerry Brown. Ask Carly Fiorina how her $ is doing against Barbara Boxer.

The tradmed is desperately in search of a narrative that it can haul out to explain the election, because the election is not going to go the way they've predicted, unless - and this is a real possibility - there's the usual hanky panky at the polling places that always seems to benefit the Rs. Right now, they're building a narrative that the RW $ will win, with a Plan B narrative that the election ending up sooo close that it was a miracle the Rs pulled it out, what with that late D surge.

[LiberalAndProud]

11. As we near election day, polls move in Democrats' direction.

Do polls measure movement or adjust for accuracy, I wonder?

[tigereye]

12. boy, let's hope so - the numbers aren't looking so good

Reps are being handed tons of cash from every corporate organization known to man. :(

[Zorra]

14. Oh, boy. I'll go get the snacks.

:popcorn:
:beer: