PA Senate Poll: Toomey 45% Sestak 36%

[WI_DEM]

There was another poll over weekend showing the race closer, but I really think this race will be much closer than the polls indicate. There are lots of undecideds, and this poll is weird in that it shows African-Americans giving Toomey 23% of their votes! while Sestak only gets 48% and the rest are undecided. I can't see Toomey getting 23% of African-American vote.


PoliticsPA / Municipoll
9/15-16/10; 912 likely voters, 3.2% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(Municipoll release via )

Pennylvania

2010 Senate
45% Toomey (R), 36% Sestak (D) (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Joe Sestak: 34 / 30
Pat Toomey: 38 / 35

http://www.scribd.com/doc/37782440/Politics-Pa-Municipoll-Pa-Senate-Survey

[Robbins]

1. I agree

Toomey getting 23 percent of the black vote raises questions.Again I think Sestak should not be written off.

[Ozymanithrax]

2. Depends on the poll.

Rasmussen has it 39% to 46% Sep 16
Criticak Knights has it 36% to 40% Sep 16

These are both on electoralvote.com.

[vaberella]

17. No matter how you cut it Toomey is still ahead and that's the point and the problem. n/t

[AlinPA]

3. Toomey and the Koch groups totally swamped the TV with ads that started 4 months ago.

Here in W. PA there are as many as 8 Toomey ads to every Sestak ad on local channels that I see. Sestak has started some ads, but not many.

[NewJeffCT]

4. It's a good sign that looney Toomey is still well under 50%

that means Sestak can make up ground.

[Recursion]

5. Sestak is pro-choice and pro-gun-control

Those are both going to hurt him away from the Schuylkill.

[wisteria]

11. Frankly, I think from Harrisburg and West he will have a very difficult time.

There are Dem's up in these areas, but they vote moderate and have been leaning Republican the last few years.
It is funny that with all the Tea Party talk about outsider candidates, Toomey the very example of an insider, seems to have the upper hand, but Sestak, the true outsider and the guy willing to stand up to his party, is trailing. The Tea Party is saying they will not endorse in the campaigns here, but they will circulate voter information to "educate" the voters on the candidates stands on issues that concern the Tea Party. You know who their choice is, but they cannot formally endorse him because they would look like hypocrites.
Sestak is not a favorite of mine, but I will still do all I can to get him elected, which is a change in commitment from a couple of months ago. I do not want to see the Democrats lose the Senate-especially to the likes of Tea Party candidates and Toomey.

[AlinPA]

21. W. PA is loaded with teabaggers.

[impik]

6. Sestak was a huge mistake. HUGE. But as long as "progressives" are happy, who gives a damn

[KingFlorez]

7. Specter would have been even further down

Sestak still has a chance, whereas Specter would have been finished.

[wisteria]

8. I don't see it that way. Specter had name recognition and a moderate record.

That translates to more comfortability. Sestak is too much of a contrast against Toomey. It is way to easy to paint him as nice, but too Liberal, and that is what they have been doing especially in Western PA.

[KingFlorez]

13. That's very inaccurate

Specter would have lost a lot of votes because of his party switch, Republicans who voted for him before would have supported him and a lot of Democrats wouldn't have voted for him either.

[wisteria]

9. I would say big mistake. But, Progressives think this is what people want- a real contrast.

The problem is that in PA most voters are middle of the road and older, so the Progressive message does not play that well.

[Recursion]

14. We'll see. I think we should have kept Specter.

I don't think pulling a tea-party-in-reverse helps us. But I could be wrong.

[AlinPA]

22. Democrats had been voting against Specter for decades; so they voted against him

again (as I did) in the primary. His problem was that he changed only for the election and tried to sucker the Democrats.

[Cosmocat]

10. No, he wasn't ...

Specter was no better chance to win, or he would have won the primary ... And, frankly, the MFer is all that is wrong with politics in terms fo doing whatever he can just to keep his job ... I hated Lieberman with a passion for what he did, I wasn't about to support Specter when he did the same thing ...

All of that aside, Sestak is a good man, a flat out good man - smart, honest, decent, and as accomplished as you can get ...

Toomey is up because he has been running for this job for half a decade now, and it is an election with a fairly hard wind at the Rs back and against the Ds ...

[wisteria]

12. Your comments are all conjecture and the primary results do not

prove elect-ability in the general election. It is a well known fact that only die hard voters come out during primaries. That is why the Tea Party candidates have been able to score wins.
However, I will not say anymore on the subject. The primary wars are over and it is time to move on.

[Cosmocat]

15. And, your comments aren't conjecture ???

Sorry, it is even greater conjecture that a candidate that lost the primary would be a stronger general election candidate ...

[Recursion]

18. Because Sestak will apparently "fight", and "stand up to" the GOP

Though I can't ever get anybody to tell me what exactly that means.

[blue neen]

19. I respectfully disagree.

Sestak is a good fit for the state of Pennsylvania. Toomey has had a WHOLE lot more money to run ads (check with Club for Growth)...not to mention that his good buddy, Richard Mellon Scaife owns most of the newspapers in western PA.

There are many, many undecideds in PA right now. Other polling shows the race to be much closer.

[vaberella]

16. Sestak doesn't have much time to turn this around.

I was for Specter at the end of it, since I didn't see that much difference except that Specter did have the name recognition and he could run on the side of moderation since he once was a Republican.

[BeyondGeography]

20. Sestak's unfavorables are low, but so are his favorables

Suggests that he has a lot of campaigning to do; is he asleep?

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

23. Yeah, weren't people counting Sestak out when he was down 20 points against Specter?

I wouldn't be too quick to believe these numbers.