New MA '12 Senate Poll: Brown will be hard to defeat (many think he's a moderate)

[WI_DEM]

Dems should unite behind a nominee and get to it because he hasn't been all that independent in the senate. He pretty much has toed the GOP line:


As Scott Brown's first year in the Senate comes to a close he remains an extremely formidable political presence and leads five hypothetical 2012 reelection opponents by margins ranging anywhere from 7 to 19 points.

Vicki Kennedy (48-41) and Deval Patrick (49-42) do the best against Brown, each trailing by 7 points. Ed Markey trails by 10 (49-39), Mike Capuano does by 16 (52-36), and Stephen Lynch does by 19 (49-30).

Brown is one of the most popular Senators in the country, with 53% of voters approving of his job performance and only 29% disapproving. He continues to have incredible appeal to independents, with whom his approval spread is 61/25. He also breaks nearly even among Democrats with 35% approving and 41% disapproving of what he's done so far. The only other Republican Senators PPP's polled on this year with that much appeal to Democrats are Olympia Snowe, Susan Collins, and Lindsey Graham. What sets Brown apart from that trio is he's managed to generate that popularity across party lines without antagonizing voters in his own party- Republicans give him a 74/13 approval.

PPP's final poll for the special election found Brown defeating Martha Coakley by 32 points with independents. He's looking at a pretty comparable margin in all of these match ups, leading Lynch by 34, Kennedy by 33, Capuano by 31, Markey by 30, and Patrick by 29 with them. The other key aspect of Brown's victory in January was that we found him winning 19% of the Democratic vote. He actually exceeds that in each of these match ups, getting 28% of Dems against Capuano, 25% against Lynch and Markey, and 22% against Kennedy and Patrick.

Beyond the fact that the election is 23 months away these numbers should also be taken with a grain of salt because the folks we tested, with the exception of Patrick, aren't all that well known. 50% of voters have no opinion of Lynch, 47% don't know Capuano, 37% are ambivalent toward Markey, and even with Kennedy 29% don't express an opinion. Obviously if any of these folks, or someone not tested on this poll, emerged as the Democratic nominee they'd have much more visibility and opportunity to make the case that they'd be better than Brown.

For now though it seems Brown has done pretty much everything right- he's just as strong with independents as he was in January, stronger with Democrats, and he's accomplished those things without ticking off the base. It would be hard to find a politician who's had a more impressive year.

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/

[bigdarryl]

1. The problem is this mother fucker might get primaried by the tea baggers

and if he loosed to that tea bagger the democrats can get that seat back

[seaglass]

6. A lot of teabaggers lost in MA in November - badly. We may elect

those who appear as moderate R's but we don't elect the crazies.

I do not think a teabagger could beat him in a primary in MA.

[WI_DEM]

7. It's not looking like he will be primaried and not at all sure he would lose

since even among republicans in MA he seems to be strong.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

26. Maybe not. He did their bidding by being the pawn in the blocking of the unemployment benefits.

This actually may be good because he's going to have to figure out how to balance dealing with the Teabaggers and the Republican Establishment. He's going to have a tough time.

I want the citizens of Massachusetts to realize that it was HE who helped the Republicans block unemployment benefits for tens of thousands of people in that state who lost their jobs through no fault of their own.

[Freddie Stubbs]

2. That is assuming that he can win the GOP nomination

[PADemD]

3. I think they took this poll before the 60,000 people contacted his office to complain.

GOP Senator Scott Brown channels Scrooge: blocks unemployment benefits, then throws swanky party

Read more: http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/2010/12/02/2010-12-02_gop_senator_scott_brown_channels_scrooge_blocks_unemployment_benefits_then_throw.html#ixzz16yDLGMtv

[Tippy]

8. Do you recon he will keep his clothes on?????????

[merbex]

4. The more he keeps up with the sarcastic comments about

going back to DC to vote on 'silly' food safety legislation and votes against unemployment benefits extensions the more his numbers will drop...the MA State Dem Party will start to focus on making Scotty boy as foolish and as narcissistic as he really is.

We up in here MA had a lot on our plate this pass Nov. but Scotty boy will get the full force of our attention in 2 years.

[still_one]

5. I hate to say this, but we haven't learned a thing since the loss of Kennedy's seat. In fact just

the opposite. At a minimum they should get rid of Tim Kaine, and replace him with someone who knows what is happening

[bigdarryl]

11. good point why the fuck is he still DNC Chairman anyway

[still_one]

13. I think it is due to friendship, not what is good for the country or party /nt

[tabbycat31]

18. Kaine needs to be fired

At our DFA meeting last night, I suggested that Russ Feingold take his place.

[ProSense]

9. From the RW Boston Herald

Unemployed Bay Staters blast Scott Brown over benefits

Brown was a fluke. If Democrats turnout, and based on the midterms they will, then all Democrats need is a solid candidate.

[leftynyc]

24. Anyone come to mind? (n/t)

[TayTay]

10. Give the devil his due, he did have a good year

But, he can be beaten using the model that Deval Patrick used for his re-election. However, we have to get busy and start now to tell the truth about this empty suit so that independents stop believing that he is some sort of moderate.

[Mass]

12. Way too early to tell. Once a decent coverage of his action as a Senator will

start, the results will not be that great, I think. But we need candidates for that.

(This said, the man knows how to manipulate the media. This morning, one of the local NBC affiliates was explaining how he was trying to get an unemployment benefit bill passed. Not a word of the fact that he objected to the law in the first place.

[Blaukraut]

21. There will be no decent coverage of his actions

Our local media are pathetically in love with our lesser Senator. I don't see how that wil change in the course of the next two years. Ugh, I saw this coming as soon as he won the special election. We now have a louse in our pelt we will not be able to shake off.

[Mass]

22. Not necessarily, but for that, Dems have to get out of the woods.

The campaign has not yet started, and Dems are keeping quiet (just wonder why?)

BTW, today's Globe has a decent column by Vennoachi about the unemployment bill and Brown. Too little, unfortunately, but good to read.

[KingFlorez]

14. He's not getting re-elected in Massachusetts in a Presidential year

The Democrats do need to work hard are tearing him down, though. They've got to get his approval way down.

[FBaggins]

23. Assuming that the economy continues to improve

and the President's numbers with it... that's right.

Coattails plus presidential turnout should be enough to take him down.

Assuming we can get behind a decent candidate.

[bluestateguy]

15. No more polls

The election is over.

[Freddie Stubbs]

16. 2012 is just around the corner

[DarthDem]

17. Laughable

This clown is toast. Gone. Done. Out.

[wisteria]

19. This polling represents a true disconnect between the actual accomplishments of Sen. Brown,

and his true positions on issues that matter to the middle class, and how voters perceive him. Why are the voters so misinformed about Brown? Could it be the press does not bother with details when covering this man? The coverage seems to be all about keeping the Brown myth alive, instead of covering the real man and his votes.

[Arkana]

25. That's basically it.

Plus, the local papers give him such sloppy blowjobs in every piece they cover him in. EVERY PAPER in this state loves him, and I can't figure out why.

He'll be without teabagger money or foot soldiers this time, though--let's see how far that gets him. You can't bus in votes.

[AlinPA]

20. Incredible. He seems to vote in lockstep with the repigs. nt

[Jennicut]

27. On the bright side, Lieberman looks in pretty bad shape here in Connecticut.

Brown has the same rep as a lot of so called moderate Repubs in New England do. I would say he manipulates the media well. I think unlike many people here that he will be very tough to beat.