Honduras Congress debating restitution of Zelaya at this moment

[rabs]

4:15 Eastern time. This will go on for quite a while because a lot of congress people want to have their say. Live on

http://www.radioglobohonduras.com/

Congress under heavy security by police and military

[Peace Patriot]

1. It would be a smart move on their part to restore Zelaya to office,

for several reasons. He would more than likely not accept--because he would see it as lending legitimacy to the coup--and they could then use his refusal to continue trying to paint him as the bad guy. And if they succeeded in convincing him to return to office--not at all likely, but not out of the question (for instance, he might do it to try to protect Hondurans from further repression, in whatever ways he can, in the limited time he has)--then they would have scored on the corpo-fascist media front, as having "restored Honduran democracy" or "having restored the government's legitimacy," even if he got them to agree not to blatantly use it that way. They (and the US) would also use to try to bludgeon Brazil and others into conformance. It would be sold as "a return to normalcy."

In any case, it would be a win-win for the oligarchy and the U.S. to now offer to re-install him for the final month of his term (after they robbed him and the Honduran people of six months of his leadership). Those six months would get drowned in the corpo-fascist 'news' monopoly 'river of forgetfulness,' and Zelaya, in refusing it, would get further painted as obstreperous and "hard line" and opposed to "reconciliation," or, if he accepts, would get used as window-dressing. It would be pretty much a lose-lose for him.

However, it would surprise me if they vote for Zelaya's return, because their tactics so far have stressed violent power, bullying, threats, lies and complete impunity on the violation of human and civil rights and the rule of law. They clearly have WANTED to make this impression. They are much like Bushwhacks. Their method is "shock and awe"--instilling terror. It would surprise me if they want to change that impression, because that's all they've got, really, to maintain their rule. It remains to be seen whether that's how the Obama administration wants to be perceived in Latin America--as a bully power, ready to rip the region's democracies to pieces, and placing war assets all over the place, to threaten or even wage war upon its invented 'enemies' (to gain control of their oil). Hard not to get that impression, I'm afraid. If the Honduran legislature invites Zelaya back, then I think we will know that the Obama administration is smarting from some of the damage they have inflicted on themselves, throughout the region, and maybe is re-thinking their tactics. I don't think the Honduran legislature or anybody in the coup government is doing anything that is not directed from Washington (--though whether from the White House or not is still somewhat unclear).

[rabs]

2. Zelaya's restitution fails

to no one's surprise.


As of 7 p.m. Honduran time, congressional vote ratified Decree 141-2009 that called for the removal of Zelaya and the naming of Micheletti to take over the presidency.

The vote at 7 p.m. was 66 votes for (the Decree) and 8 against. Simple majority of the 128 legislators was enough. (Numbers will change as voting was still going on.)

This leaves Hillary/Obama/Arias/Shannon/Kelly up the creek, because Point 5 of the Tegucigalpa/San Jose Accord they so pushed called for the restitution of Zelaya.

It also eliminates the expected refusal by Zelaya, which would left him as the "bad guy" in the eyes of the coup apologists in Washington.

[Downwinder]

3. So we have:

A Constitutional President,
An Unconstitutional President-elect,
and a Military Dictator.

Hillary, what a mess you've made.

[rabs]

4. Golpe # 3

First golpe -- June 28

Second golpe -- Nov. 29

Third golpe -- Dec. 2

Gorilobo will have to watch his back from now on.

[EFerrari]

5. Under heavy 'security". That's one way to put it, I guess.

I'm afraid for Mel because they will never forgive him for fighting back.

[clear eye]

6. "Under heavy security" or heavy THREAT?? n/t

[rabs]

7. Both. Cops kept Zelaya supporters well away from the Congress building

Final vote was 111 against, 14 for.

Resistance already has announced it will not accept the Lobo presidency.

Lobo will be going into his presidency on Jan. 27 with a virtual lame-duck status because majority of nations will not accept him either.

