"Dems who disapproved of Obama’s job performance were unwilling to vote against him for re-election"

[Clio the Leo]

One good spin of a poll deserves another, right?

Poll Suggests Risks for Obama if Liberals Feel Taken for Granted
By NATE SILVER

A new poll from Marist University is suggestive of a potential worst-case scenario for President Obama. As he endures criticism from his left over his handling of the tax policy debate with Republicans, his approval rating has declined among liberals, according to the poll: 69 percent of them now approve of his job performance as compared with 78 percent in November. Likewise, his approval rating has declined among Democrats: to 74 percent from 83 percent. However, there has been no comparable improvement in Mr. Obama’s standing among independents.

These data should be interpreted cautiously. The margin of error among liberal respondents, for instance — a relatively small group of about 165 interviewees — is around 7.5 percentage points, and it is about 5.5 percentage points among Democrats. It is probably worth waiting to see whether a similar trend is manifest in the Gallup tracking poll when Gallup updates its weekly trend data, since Gallup’s sample sizes are about three times larger, making analysis of trends among political subgroups much more reliable. (However, although Gallup has yet to break out its weekly results among individual demographic groups, Mr. Obama’s standing has declined somewhat over all respondents in the poll over the course of the past week.)

Moreover, as we’ve noted previously, liberal dissatisfaction with Mr. Obama may not translate into a willingness to vote against him in 2012. In the Marist poll, Mr. Obama won the support of between 78 and 85 percent of both liberals and Democrats against a group of three potential Republican presidential nominees: Mitt Romney, Sarah Palin, and Mike Huckabee. Essentially, about half the liberals and half the Democrats who disapproved of Mr. Obama’s job performance in the poll were nevertheless unwilling to vote against him for re-election (at least provided that one of those three Republicans was his opponent).

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

Ultimately, all that matters is what the job picture is like in 2012. If it's 8.5 or lower, it will be due in part to this tax cut plan. If it's HIGHER, then the notion that Obama "caved" to the right two years previous will be the LEAST of our problems.

[Skittles]

1. stuck with him

yup

[pocoloco]

10. Not for long!

And he don't seem to care.

[yourout]

2. In a primary I would in a New York minute.

[jpgray]

3. There is more to an election than a vote

The larger the gap between "will vote" and "approve," the more that will become clear. :(

[DJ13]

4. Its not the votes, its the volunteers he needs

Independents dont canvas neighborhoods or staff phone banks.

[otohara]

11. Organizing For America

silent on Obama tax cuts for wealthy, but they wrote letters and tried to convenience people freezing federal workers pay was a good thing.

I've read where many OFA volunteers have unsubscribed.

[Hawkowl]

5. You are high if you think tax cuts will work

Seriously, if you objectively correlate tax cuts with employment growth over the last 30 years, you will find they are DETRIMENTAL to economic recovery. No way, no how is unemployment below 8.5% with the current tax proposal/stimulus. If tax cuts are what passes for economic/industrial policy for Obama he has NO chance at re-election.

[BlueJazz]

8. Absolutely. My friends keep wondering why I have such a dark opinion of Obama...

It's because (by the past) we're doomed to an economy that will flounder.

[Commie Pinko Dirtbag]

13. Offtopic: it came to my knowlege that your awesome sig line was censored.

You can have mine if you want. ↓

[BlueJazz]

15. Yes...I was asked (politely) to take it down. With all the fighting around here lately,

..I thought it would be easier to just "go with the flow"....then start a war/fight.

[Egnever]

12. Oh boy

:eyes:

[high density]

6. Tax cuts didn't work in regards to jobs for Bush or Obama's first two years

I have no idea why it will be different now. Goolsbee was on Meet the Press this morning asserting the tax cuts for the rich will be indefensible in two years... I don't know what he's talking about since we're at this point already. If the economy does improve over the next few years, the argument will be that we can't raise taxes or else the economy will stall (the same argument going on currently).

[DeSwiss]

7. Sounds to me like a choice between.....

...death by a thousand cuts or being bludgeoned to death by some ham-handed Repuke.

- Truth is, I'm sick of the whole lot of them......

[niceypoo]

9. "no comparable improvement in Mr. Obama’s standing among independents"

[Dawgs]

14. Except for one thing, the year 2000.

The economy couldn't be better in 2000 and the liberals still voted for someone other than the Democrats.