What happens after the tax deal falls through?

[cali]

OK, it may get marginally tweaked and pass, but it's entirely possible that it won't get the votes. All three of my Congressional reps are dead set against it. On the repuke side, Jim Demint has said he'll vote against it and in the House, quite a few reps have stated their opposition.

So if it does get scuttled, what happens next?

[demwing]

1. Then, we have to assume, based on previous behavior...

that Obama will blame the base, ask the Republicans to work with him to figure out how to "fix" it for the wealthiest Americans, take credit for whatever half assed solution gets put forward, and 30% of DU will cluck like a chicken and pretend shit is shinola.

[BlueJazz]

19. Aha!....You sound like a person who knows DU very well.

:) :)

[BzaDem]

2. They'll just wait till January, where the Republicans will strip all the Obama stimulus extensions

and unemployment insurance, and just pass a bill extending the Bush tax cuts.

Not sure why people want that. If the House wanted power here, they probably shouldn't have lost 60 seats.

[cali]

3. uh, guess what? The dems control the Senate

that ain't gonna happen.

Not sure why people can't figure something so simple out.

[BzaDem]

4. You don't think there are 13 Democrats that won't vote to extend all the tax cuts for 2 years?

See, the thing about the election is we also happened to lose 6 Senate Seats.

[cali]

5. nope.

I don't think that'll happen.

[BzaDem]

6. Well I agree the number won't be 13. Probably more like 20

Initially, they'll pretend to "fight" and repeat the same failed vote over and over again. Then, as people start to blame Obama for having to pay thousands more per year (after seeing their paycheck cut), you will magically start to see Senator after Senator flip, just as Republicans knew they would.

Anyone who thinks the ultimate outcome of this is going to be a permanent expiration of all the tax cuts (or Republicans caving on the upper end cuts) is dreaming. Unfortunately, they probably won't figure this out until its too late, and we lose the more progressive aspects of the package.

[cali]

7. There are no progressive aspects to this package

[BzaDem]

8. Nancy Pelosi, Anthony Weiner, Alan Grayson, et al all disagree with you.

Sure, they oppose the whole package because of the Republican parts, but each and every one of them has said that they really like certain parts of the package.

[TBF]

10. Who wouldn't like extending unemployment insurance during the holidays -

when the alternative is people out on the street? That is not "progressive" - that is simply human. That should be done regardless of anything else going on. Why can't Obama use surplus money to fund that?

[BzaDem]

12. Oh, I'm sure they could get a 1 month extension to get through Christmas.

That is far different than a 13 month extension.

When this expires, the 99-week limit turns into a 26-week limit. Republicans would love this, since people are not going to blame Republicans. They are going to blame Obama, because he's President.

(Though I wasn't talking just about unemployment benefits.)

[cali]

11. They oppose it.

It's so short sighted of you and those like you to support this. There is no doubt that the repukes will use this as a vehicle to decimate social programs if it passes. And yes, they'll be able to do it.

[BzaDem]

13. They oppose the deal overall. They support the Democratic provisions of the bill.

Anthony Weiner was on TV doing so enthusiastically. He did not support the whole package, but your contention that none of the parts of the package are progressive probably goes against the thoughts of most elected progressives.

"And yes, they'll be able to do it."

It's interesting how you take as a given the ability for Republicans to slash social programs unilaterally, but you don't think they have the power to force all the tax cuts to be extended (and that Obama could just get a better deal by "fighting" and waiting until Republicans control the House).

[TBF]

9. thank you. rec this post. nt

[DemocratSinceBirth]

15. There Is Another Scenario. One The Republicans Would Like Even Better

Nothing gets done. I repeat nothing gets done. The economy worsens. Unemployment rises to fifteen percent, twenty percent. There is literally chaos and President Obama gets the blame. The Republican nominee shatters, whomever he or she is, Nixon's 72 landslide and wins every state's Electoral College Votes and gets > 65% of the pop vote. The Repubs increase their margin in the Senate to 70 and the House to 350.

[BzaDem]

16. Remember though, some wouldn't mind Obama not getting re-elected (or would actively work against him

in the general). Some others don't care either way. (I do not mean to put the OP in either of these groups.)