[Judi Lynn]

8. Hope these countries will stand their ground, not compromise. n/t

[Judi Lynn]

9. Honduras: the devastating effects of the Coup

Honduras: the devastating effects of the Coup
Friday, 4 December 2009, 10:01 am
Press Release: Council on Hemispheric Affairs
Honduras: the devastating effects of the June 28th coup on the Honduran economy are not likely to be undone by illegitimate elections

by COHA Research Associate Michaela D'Ambrosio

Whether one sides with the ousted President Manuel Zelaya or with the interim leader Roberto Micheletti, there is no denying the devastating impact of the June 28 anti-Zelaya coup d’etat on the Honduran economy. With the November 29 election of Porfirio ‘Pepe’ Lobo of the conservative Partido Nacional, backers of the status quo hope that Honduras can resolve its conflicts and begin a new path to economic recovery. However, even with Micheletti briefly stepping down during the election period to add much needed validity to the process, the legitimacy of the ballot and the integrity of Lobo are both ruinously compromised as the elections were held without Zelaya’s participation and thus carried out under an unlawful framework.

While Washington has troubled much of the world community by giving the de facto government the go ahead and recognizing the outcome of Sunday’s election, a majority of Latin American countries will not acknowledge Lobo as the legitimate winner of the presidential ballot. Hope for an economic recovery in the near future has been all but squandered unless Congress votes today to return Zelaya to office, which will allow him to hand over the Presidency to his successor in January.

Honduras, a country with a long history of extreme poverty and exploitation at the hands of a corrupt American-run banana industry, has developed a stable but patently unjust political environment, resulting in an attractive investment environment and a fairly prosperous tourism industry, but a shortage of social justices. The country still faces ominous development challenges, evidenced by a poverty rate of over 60%, an infant mortality level of 31 per 1,000 and chronic malnutrition cases of about one third of all children under five years of age. Traditional struggles over a fight for economic survival have been aggravated by the global economic downturn, as well as by Honduras’ ongoing political crisis. While, the country experienced a respectable economic growth rate of roughly 7% under Zelaya in the past two years, estimates project that it will shrink by 4.5% in 2009, most likely because of the worldwide suspension of aid and investment due to the coup. The ouster of President Zelaya plunged Honduras into a state of internal turmoil that has cost the country $50 million a day over the past five months, with a disproportionate burden falling on the country’s poor. If Lobo is successfully seated, he would need the backing of the international community to mend Honduras economy, support that he is currently lacking. It is easy to say that Honduras’ current economic strife is far from over.

Zelaya’s Economic Success—Not Appreciated by All
Since Zelaya took office in January 2006, Honduras experienced a gradual improvement in its social and economic indicators, including poverty reduction, a decrease in inequality, and increased educational and development opportunities. The country’s gross domestic product (GDP) in recent years showed some promise, growing by 6.6% in 2006 and 6.3% in 2007; however it declined in 2008 as a result of the world economic crisis. President Zelaya’s social and economic policies gradually decreased the number of households living in poverty from 65.8% in 2005 to 60.2% in 2007. Under Zelaya, several social initiatives increased educational opportunities, such as the abolition of school fees which resulted in about 450,000 more children attending school, while 25% more students are receiving free school lunches.

Zelaya’s gradual success in targeting reforms for the poor was far from appreciated by all, and his mounting interest in catering to the poor was increasingly resented by the country’s wealthy elite. Honduras is a country ruled by a small group of privileged figures who, in the absence of a large middle class, control almost every aspect of the government, economy and society. Historically, the ruling oligarchy chose the president and legislators in a political process that was driven by class factors. According to Ramon Romero, professor of economics at the National Autonomous University, power in Honduras is concentrated in the hands of about 100 people from approximately 25 different families. These elites originally supported Zelaya because he was one of them and represented their interests; but when he became increasingly sensitive to the injustice that afflicted Honduran public life, his former boosters turned on him as it became clear that he was breaking with tradition by implementing socially-conscious policies. This constituted a transformative shift in his support, winning him support from the poor, but resentment from the rich.

More:
http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/WO0912/S00046.htm