Though I would disagree with Republicans getting 70 seats in the Senate and 350 in the House even under your scenario. But I know what you mean, and you are correct that doing "nothing" is a dream scenario for the Republicans if they can get away with it.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

17. If Unemployment Starts To Rise Again President Obama Can Not Be Reelected

Nor could any Democrat. It's fanciful to believe otherwise.

What if there's a double dip recession and unemployment goes to 12%?

[BzaDem]

18. I'm agreeing with you about Obama.

Though there are easily plenty of Democratic Senators and House members who live in safe states/districts that would win re-election at 12% unemployment. Republicans might get 60 seats, but not 70. That's all I was saying.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

20. I Agree

But in my apocaliptic scenario the Democrats would lose every competitive race, regardless how marginally competitive it was. People forget there was a fear of a Republican filibuster proof Senate in the late 90s during the Lewinsky brouhaha that was averted by Clinton's survival skills and a great economy.

I don't think folks here can imagine how bad it could get. We can lose everything we worked for.

[Donnachaidh]

36. not if the ui isn't considered -- no

All the tantrums in the world isn't going to change THAT fact.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

14. IMHO, This Is What Will Happen

The compromise fails. The market will definitely sell off because of the uncertainty. There will be chaos as millions of Americans lose their unemployment benefits. Everybody's taxes go up. Already historically high rates of unemployment start rising again; ten percen ,twelve percent fifteen percent? The Republicans come back next year with the same bill except goodies like unemployment insurance extensions and payroll tax cuts are missing . It passes. Either we are stuck with a crappy bill or Obama vetoes it. The Repugs don't care either way. It's a win-win situation for them. They get their issue or tax cuts for their rich cronies. All the while the economy is worsening and Obama is getting the blame.

This is chess. When you make a move you need to anticipate your opponent's move.

I wish everybody here would just game this out.

[KharmaTrain]

21. Watch For The White Smoke...Calling Monty Hall...

There's gonna be a deal if it takes all the way until the Senators are taking off for the airport (remember, their vacations are the real motivation here). While I fully support derailing this whole mess, there's too much at stake for the principals involved...they're going to get a deal worked and those who are objecting will either get some pork thrown at them to grab their vote or told to pound sand.

For shits and giggles let's say (hope) that there is enough resistance...not only from our side, the unhinged wingnuts aren't happy cause they wanted permanent cuts and no UE. Then we're back to point zero and a stand-off as the rushpublicans will stiffen for what they really want or threaten to shut down the government. And, ya know...that may not be such a bad thing right now.

As far as this administration...any vote that rejects this deal will be painted as a major failure and how inept this administration has become. The corporate media will countdown to when everyone's taxes go up and those whose benefits run out will learn the fine art of dumpster diving. No matter the scenario, not very pretty.

[Imajika]

22. The tax deal will not fall through...

Your witnessing the theater. The part where the activist base of the Democratic Party thrashes and screams for awhile at Obama's deal with Republicans.

In a week or so, the dust will settle and there will be plenty of votes in the House and Senate to pass the bill.

The bill will pass, sites like Democratic Underground will bemoan how easily this flies through and throw a whole host of Democrats (including Obama) under the bus.

The Republicans take over in January, start doing obnoxious things, everyone gets pissed, Obama stands up against some stuff they are pushing, everyone rallies around Obama again, the President is now out from under the bus, tax cut deal is largely forgotten, all is well again with the world.

[demwing]

23. Sad, but probably true

All the world is a stage, politics doubly so

[DemocratSinceBirth]

24. I Don't Think The Majority Has Ever Filibustered Itself In History

The ironic thing is it's more in the Republicans interest to have it fail than the Democrats. The economy will tank as a result of the chaos and uncertainty and the Dems and Pres. Obama will get the blame.

[BzaDem]

25. Oh, it's happened, at least temporarily.

In 1979 I think, two Democratic Senators filed 500 amendments prior to cloture, so when cloture was invoked (by a gigantic margin), there were still 500 amendments to deal with. At the time, there was no limit to post-cloture consideration of amendments, and these two Senators abused this loophole to force the Senate into 13 days of reading nonsense. Eventually, Byrd and then-Vice-President Mondale took a creative interpretation of the rules and steamrolled over the two (and the Senate officially changed its rules to limit post-cloture time to 30 hours total).

[DemocratSinceBirth]

27. Back To The More Interesting Question

Everyhting is contingent on the health of the economy. President Obama, the Democratic party's fate, and our fate is inextricably linked to it. If the economy strengthens Obama is strengthened. If it weakens he is weakened.

[Bucky]

30. Interesting.

Do you recall the issue they were trying to hijack? Not that Panama Canal thing, was it?

[BzaDem]

32. Some price deregulation bill for natural gas.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2005/5/14/19217/9373 (the 1977 section)

[Dawgs]

28. May not.

Yes, the tax bill may pass, but I'm not sure it's going to be as easy as you claim.

It's not just the "activist base" this time that's angry this time. Many, like himself, gave Obama the benefit of the doubt much longer than we should have. He lost me for good. It will take quite a lot to get me back.

I'm not sure "everyone" will rally around Obama again. This appears to be a deal breaker for many us. The tax cut compromise, along with single payer, Afganistan, and quite a few other things have added up to more than a lot of us can take.

I don't know which world you are living in, but all has not been well in the liberal/progressive/democratic world since Obama was elected. Why would it change now - when his supporters are at their angriest?

[BzaDem]

29. I'm not sure how someone who voted for a candidate that supported escalation in Afghanistan

and specifically called Single Payer "too extreme" in the month before the election, could possibly be surprised that he did what he said he was going to do.

On tax cuts, he made 2 promises. To not raise taxes on the middle class by one penny, and to raise taxes on the rich. Since either both or neither had to happen, he had to break one promise by definition. The fact that he kept the promise to not raise taxes on 98% (rather than break that promise) also doesn't seem too surprising.

[Dawgs]

35. Nice try, but it was his deal with the insurance companies to drop the PO that started it for me.

Sorry. Breaking a promise as big as tax cuts for the rich (when he didn't have to do it) is just too much for me.

I'm done with him.

[BzaDem]

38. You'll be back sooner than you think. n/t

[Imajika]

33. Meh, everything is supposedly a deal breaker...

You'll be back on board. I don't mean to take your comments lightly, but it is what it is. The alternative is just so much worse. There will be many fights and most of the time President Obama will be battling some noxious Republican idea and you'll find common cause with him again.

Obama will stand up for something, everyone will be saying he's back to being the old Obama from campaign 2008, people will say he has his "fight" back, progressives and liberals will unify around him as strongly as ever, all will be forgotten and we move on to the next battle.

This is just how it's going to go. The deal will pass, everything your seeing now is really just a show.

[Dawgs]

37. Sorry. You couldn't be more wrong.

Of course I will agree with him at times. I've never claimed otherwise.

But, what he has done so far I can not forgive. He will have to change more than just a little bit to get me back.

I love how you claim to know the future with such certainty, considering none of those things you predict have happened in the past; in fact, it's been just the opposite.

[Ganja Ninja]

26. Demint will vote against it.

That's to be expected. I doubt the GOP will support anything Obama is likely to sign, no matter how much of a give away it is to them. All the more reason to scuttle it. If the Democrats have to pass it then the Democrats need to write it.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

31. So The Republicans Are In A Win-Win Situation

They can vote for legislation they like and get the legislation they like or they can scuttle the legislation they like and blame Obama when the economy crashes.

[Ganja Ninja]

34. No the idea is they will let the Dem's pass the bill they wrote and then blame them for the deficit

and the further damage to the economy it will cause.

[Statistical]

39. Nothing. Not enough time before end of year. Thus taxes go up on everyone.

Yeah the rich get hit with a 3% hike on marginal tax rates however....

* taxes go up by $400 on everyone (making work pay credit expires).
* people with children are hit with $600 per child increase in taxes ($400 vs $100 child tax credit).
* the bottom tax bracket goes from 10% to 15%.
* those who are married get hit with the marriage penalty.
* 25% bracket goes to 28%.

Even worse those who have been unemployed more than 26 weeks will instantly see their unemployment get cutoff. Not reduced or delayed but go to $0.00.